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Iran nuclear talks gaining traction
Iran's leadership is confidently reassuring the public that any nuclear deal
with the "Iran Six" in Baghdad talks on Wednesday will not sacrifice the
national interest. Tehran has calculated that France's presidential change and
the eurozone crisis have sapped Europe's fighting spirit, with the need to keep
oil prices stable before November's election also cooling hawkish sentiment in
the United States. - M K Bhadrakumar (May 21,
'12)
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Chen hands Beijing a hollow victory
As Chen Guangcheng settles in New York, Beijing can rest assured that its
efforts to minimize domestic fallout over the blind activist's escape have
worked well and that Chen is effectively silenced. However, this Pyrrhic
victory does nothing to address the deep-rooted corruption in local politics
that Chen suffered imprisonment and torture to agitate against.
- Kent Ewing (May 21, '12)
 THE
ROVING EYE
War and cheeseburgers
The new cheeseburger diplomacy, sealed at the Oval Office by President Barack
Obama and French President Francois Hollande, is supposed to save Greece,
revamp the eurozone and reignite the US economy, just in time for the November
US presidential election. It also means agreeing to talk some more with Iran.
- Pepe Escobar (May 21, '12)
Cold comfort for Japan-South Korea
ties
The intractable issue of compensation for women forced into sexual slavery
during Japan's World War II occupation of South Korea looks likely to undermine
the US-led united front against China's naval expansion and North Korea's
nuclear ambitions. Stirred in part by nationalist pressure in the run-up to
presidential elections in the South, the gap between the two sides' perceptions
on the sensitive issue remains as wide as it ever was.
- Kosuke Takahashi (May 21, '12)
 SPENGLER
What if Facebook is
really
worth $100 billion?
Facebook and its social media imitators diminish us by substituting
unpredictable human interaction with a pre-arranged display window whose
purpose is to block our gaze from the real person behind it. Sadly, the system
- and its raison d'etre to advertise one's conformity to commercial culture
while preserving the illusion of individuality - is worth a great deal of
money. And even sadder, it is unlikely to fail. (May
21, '12)
Taliban seek support 'in
Rushdie's name'
Taliban members have sent death threats to professors at the University of
Peshawar, who they claim have put Satanic Verses author Salman Rushdie
on the curriculum. Invoking fictitious links with the novelist, a lightning rod
for Muslim opinion, is seen as a desperate bid to boost the Taliban's
popularity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where insurgents have blown up about 800
schools in the past five years.
- Ashfaq Yusufzai (May 22, '12)
Taiwan's Ma plays it cool
Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's re-inauguration speech on Sunday didn't
sketch a roadmap for unification with China, as some had expected. Ma instead
attacked Beijing's human-rights policy, praised his island's defense industry
and denied a cross-strait peace agreement was being planned, with critics
seeing Washington's hand at work.
- Jens Kastner (May 21, '12) |
SPEAKING FREELY
Europe's lost model identity
The European Union, its voters in anti-austerity overdrive, is giving up the
one geopolitical "weapon" in play since the end of the Cold War: the sense of
the political and economic experiment as a venture worth emulating. As a model
for developing Southeast Asia, the EU is in reverse - replicating low wages,
tough working conditions and weak social security.
- Emanuele Scimia (May 21, '12)
 To submit to
Speaking Freely click
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The riddle of Scarborough Shoals
In the matter of the Scarborough Shoal mess, the Philippines started it and the
infamous Chinese nine-dash line encompassing almost the entire South China Sea
looks like an audacious claim drawn from an appetite for aggression. A closer
look reveals that there is some genuine method to Beijing's madness, and a
chance that gas and greed, rather than international law and principle, may
salvage peace in the South China Sea.
- Peter Lee (May 18, '12)
THE
ROVING EYE
NATO occupies
sweet home Chicago
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization hopes that If you can't beat them in
Pashtunistan, you can at least corral them in the home of the blues, with
NATO's Chicago summit planned to instill in members the "common values" behind
drone warfare and base expansion. As riot police lock down the city, some
partners likely fear they've married into the mob. - Pepe Escobar
(May 18, '12)
US Iran hawks in some disarray
Hopes by Iran hawks for the United States Congress to provide enough ammunition
to threaten Iran with a military strike on the eve of critical talks over
Tehran's nuclear program have fallen unexpectedly short. The House has
retracted its talons, while over in the Senate a new sanctions bill was blocked
by Republicans because it wasn't sufficiently aggressive.
- Jim Lobe (May 18, '12)
Tehran: To talk or not to talk
The possibility of direct talks between the United States and Iran emerged in
January when new sanctions gave the White House political cover to revert to a
policy of engagement. However, Tehran's profound mistrust of American sincerity
hampers progress. The only sensible way forward is to let bygones be bygones
and work through an intermediary such as Turkey or Oman.
- Peter Jenkins (May 18, '12)
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The 'illogic' of China's North Korea
policy
China's refusal to use its leverage as North Korea's friend and protector to
halt its provocations strengthens the United States alliance system that
Beijing considers a tool of encirclement. As Pyongyang blithely continues with
missile launches and other acts that undermine China in the international
arena, it seems hard to image a policy more damaging to Chinese national
interests. - Ralph A Cossa and Brad Glosserman
(May 18, '12)
<IT WORLD>
Facebook floats
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg is now officially worth close to US$20 billion
after successfully bringing off the initial public offering for his young
social network site. Fans keen to grab a piece of the company may have to pay
50% more than the initial price when the shares start trading Friday.
(May 18, '12)
Martin J Young surveys the week's developments in computing, science,
gaming and gizmos.
BOOK REVIEW
Cherry-picking from
China's
success
What the US Can Learn from China by Ann Lee
This book forces the reader to confront China's growth in the midst of
America's decline, drawing attention to the reasons US politics became too
self-serving, too short-sighted and too partisan. The author doesn't argue the
Chinese approach is flawless, but she does hold up China's single-minded
fixation on economic growth and a leadership process based on experience as
examples US policymakers must consider. - Benjamin Shobert
(May 18, '12)
Why ceasefires fail in Myanmar
Myanmar's Kachin opposition isn't following the rapprochement moves other
ethnic insurgent groups are taking towards the government - it has seen first
hand the results of "peace". A 1994 ceasefire deal facilitated rapacious
development that caused massive environmental degradation and social upheaval.
This and the tale of how the Kachin Independence Army took a corrupt slice of
those spoils provide a cautionary tale for fellow rebels. - Francis Wade
(May 17, '12)
 SINOGRAPH
Chen case hints at crack
in old
consensus mold
China and the United States were able to reach two agreements about the fate of
the blind dissident lawyer Chen Guangcheng in less than 48 hours - a feat
unthinkable in the era of consensus politics that started after Mao Zedong's
demise. That a crack in the old mold shows a leaner power structure, with
mandates for individuals to make quick decisions, could emerge as a legacy of
President Hu Jintao.
- Francesco Sisci (May 17, '12)
Dim prospects for political-legal
reform
China's labyrinthine police-state machinery continues in overdrive, with more
spent on the huge network of cadres and informants who maintain stability than
on the military budget. The urge to preserve the Maoist "one voice chamber" and
prevent dissidents from exploiting factional strife means the 18th party
congress is unlikely to tinker, even after the bad publicity generated by Chen.
- Willy Lam (May 17, '12)
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 CHAN
AKYA
Penalty
shoot-out -
the political edition
English soccer team Chelsea emphatically showed that context and chance can
overcome all expectations in the sporting arena, a point relevant for leaders
of the Group of Eight nations engrossed by Saturday's European final when
applied to their own bitter political and economic games.
New 'brics' in ASEAN's wall
Members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations keen to join the big
economies of the developing world should make a priority, individually and
collectively, of dealing with the small "bric" - bureaucracy, regulation,
interventionism and corruption - if they want to better compete in 2015 and
beyond. - Curtis S Chin
Dimon's gambit
US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's call for JPMorgan Chase's Jamie Dimon to
quit his position on the New York Federal Reserve Board is mere grandstanding.
The bank lost $3 billion-plus, but played by the rules set by the Fed and the
Treasury - the real guilty parties. - Henry C K Liu
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
The jig is up
One remarkable feature of JPMorgan Chase's recent US$3 billion-plus loss is
boss Jamie Dimon's lack of familiarity with the details in spite of prior
publicity on the bank's precarious position. Yet his incredible complacency
merely mirrors that of the wider financial world.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
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Putin,
Obama and Noah's cats
Over all these years since 1975 when I reached Moscow on my first assignment in
the former USSR, I was privileged to watch from the sidelines many a
Russian-American high-level exchange. The learning curve will never end, but in
the run-up to the exchanges, especially summit level meetings, what often came
to mind was a cute little "Biblical" story about Noah and the cats ... - M K
Bhadrakumar
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