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A Persian message for Obama

Washington has done the right thing in accepting Iran's overtures for nuclear swap talks without preconditions as they give Barack Obama a ladder to climb down from his high horse. The United States president may yet come to see that a US-Iran grand bargain has much to offer, and could even help the US avoid what is perilously close to strategic failure in Afghanistan. - M K Bhadrakumar (Jul 30, '10)

Ahmadinejad makes a call to arms
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's hint that Iran could come under attack in the next few months could be a political gamble to make it easier for him to show flexibility on the nuclear question. Simultaneously, allusions to an imminent attack are a call for national mobilization in preparation for confronting the military muscles of a Western superpower and its Israeli ally. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi (Jul 30, '10)


US and Cambodia in controversial lockstep
Cambodia's first-ever multinational peacekeeping exercise took place against the backdrop of increasingly strong ties with the United States military, as Washington puts new emphasis on blocking China's influence. The drills don't sit well with Thai armed forces after skirmishes on the border, and human-rights activists who argue Cambodians need protecting from their own army. - Clifford McCoy (Jul 30, '10)

The (war) games go on
The South Korean navy plans to stage military exercises next week in the Yellow Sea near where one of its ships was sunk in March with the loss of 46 sailors. The United States has still to decide on participation in this drill, but it will join regular monthly war games that both sides have agreed to stage in response to the sinking of the corvette the Cheonan. - Donald Kirk (Jul 30, '10)

China finds a friend in Germany
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to China this month was heavy on business, and with Merkel avoiding sensitive topics the trip marks a new era in bilateral ties that the Chinese see as developing into a truly strategic partnership. Beijing could use a friend - it still has many opponents in Europe. - Jian Junbo (Jul 30, '10)

Hezbollah sees plot behind Hariri tribunal
Hezbollah believes Israel and other opponents are preparing a steady case set to culminate in its being fingered for the assassination of the Rafik Hariri in 2005. If, as a senior Israeli official suggests, its members are indicted at a tribunal into the death of the former Lebanese prime minister, Hezbollah's alliance with Hariri's son Saad, the current prime minister, will shatter and Lebanon will be thrown into political turmoil. - Sami Moubayed (Jul 30, '10)

The end of (military) history
War as a viable instrument of statecraft is headed for the dustbin of history. This does not mean the end of war itself and certainly not of global violence, but of a Western faith in the efficacy of force, of war as "a viable instrument of statecraft", and with it of a belief in big victory and military dominance. - Andrew J Bacevich (Jul 30, '10)



India slips Myanmar a nudge and a wink
Myanmar's Senior General Than Shwe rounded off a five-day visit to India on Thursday after securing pacts that will boost security and economic cooperation between the countries, while also receiving US$70 million in grants. The red carpet laid out for the junta's leader is a sign of Delhi's decision to quietly nudge Myanmar on issues of concern, while playing down sensitive issues such as restoration of democracy. - Sudha Ramachandran (Jul 29, '10)

INTERVIEW
An ancient vision
Pakistan has taken a lot of heat since thousands of classified United States military documents were leaked to the whistle-blower website WikiLeaks, with some Pakistani officials even accusing Washington of trying to smear the country. Julian Assange, the site's founder, puts the record straight. (Jul 29, '10)

Vietnam hedges its China risk
While Vietnam's Communist Party leadership is deeply ambivalent about getting too close to Washington, there is a growing realization that the United States is essential to counter-balancing China's rise. Vietnam is also using its influence as one of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to create a united front, and for good measure also partnering with an old ally. - The Hanoist (Jul 29, '10)

China and Taiwan: In war we trust
Trade ties may deepen, visitor numbers may enlarge, and calls may grow for both sides across the Taiwan Strait to formally end six decades of war. All recent signs show however that amid the buildup of firepower trained at each other, China's and Taiwan's militaries are still light-years away from establishing the mutual trust necessary to end hostilities. - Jens Kastner (Jul 29, '10)

Lee's chance to steer a new course
Northeast Asia after the Cheonan affair is more volatile than it has been since the end of the Cold War. With North Korea off the hook, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has lost the most. A reversal of his policy toward Pyongyang would stem the loss and, more importantly, could restore some sense of stability to the region. - Yong Kwon (Jul 29, '10)

Deep undercurrents stir the Middle East
While the lack of loud threats and military maneuvers in the Middle East suggests that an Israeli strike on Iran is no longer imminent, the intrigue and chess moves taking place across Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and Egypt mean this is more likely a deceptive calm, intended to allow for some intense last-minute negotiations and preparations for a strike. - Victor Kotsev (Jul 28, '10)

US goes fishing for trouble
China's ambiguous expression of the South China Sea as a "core interest" adds to evidence that it has been unable to summon the fortitude to pursue a reasonable resolution of conflicting claims. Once more into the diplomatic breach steps the United States. - Peter Lee (Jul 28, '10)

SINOGRAPH
US toe-dipping muddies
South China Sea

With its announcement last week that disputes over the highly sensitive South China Sea are a "leading diplomatic priority", Washington muddied already complex waters for Beijing. Yet a US presence is desirable for China as it could act as a neutral referee to ease territorial claims that have the potential to unravel the region's economic development. - Francesco Sisci (Jul 28, '10)

Plan B for Afghanistan
The United States could carry on fighting an increasingly problematic war in Afghanistan against the Taliban, planning for a withdrawal that might be endlessly delayed, or it could consider another option. The US and its allies could pull out from the Pashtun regions in the south and east and concentrate on political and economic development in the northern areas, where the insurgency is weak and anti-Taliban sentiment is strong. - Brian M Downing (Jul 28, '10)

Thousands of reasons to leave
The many thousands of leaked United States military documents concerning the war in Afghanistan support the view of insufficient American and allied forces fighting a capable enemy on its home ground and a Pakistan positioning itself for the inevitable outcome. While this reality is not shocking or new, the documents do make the most powerful case yet for withdrawal from Afghanistan sooner rather than later. - George Friedman (Jul 28, '10)

DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
The opposites game
The Pentagon will buy some Russian, not American, helicopters so that special forces can "cloak" the fact they are American. No congressional representatives have gotten upset; no pundits have written editorials; and no reporters have yet followed it up. Historically, imperial powers consider every strange thing they do more or less the norm. For a waning imperial power, however, such an attitude has its own dangers. - Tom Engelhardt (Jul 28, '10)

THE POST-CRISIS OUTLOOK
Pegs, boards and the IMF curse
The instability of unregulated financial markets poses great danger (and the risk of International Monetary Fund intervention) for developing countries, as already seen from Asia to Argentina. And while the Chinese currency is playing an increased role in the global economy, that does not inoculate Beijing's partners against trade disputes. - Henry C K Liu (Jul 28, '10)
This is the 12th article in a series.
Part 11: The folly of common currencies

Pakistan has its own battle to fight
The leaked classified United States military documents that point to Pakistan's links to the Taliban are significant even though the news is not particularly new. They come at a juncture when the lines in Pakistan are clearly drawn between militants and the military, and any misunderstanding between Islamabad and Washington will only benefit the militants. - Syed Saleem Shahzad (Jul 27, '10)

SPENGLER
Murder on the
Khyber Pass Express

Who covered up a scandalous arrangement known to everyone with a casual acquaintance of the Afghan situation? WikiLeaks has added to the evidence that Pakistan has been backing the Taliban, but the facts have long been clear, as has the answer to who covered up: everybody. Two US administrations, India, China and Iran - all are terrified of facing a failed state with nuclear weapons. But at some point the charade must end. (Jul 26, '10)




CHAN AKYA
Unholy trinity sets up more bank failures

The combined bumbling and cowardly efforts of bank authorities in Europe and politicians in the United States this month ensures that a future banking system failure is inevitable. It didn't have to be like this - but bankers, at least, are happy.

MARKET RAP
Asia nudges ahead
Shanghai kept to the fore as Asian markets eased upwards in the week, but with signs of a shortage of stamina. The prospect is of a rough ride as short-term pessimism starts to do battle with longer-term optimism.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.

  <IT WORLD>

Gaming gamble for Google
The growing popularity of social gaming is making the sector the next target for Google, as the search company identifies yet another potentially huge revenue stream and a source for information on Internet users and usage.
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science, gaming and gizmos.

 THE MOGAMBO GURU

Banking insanity
When a central banker gets round to saying things such as "We have to avoid an asymmetry between bold, if justified, loosening and unduly hesitant retrenchment" you just know that the world has gone insane and that nothing makes any sort of sense - except buying gold.




CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Trichet challenges inflationism
Overshadowed by news of bank stress tests, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet made it clear last week the risk of unrelenting government stimulus. Given calls for policymakers in Washington and elsewhere to throw caution to the wind with further spending programs, it is a timely and courageous warning. (Jul 26, '10)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.


"In June 1953, when the first United States intervention to crush the Islamic Revolution in defense of its own interests and those of its close ally the United Kingdom took place, which resulted in Mohammed Reza Pahlevi assuming power ... " - Fidel Castro.

"The Islamic revolution did not come about until 1979-80 and probably never would have had Britain and the USA let well enough alone with Iran back in 1953." - MonsoonWind spots Castro's Freudian slip.

From Our Mailbox
[Re Murder on the Khyber Pass Express, Jul 26] The most shameful part is that the American and international press think that this is a joke or a victory while ignoring the grave consequences that this will bring.
Ysais Martinez
United States
   Go to Letters to the Editor



1. Deep undercurrents stir the Middle East

2. An ancient vision

3. Vietnam hedges its China risk

4. Yellen so wrong

5. Murder on the Khyber Pass Express

6. India slips Myanmar a nudge and a wink

7. China and Taiwan: In war we trust

8. US goes fishing for trouble

9. US accused of raising Afghan militias

10. Lee's chance to steer a new course

(24 hours to 11:59pm ET, Jul 29, 2010)






 
 


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