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AN ATOL SPECIAL REPORT
Iran's spies show how it's done
Iran's capture of its most wanted man, Abdulmalik Rigi, is a setback for the
subversion efforts of the United States in Iran's southeast. The seamless
apprehension of the Jundallah leader also sends an unmistakable message that in
the intelligence wars of the Middle East, Tehran has once again seized the
initiative, and that it can strike against American secret agents operating in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. - Mahan Abedin (Mar
12, '10)
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The demise of a 'good-for-nothing
bandit'
Abdulmalik Rigi's Jundallah militants are believed to have killed at least 150
civilians and police officers over the past four years. With Rigi now arrested,
there is speculation his group will fall apart. For many people in Iran's
Sistan and Balochistan province where most of Jundallah's operations took
place, this would be a very welcome development. - Amineh Soghdi
(Mar 12, '10)
A titanic power struggle in Kabul
Battle lines are being drawn for a power struggle over determining the shape of
a settlement to Afghanistan's insurgency, with main players the United States
and Britain, Pakistan, Iran and Afghan President Hamid Karzai jockeying for
influence. The stakes are high for all protagonists up to and beyond the April
29 traditional Afghan tribal council that Karzai has called in a bid to be
around to steer the transition to peace. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 12, '10)
Israel puts US on notice
News of Israel's plans to construct new housing in East Jerusalem shocked
United States Vice President Joe Biden on his arrival in the country. The
Israeli government claims the explosive timing was an unfortunate error; more
likely it was a stern warning to Washington over Iran - hold Israel back from a
strike and there will be consequences. - Victor Kotsev
(Mar 12, '10)
When the Mekong runs dry
Thailand says dams in China are 
lowering the Mekong River to critical levels, while Beijing blames the water
shortage on a severe drought. Millions of people in the lower Mekong nations
depend on the river for fishing and irrigation, but this quarrel suggests their
governments are powerless in the face of China's water-management. - Brian
McCartan (Mar 12, '10)
US, China struggle with mid-life crisis
The influence of a declining United States and the power of a rising China,
coupled with how each meets domestic pressures, will continue to test already
strained ties, putting the two countries on a collision path that neither seeks
nor can gain from. This comes at a time when they have never needed each other
more. - Jing-dong Yuan (Mar 12, '10)
South Korea reluctant to take command
United States forces in South Korea are wrestling to set a date to hand over
control of military operations to their hosts. General Walter Sharp, commander
of the American contingent, says with military precision that the top brass in
Seoul will assume command "on 17 April, 2012". The South Koreans seem none too
sure they will be ready. - Donald Kirk (Mar
12, '10)
 BOOK
REVIEW
Healing invisible wounds
Noor by Sorayya Khan
The scars of the 1971 civil war between East and West Pakistan, which led to
the creation of Bangladesh, are still fresh in the minds of the thousands who
fought or lost loved ones. This book based on a mysteriously artistic child
vividly recreates those horrors, while reminding how little Bangladesh,
Pakistan and India have learned from the war. - Reviewed by Tahir Rauf
(Mar 12, '10)
ALL ROADS LEAD TO KABUL
India seeks a new direction
India's regional foreign policy, largely underscored by confidence in a
relationship with the United States that has now been usurped by Pakistan, is
at a crossroads. A high-level visit by Indians to Afghan President Hamid Karzai
is recognition that new thinking has become necessary, though it might be too
late as Karzai looks to forge an alliance with Islamabad. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Mar 11, '10)
Iran wants help from a friend
During his flying visit to Kabul, President Mahmud Ahmadinejad trumpeted the
fact that Afghan and Pakistani intelligence had cooperated with Iran in the
capture of militant leader Abdulmalik Rigi. Iran wants to extend this
multilateral cooperation to the fight against terrorism and drug trafficking.
This would involve closer cooperation with the United States and foreign troops
in Afghanistan, and therein lies the problem. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 11, '10)
China-US ties strained like never before
This week's United States House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs
hearing over the Google incident in China has shed much light on the
conventional logic that has kept Washington and Beijing engaged in recent
decades. The issues now facing the US and China are straining relations like
never before, leading many Americans to wrestle with whether it makes sense to
even be in a relationship with Beijing at all. - Benjamin A Shobert
(Mar 11, '10)
India's cyber-defenses full of holes
Despite being a software superpower, India lags behind nations such as China in
the security needed to protect critical networks from a cyber-warfare strike.
An attack could cripple government offices and disable India's electrical and
communications grids, while dealing a blow to a myriad of internationally
outsourced operations and a corporate sector that has yet to wake up to the
threat. - Indrajit Basu (Mar 11, '10)
DISPATCHES FROM AMERICA
Premature withdrawal in Iraq
A chorus of the usual Washington suspects is singing even louder for the Barack
Obama administration to alter its plans to get all American troops out of Iraq
by the end of 2011. Basing their arguments on their ability to divine the
future, what they forget is that after the US invasion, Iraq descended into a
monumental bloodbath - in Washington's presence. - Tom Engelhardt
(Mar 11, '10)
China lassoes its neighbors
The China-ASEAN Free-Trade Area, which came into effect in January, should
boost China's trade with its neighbors. It will also likely erode Southeast
Asia's industry and agriculture. Smaller economies in the region are already
paying what will be a big price for a bad deal. - Walden Bello
(Mar 11, '10)
China assesses its gold strategy
A key issue addressed by Chinese leaders at the National People's Congress this
week is whether to let the country's currency rise to help restructure the
domestic economy and rebalance the global economy. An important factor will be
the role gold will play within the basket of China's reserves. - Russell Hsiao
(Mar 10, '10)
China has a Congo copper
headache
 China's
US$9 billion barter deal to develop infrastructure in return for concessions on
copper and cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo was seen as a
win-win for Chinese companies and the African nation. But the project has
fallen foul to the impoverished but resource-rich country's Western creditors,
setting China on a roller-coaster ride that could yet derail the "deal of the
century". - Peter Lee (Mar 10, '10)
Beijing seeks a shift in geopolitics
Beijing is pushing hard to change the rules of the global geopolitical game,
envisioning a more powerful role for China. Although its ongoing tussles with
the United States over issues including Taiwan, Tibet and trade are nothing
new, China wants Washington to know it won’t be shy about playing hardball,
given its much-enhanced global clout. - Willy Lam
(Mar 10, '10)
Marjah fears return of warlords
Now that Afghan and Western  troops
have pushed the Taliban out of the Marjah area, locals fear the return of the
warlords who once terrorized them. One notorious strongman is already preparing
to resume control. If he and others like him do regain influence, it could lead
to the return of the insurgents. - Mohammad Elyas Daee and Abubakar
Siddique (Mar 10, '10)
Iran and Israel play cat and mouse
Iran has long threatened Israel with destruction, while Tel Aviv has not
dismissed launching a pre-emptive strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities. The
war-like rhetoric hints at the antagonism one day spiraling into a real
conflict, but for now it seems more like brinkmanship designed to gain the
upper hand on the diplomatic battlefield. - Mel Frykberg
(Mar 10, '10)
 SINOGRAPH
Different takes on
coping with change
Chinese filmgoers flocking to the futuristic American blockbuster Avatar
are leaving their government-sponsored historical epic Confucius in its
wake. The two movies are reflections of how different cultures respond to times
of great transformation. - Francesco Sisci (Mar
10, '10)
A good bet on cash, tourists and
crime
It's been a month since Singapore's massive Resort World Sentosa opened its
gates, with the city-state's first casino complex attracting thousands of
tourists. Although locals are required to pay a hefty US$71 gambling levy per
entry, a host of social impacts are becoming apparent, including criminal
activity and cheating. - Stanislaus Jude Chan
(Mar 10, '10)
Marjah, the city that never was
Deemed by the United States military as a logistical hub of the Taliban in
Helmand province, Marjah - "a city of 80,000 people" - was chosen to be the
scene of a "large and loud victory". But it turns out Marjah isn't even a town,
but rather one of the clearest and most dramatic examples of a war of
perception as outlined in the US's counter-insurgency doctrine. - Gareth Porter
(Mar 9, '10)
Politicians in bed with India's
'pimp gurus'
A spate of sex and murder scandals involving India's "god-men" - Hindu ascetics
who claim spiritual and mystic powers - has exposed local politicians who
patronize the influential holy men to gain the votes of their millions of
disciples. - Narendra K (Mar 9, '10)
THE ROVING EYE
Oscar night in Baghdad
Hollywood's take on the Iraq War, The Hurt Locker , swept Sunday's
Oscars.  Who
will emerge victorious from Iraq's elections is less clear. Washington favors
former premier Iyad Allawi - once an intelligence asset - over the Shi'ite
incumbent aligned with Iran, Nuri al-Maliki. But ultimately it seems that as
long as Maliki can hasten the Americans' exit, he will emerge triumphant. - Pepe
Escobar (Mar 9, '10)
'Bless you Mr Obama' on Myanmar
While the West boycotts Myanmar, Chinese influence is spreading across the
country. But strong strategic reasons now exist for the United States to
intensify its dialogue with the junta, and for President Barack Obama to change
policy on a "boutique" issue that, as a former aide to opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi put it, is "starving our people''. - Stanley A Weiss
(Mar 9, '10)
 SUN
WUKONG
Limp arm of the body politic
The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference traditionally opens the
annual political gabfest that is now taking place in Beijing. Even as its
members remain toothless advisors and as public discontent with them grows,
there is every reason for the Communist Party to keep the anachronistic body
alive. - Wu Zhong (Mar 9, '10)
US ponders China's Southeast
Asian rise
China's recent growth has entwined its economy more closely with those of
neighbors in Southeast Asia, a trend strengthened by a free-trade agreement
that came into effect this year. That is encouraging a re-evaluation in the
United States of what this means for its own role in the region. - Peter J Brown
(Mar 9, '10)
The great game - asset-trader
style
The United States financial industry, with a US$10 billion advertising budget,
is turning its friendly-faced focus on women, increasingly the family
decision-makers. Yet the love and desire to help the American public evident in
the commercials is often in short supply within the industry's practitioners.
The game is, after all, about making money. Lots of it. - Julian Delasantellis
(Mar 9, '10)
THE BEAR'S LAIR
Accelerator jammed
The retirement of US Federal Reserve vice chairman Donald Kohn means the Fed
will now be loaded with extreme soft-money advocates, ensuring the money
throttle will be jammed open, with only modest interest-rate increases, until
2013. Chairman Ben Bernanke and his new cohorts are about to give Americans a
painful object lesson in the wilder forms of soft monetary policy. - Martin
Hutchinson (Mar 9, '10)
Pakistan delivers but doubts remain
Pakistan has rounded up another al-Qaeda operative, although beyond the fact
that he is senior there is dispute over his identity. Washington will be
delighted, as this follows other recent high-profile arrests, but suspicion
lingers that the generals in Pakistan will always put their own interests
first. Something is being done about that. - Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Mar 8, '10)
Ahmadinejad hunkers down with
Karzai
Iranian President Mahmud Ahmadinejad, on a brief visit to Kabul, brings a
characteristically strong message against the presence of foreign military
forces in Afghanistan and a lengthy agenda topped by concern over burgeoning
opium trafficking and regional security. As the US steps up efforts to impose
UN sanctions on Iran, Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai's seal of approval for
the government in Tehran may be increasingly valuable. - Kaveh L Afrasiabi
(Mar 8, '10)
The PLA raises its voice
People's Liberation Army officers are increasingly making outspoken remarks on
the hard line they feel China should take, particularly towards the United
States. While their fiery rhetoric seems a natural outgrowth of the military's
rising domestic influence, political leaders may also have planted the
statements to surreptitiously rock the boat on strategic issues. - Peter J Brown
(Mar 8, '10)
Now the hard part for Iraq - and
the US
 Despite
poll-day violence, the high turnout on Sunday of close to 70% of the electorate
gives Iraq's parliamentary elections the stamp of success. That might have been
the easy part; what comes next is political bargaining that could run for
months. It will be a crucial period - how and when the new government is formed
will directly influence Washington's relations with Baghdad. - Charles McDermid
(Mar 8, '10)
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David P
Goldman
(Mar 11, '10)
[There is] a dangerous buildup of bad credits [in China's banking system].
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Medvedev
plays
down power role
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev argues that economic growth driven by exports
of fuel and other commodities is losing its relevance for the country. Yet as
he watches gas monopoly Gazprom decline from its past glories and Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin tout a doubtful pipeline, he knows that with the
opening of the US$98 billion Yukos trial in Europe, the power game in Moscow is
far from over. - Pavel K Baev
MARKET RAP
Buyers beware
A third week of gains in Asian stocks suggests an air of optimism is emerging
in the region. Relatively low volumes and short-term technical indicators also
point to a degree of overbuying. Caution, it appears, remains the watchword.
R M Cutler runs his eye over the ups and downs in the week's markets.
Browser beaten
Microsoft's Internet Explorer web browser lost market share again last month,
even before new flaws were discovered in versions 6 and 7 and a European Union
ruling made rival products more easily available to consumers. That slide in
user interest is going to be tough to halt.
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos.
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 A
debtor's dream
It is absolutely creepy how everyone from the Greek government to consumers in
the United States believes that some magic trick will enable debtors to get rid
of their debts without paying anybody anything, while allowing creditors to get
all their money back without being paid anything by anybody. Creepy? Insane!!!
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FROM THE BLOG
No benefit to US
China's economy will continue to grow but it simply lacks the infrastructure
and financial mechanisms to grow at a rate sufficient to move the needle in the
US economy. - David Goldman
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
An off-limits bubble
United States government finance is today's unfolding bubble, yet while
politicians talk tough for regulatory reform of the financial markets, this is
one bubble off-limits for such reform. There will be no serious effort to rein
in deficits, while markets know they've got policymakers right where they want
them. (Mar 8, '10)
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
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Re China has a Congo copper headache
"... [T]he Chinese appear to be trying to create a win-win situation by seeing
that the Africans get something out of the trade. The infrastructure-for-ore
swap that features in the article being a case in point. Yet instead of trying
to help things along, the Western powers appear to be doing all within their
power to obstruct and frustrate the process - to the detriment of the Congo ...
why the Western "dog in the manger" policy on African resources? ..." - MonsoonWind
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From Our Mailbox
[Re China-US ties strained
like never before, March 11] "The Google Predicament" simply highlights
the raw nerve of issues between Washington and Beijing. Intemperate language
from both camps plays well to domestic audiences but does not in the least cool
uninformed tempers.
Mel Cooper
Singapore
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to Letters to the Editor |
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ATol Specials
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By Syed Saleem Shahzad
(Jan '09) |
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VIDEO
Taliban's new breed of leader
(May '08) |
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The
Gates
Inheritance
By
Roger Morris
(June '07) |
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Syed Saleem Shahzad reports on
the Afghan war from the Taliban side
(Dec '06)
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How
Hezbollah defeated Israel
By
Mark Perry and
Alastair Crooke
(Oct '06)
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Mark
Perry and
Alastair Crooke
talk to the 'terrorists'
(Mar '06)
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China:
The
Impossible
Revolution
By
Francesco Sisci
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The Coming
Trade War
By Henry C K Liu
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A series
by Henry C K Liu
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Sinoroving
Pepe Escobar in China
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Money, Power
and
Modern Art
A series by Henry C K Liu
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Andre Gunder Frank on Uncle Sam and his
shrinking dollar
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By Pepe Escobar with
photographs by Kevin Nortz
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Nir Rosen goes inside the Iraqi
resistance
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Nir Rosen rides with the US 3rd
Armored Cavalry in western Iraq
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