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THE ROVING EYE
Brazil steps between Israel and Iran
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva this week made the first official visit by a
Brazilian president to Israel. Brazil is emerging as a potential "bridge"
between Iran and those countries that seek to punish Tehran over its nuclear
program. Lula stepping into this arena is a further instance of the BRICs
(Brazil, Russia, India, China) acting as a new rival power to an increasingly
disoriented US, as well as to Washington's ally, Israel. - Pepe Escobar
(Mar 17, '10)
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Checkered record for the world's
policeman
Training national police forces has been a key dimension of United States power
abroad since the Philippines and Haiti in the colonial era through to the
Vietnam and Iraq wars and today in Afghanistan. The result has been a legacy of
torture and terror as political adversaries were dehumanized and police forces
devolved into brutal oppressors. - Jeremy Kuzmarov
(Mar 17, '10)
In defense, China offers cold comfort
China has trimmed its defense budget to below a double-digit percentage rise
for the first time in a decade. The limit on spending dovetails with recent
talk in China of the importance of "soft power" and cultural influence abroad.
The decline could also indicate trying economic times and the scale of social
problems at home. Or maybe it's all about Japan. - Peter J Brown
(Mar 17, '10)
 SINOGRAPH
China rejects siren
song on yuan
As China sees weakness in America's response to the global economic crisis,
Beijing is in no mood to concede to US demands for a revaluation of the yuan.
With the US yet to get its house in order, significant appreciation is unlikely
and, besides, it would have a destabilizing effect not just on China but
throughout the world. - Francesco Sisci (Mar
17, '10)
Iraq, seven years after
At the seven-year mark, the United States-led invasion of Iraq has failed to
bring about most of the expected results, from building democracy in the Middle
East to increasing US national security. There are, however, encouraging
prospects for democracy within Iraq, even if that development favors expelling
the troops that made representative government possible. - Brian M Downing
(Mar 17, '10)
Iran and Syria look to closer ties
Despite ongoing calls from the United States for Syria to sever its ties with
Iran, Damascus and Tehran continue to assert the robustness of their relations,
highlighted by the recent lifting of visa restrictions.
(Mar 17, '10)
Hungry for justice in India
 An
Indian woman who has fasted continuously for almost a decade in protest against
an internal security law has been arrested a sixteenth time for attempted
suicide. Irom Sharmila's followers say the law gives troops unlimited power in
northeastern India and has led to gross human-rights violations, while the army
says it is needed to fight insurgents. - Sudha Ramachandran
(Mar 17, '10)
ASIA HAND
Bloody desperation for
Thailand's reds
The street rally by red-shirted opponents of the government of Thai Prime
Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva began to lose steam in its third day on Tuesday. The
protest was intended as an indication of former prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra's enduring political clout; it now more accurately appears a
reflection of Thaksin's growing political and personal desperation than an
organic pro-democracy movement. - Shawn W Crispin
(Mar 16, '10)
Battle over Afghan peace talks
intensifies
The apparent desire of United States President Barack Obama to immediately
start talks with the Taliban places him at odds with his military leadership
and the field commander in Afghanistan. Even if Obama prevails, whether Taliban
leader Mullah Omar will be invited to the table is another matter entirely. - Gareth
Porter (Mar 16, '10)
Say hello to Marjah ... or 'Little
America'
It is no surprise the United States 
rolled out its new Afghan strategy in the familiar and sympathetic environs of
Helmand. Decades ago, American engineers built most of the province's capital
city, as well as a network of irrigation and drainage canals to take water to
scattered communities, including Marjah, scene of the offensive against the
Taliban. - Peter Lee (Mar 16, '10)
US military targets Israeli
'intransigence'
The diplomatic quarrel between the United States and Israel has reached crisis
levels because when Vice President Joseph Biden said provocative steps by Tel
Aviv endangered the safety of US troops, he was echoing the collective view of
top US military commanders throughout the Middle East. - Jim Lobe
(Mar 16, '10)
China's Panchen Lama enters political
arena
Gyaltsen Norbu, the boy Beijing picked to become the 11th Panchen Lama -
Tibet's second-highest ranking Buddhist figure after the Dalai Lama - has been
appointed to China's top advisory body. China hopes Norbu's political elevation
will enhance his legitimacy, but exiled Tibetans still see him as a puppet and
favor a boy the Dalai Lama chose as the Panchen Lama's true reincarnation. - Saransh
Sehgal (Mar 16, '10)
The politics of empowerment in India
The scoring of political points was more evident than the desire for women's
empowerment when a bill was passed in India's upper house. Fourteen years since
it was ushered in, the bill faces a further lengthy process - time enough for
the opposition to pull back the short-term gains that the furor over the issue
has given the ruling coalition. - Neeta Lal (Mar
16, '10)
Terror state - US style
The only conclusion to be drawn from the US government's policy torpor in the
three years since the financial crisis broke is that the country is now the
greatest failed state in world history, while also becoming a base from which
financial terrorism is exported around the world. - Julian Delasantellis
(Mar 16, '10)
India savors Russian friendship
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's visit to New Delhi to seal military and
civil nuclear deals comes as India is tiring of the United States' regional
policies. Frustrated with the US putting Pakistan's military at the center of
the planned settlement in Afghanistan, India is returning to a past precept -
that with world powers like Russia, it is not possible to cooperate except on
the basis of special relations. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 15, '10)
Pakistan sharpens its focus on
militants
General Ashfaq Parvez Kiani, the chief of Pakistan's army staff and a key ally
of the United States, is due to retire in a few months, but he will remain very
much a part of efforts to break the back of the Taliban in Afghanistan and
militants in Pakistan. The plan is to create a post that would give him
unprecedented control over all three branches of the service. For the
militants, with a spate of attacks, it's business as usual. - Syed Saleem
Shahzad (Mar 15, '10)
 SPENGLER
Obama in more trouble
than Netanyahu over Iran
If the Barack Obama administration attempts to punish Israel for doing what
American public opinion seems to favor - striking Iran's nuclear program - then
Obama is likely to pay the political price. The US administration is hamstrung
by the investment it made in rapprochement with Tehran, which it hoped would
become the pillar on which American regional policy would rest.
(Mar 15, '10)
Israel and the US: Tiff or tipping
point?
Washington's unusually harsh condemnation of Israel's announcement that it
intends to build new housing units in East Jerusalem comes just days before the
biggest event of the year for the "Israel Lobby" in the United States. Though
organizers had hoped to focus on the "existential threat" posed by Iran, they
may now find themselves in a more defensive position. - Jim Lobe
(Mar 15, '10)
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Power lines take shape in Iraq
Although final results are two weeks away, it is emerging from the March 7
elections that Iraq's era of radical political groups is over. The battle for
power is likely to come down to a showdown between Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki and former premier Iyad Allawi - a struggle neither is likely to win.
- Sami Moubayed (Mar 15, '10)
Wen pursues the right to dignity
Premier Wen Jiabao's mention at the National People's Congress of ''people's
happiness and dignity'' shows that the Communist Party is making a fundamental
shift in its approach to human rights. It would be wrong, however, to interpret
Wen's politburo-backed statement as a first step on the road to China
"Westernizing" its concept of rights. - Jian Junbo
(Mar 15, '10)
Iran's spies show how it's done
Iran's capture of its most wanted man, Abdulmalik Rigi, is a setback for the
subversion efforts of the United States in Iran's southeast. The seamless
apprehension of the Jundallah leader also sends an unmistakable message that in
the intelligence wars of the Middle East, Tehran has once again seized the
initiative, and that it can strike against American secret agents operating in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. - Mahan Abedin (Mar
12, '10)
A titanic power struggle in Kabul
Battle lines are being drawn for a power struggle over determining the shape of
a settlement to Afghanistan's insurgency, with main players the United States
and Britain, Pakistan, Iran and Afghan President Hamid Karzai jockeying for
influence. The stakes are high for all protagonists up to and beyond the April
29 traditional Afghan tribal council that Karzai has called in a bid to be
around to steer the transition to peace. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 12, '10)
When the Mekong runs dry
Thailand says dams in China are 
lowering the Mekong River to critical levels, while Beijing blames the water
shortage on a severe drought. Millions of people in the lower Mekong nations
depend on the river for fishing and irrigation, but this quarrel suggests their
governments are powerless in the face of China's water-management. - Brian
McCartan (Mar 12, '10)
<IT WORLD>
Browser beaten
Microsoft's Internet Explorer web browser lost market share again last month,
even before new flaws were discovered in versions 6 and 7 and a European Union
ruling made rival products more easily available to consumers. That slide in
user interest is going to be tough to halt. (Mar 12,
'10)
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos.
South Korea reluctant to take command
United States forces in South Korea are wrestling to set a date to hand over
control of military operations to their hosts. General Walter Sharp, commander
of the American contingent, says with military precision that the top brass in
Seoul will assume command "on 17 April, 2012". The South Koreans seem none too
sure they will be ready. - Donald Kirk (Mar
12, '10)
ALL ROADS LEAD TO KABUL
India seeks a new direction
India's regional foreign policy, largely underscored by confidence in a
relationship with the United States that has now been usurped by Pakistan, is
at a crossroads. A high-level visit by Indians to Afghan President Hamid Karzai
is recognition that new thinking has become necessary, though it might be too
late as Karzai looks to forge an alliance with Islamabad. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 11, '10)
 SUN
WUKONG
Limp arm of the body politic
The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference traditionally opens the
annual political gabfest that is now taking place in Beijing. Even as its
members remain toothless advisors and as public discontent with them grows,
there is every reason for the Communist Party to keep the anachronistic body
alive. - Wu Zhong (Mar 9, '10)
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David P
Goldman
(Mar 16, '10)
The Fed is stuck with loose money just as the Bank of Japan was during the
1990s ...
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Iran-Pakistan
pipeline inches nearer reality
The proposed pipeline taking gas from Iran to Pakistan has moved closer to
reality with the two countries making effective an earlier agreed gas sales
purchase deal. Funding of the Pakistan side of the project remains in doubt,
but China's possible participation might remove that hurdle. - Syed
Fazl-e-Haider
Lada looks for new life
A "cash for clunkers" scheme and Formula One sponsorship could prove a turning
point for AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest automaker and producer of Lada cars, after
a 13-year low in annual sales. The life of an entire town may hinge on it. - Kevin
O'Flynn
Betting the farm on oil
Persistent increases in oil prices - attributable not to speculators but to the
policies of central banks - can dissuade hiring and undermine economic growth.
The world economy may now be locked in a vicious cycle of loose monetary policy
and spiraling oil and commodity price inflation. - Hossein Askari and Noureddine
Krichene
 Debt
doom
Private credit market debt in the United States has, for the first time in more
than 50 years - 50 years!!! - fallen, which is very, very bad news for an
economy that depends on consumption and means that never in the past half
century have we been so doomed.
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FROM THE BLOG
All fall down
Raise US interest rates and the carry trade will come crashing down - and with
it the Treasury market and the mortgage market and the US economy. - David
Goldman
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Q4 'Flow of Funds'
In a more normal environment it would take around US$2 trillion of system
credit growth to sustain the present economic structure in the United States.
The majority of this can be expected to be "federal" credit. The latest Federal
Reserve "Flow of Funds" report offers no reason to change the thesis of a
government finance bubble. (Mar 15, '10)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
MARKET RAP
Buyers beware
A third week of gains in Asian stocks suggests an air of optimism is emerging
in the region. Relatively low volumes and short-term technical indicators also
point to a degree of overbuying. Caution, it appears, remains the watchword.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
(Mar 12, '10)
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Re Obama in more trouble than Netanyahu
over Iran Spengler, ... There is a new wind blowing in the USA. But
don't stop writing. I love it. Thanks. - grandpa
Spengler misses the point, there is a realist faction within both Israel and
the US that believes the Lukud/AIPAC/settler faction is not helping ... This is
straight-up faction politics, realist vs Lukud/AIPAC ... The realists have the
floor, and the realists think that there is no existential threat to Israel;
... and by the way we have other problems ... and that maybe you should think
about someone else beside yourselves ..." - Michael
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ATol Specials
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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan '09) |
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VIDEO
Taliban's new breed of leader
(May '08) |
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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(Holdings), Ltd.
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Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
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