SUN
WUKONG Rumor aside, a smooth transition is
assured By Wu Zhong, China
Editor
HONG KONG - Recent reports by
China's state-run media about the smooth
preparations for the Chinese Communist Party's
(CCP's) 18th National Congress strongly indicate
that the long-awaited party meeting to decide a
power transition will be held as scheduled in the
autumn. This is despite speculation at home and
overseas that it might be postponed due to the
fall of Bo Xilai, former Chongqing CCP secretary
and one of the 25 members of the powerful
politburo.
Before his dismissal, Bo had
been widely tipped to become one of the candidates
for the new nine-member Politburo Standing
Committee to be endorsed at the congress, which
marks a transition of power after 10 years of rule
under President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen
Jiabao.
Now the party has to reach a
consensus on Bo's replacement, which surely will
take time. This is a plausible reason for the
speculation about a
possible postponement of the five-yearly party
meeting.
On April 11, Reuters reported:
In one sign of the Party's unease, a
source with ties to top leaders said the
Communist Party was considering a proposal to
delay the opening of the party congress to
"shorten the transition period" between when the
new leaders take their party posts and when they
take their state posts in March 2013. The source
spoke on condition of anonymity.
[1]
But Reuters did not play it up -
it did not make it the headline of the story of
the day, but instead put this paragraph near the
end of the story.
However, this was
quickly picked up and highlighted by a number of
overseas media outlets and news websites. Some
immediately did follow-up stories. For instance, a
normally reliable overseas-based Chinese-language
China-watching website carried an "exclusive"
story on April 17, saying that the politburo had
just held two closed-door meetings and had
eventually agreed to postpone the congress until
December or next spring. Quoting unnamed political
sources in Beijing, the report said this was
because the dismissal of Bo had "interrupted the
preparations for the party congress including
personnel arrangements".
Nevertheless,
reports on China's state-run media last week said
preparations for the 18th party congress seem to
be going smoothly.
For example, the
People's Daily, the CCP's flagship newspaper, said
on May 3 that "at present, the elections" of the
2,200-plus deputies to the 18th party congress are
going as scheduled. By April 27, 12 provinces
including Beijing, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Jilin and
Shandong have already decided on their deputies
(who in fact are not really "elected"
democratically but nominated by grassroots party
organs and decided by higher authorities).
The People's Liberation Army (PLA) Daily
also reported that deputies to the 18th party
congress representing the PLA and the paramilitary
People's Armed Police (PAP) have been nominated
for the final approval of the Central Military
Commission (CMC). There is no problem for other
"constituencies" to complete their selections of
deputies before June 30 - the set deadline.
On May 2, the state-run Xinhua News Agency
carried another editorial to continue criticizing
some overseas media outlets for "fabricating and
spreading rumors" about a power struggle within
the CCP over the dismissal of Bo. Similar as its
rhetoric is to that of its previous several
editorials, [2] this latest Xinhua offering
contains an interesting message:
It has been well announced that the
Party will hold its 18th National Congress in
autumn of this year. At present, preparations
are going on orderly in accordance with rules
set by the Party Charter. Chinese people feel
happy and inspired with the progress. But some
overseas hostile elements and a few overseas
media outlets with ulterior motives, eager to
gain publicity, are making rash speculations on
the 18th party congress. For those who have
internal information or know the ropes, such
reports full of words like "possible", "maybe"
or "learned" are totally ungrounded and violate
the code of journalism ethics.
[3]
This message is interesting
because, for one thing, it specifies that the 18th
party congress will be held "in autumn of this
year", in contrast to the official announcement of
the CCP Central Committee that it would be held
"in the latter half of 2012". In China, autumn is
generally considered to run from September to
November.
For another thing, this shows
the CCP wants to put people's minds at ease that
there is no change to the schedule of its
congress. In other words, the CCP does not take
lightly overseas media reports about possible
postponement of the party meeting, in fear they
might endanger stability in the country.
Still, Reuters dispatched an exclusive
story on May 8 - this time headlined "China
considers delay of key party congress - sources".
It said:
China's ruling Communist Party is
seriously considering a delay in its upcoming
five-yearly congress by a few months amid
internal debate over the size and makeup of its
top decision-making body, sources said, as the
party struggles to finalize a once-in-a-decade
leadership change.
The top party leaders
are considering a proposal to move the 18th
congress, originally scheduled for September or
October, to between November and January, three
sources said, in a step that has been taken
twice before in the past five congresses.
The delay would primarily aim to shorten
the transition for the new leaders, who will be
announced at the congress but are not due to
start in their new state roles until March 2013,
said the sources, who all have knowledge of the
party's deliberations. [4]
Technically and strictly speaking, it
could be called a "delay" only if the CCP was to
hold the meeting in 2013 because it would be later
than "the latter half of 2012". But as the Xinhua
message implies, it will be held in autumn or
before the end of November following the party's
tradition. According to party rules and adopted
practice, the current central committee will hold
its last plenary session to endorse the agenda of
the 18th congress shortly before its convention.
Any considerable delay of a party congress
would be a serious matter for the party.
In the history of the CCP, apart from in
war time, only late Chairman Mao Zedong had the
authority and guts to arbitrarily move ahead or
put off a congress. After Mao's death in September
1976, Deng Xiaoping vowed and devoted efforts to
restoring the operation of the party to normal. In
August 1977, the CCP held its 11th congress. Since
then, it has held its national congresses every
five years, mostly in October or occasionally a
little bit earlier (except the 16th congress which
was held in early November 2002).
And to
prevent Mao's "mistake", the CCP adopted a new
constitution at its 12th National Congress in
1982. It stipulates in Article 18, "The National
Congress of the Party is held once every five
years and convened by the Central Committee. It
may be convened before the normally scheduled date
if the Central Committee deems it necessary or if
more than one third of the organizations at the
provincial level so request. Except under
extraordinary circumstances, the Congress may not
be postponed." [5]
Bo's dismissal can
certainly not be considered an "extraordinary
circumstance". Even the CCP itself does not want
to politicize it, sparing no pains to play it down
as an isolated "criminal case".
During the
past three decades, two party general secretaries,
Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang, were disgraced
respectively in 1987 and 1989 for their tolerance
towards political liberalization and student-led
pro-democracy demonstrations, and another two
politburo members, Chen Xitong (former Beijing
party secretary), and Chen Liangyu (former
Shanghai party secretary) were sacked for
corruption in 1996 and 2006 and jailed later.
Not to mention Hu and Zhao, even the two
Chens held more important posts than Bo when they
were sacked as Beijing and Shanghai are far more
political and economically important
municipalities than Chongqing. None of the four
cases interrupted a scheduled party congress and
there is no reason to believe the CCP would delay
its 18th congress simply because of the fall of
Bo.
Any notable delay of the congress
could produce a political shock much more severe
than the dismissal of Bo. People would become even
more alarmed, wondering what is going on in the
party leadership because of the interruption in
"normal" operations. Speculation and rumors would
become rife to threaten political and social
instability. And the CCP leadership would owe
party members and the general public a convincing
explanation.
Party cadres hopeful to move
up the hierarchical ladder would feel disappointed
and upset too, as the CCP now implements a
compulsory retirement system.
An official
reaching a certain age must retire and an official
over a certain age limit will not be promoted. A
delay may dash many officials' hopes for promotion
as they would pass their age limits, and Hu and
Wen may then be blamed for trying to stay in power
for a longer period of time.
In recent
years, there have been calls (as part of political
reforms) for the CCP to set a later date (such as
December) for its national congress, or move ahead
the National People's Congress (NPC, normally
convened in early March), so as to shorten the
period of power transition when there is a
reshuffle at the top.
According to China's
power structure, the CCP general secretary also
concurrently takes the posts as state president.
The party general secretary is decided by a party
congress. But according to China's constitution,
the state president must be elected by the NPC.
For example, this time, Xi Jinping is
tipped to replace Hu as the party general
secretary at the 18th congress. But he will have
to wait until next March to succeed Hu as
president. Hence, there is an interval of a few
months before the completion of the power
transition. Opponents to the proposal have argued
that this may ensure a smooth power transition as
the new leader may need some time to adjust
himself to his new jobs - in a democracy, there is
often an interval before a leader-elect takes
power.
But this would not be a good time
for the CCP to make changes, even if some leaders
may want to. The best time would be when there is
no major power transition. For instance, without
unexpected accidents and incidents, Xi is expected
to remain as China's supreme leader for the next
10 years, hence there is no major power transition
to be decided at the 19th party congress in 2017.
It then would be good time to make the change.
All in all, at the center of world
attention, whether the CCP will be able to convene
its 18th National Congress will serve as a
barometer to measure China's political situation.
Unless there is some unexpected "extraordinary"
incident (such as a war in the South China Sea or
a devastating natural disaster), it is very
unlikely the party meeting will be postponed.
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