ALL CHANGE IN
FRANCE ... China takes on new
importance By David Gosset
Since economic, political and strategic
relations between Europe and China are not
commensurate with their mutual appreciation and
reciprocal attraction, a formidable potential for
synergy between the two edges of the continent is
still to be unleashed.
New French
President Francois Hollande faces obvious but
daunting challenges on the economic front at home
and in the eurozone, but the nature of the
relations he will forge with China, the 21st
century's most important factor of change, will
also define his presidency.
At a time when
the distribution of power is shifting rapidly -
when Nicolas Sarkozy became French president five
years ago, France's gross domestic product (GDP)
was 73% of China's GDP, it will be 33% in 2012 and
less than 25% in 2017 - leaders
have to question their
assumptions and reevaluate their priorities.
The new resident of the Elysee Palace and
the leadership which will emerge from the 18th
National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
of China can open a new chapter in the Sino-French
relations, contribute to the deepening of the
links between Brussels and Beijing and take
Sino-Western synergy to another level.
Hollande, who does not share his
predecessor's reverence for the United States, is
in a position to have a more independent policy
toward China, and if the White House has certainly
gained a partner in its quest for economic growth,
it can no longer view Paris as an acquiescent and
unconditional ally.
At the coming 25th
North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit in
Chicago, which will focus on the alliance's
commitment to Afghanistan, Hollande will announce
the withdrawal of French troops from the Central
Asian country before the end of the year.
To use the words of former French foreign
minister Hubert Vedrine, Hollande considers France
and the US as "friends, allies but not aligned" -
"amis, allies mais pas alignes."
During his long campaign the socialist
candidate underlined the importance of stable
relations between the two permanent members of the
UN Security Council - by contrast with the
fluctuations of the Sarkozy era - but, in
reference to the 27 billion euros (US$35 billion)
trade deficit with China in 2011, also called for
more balanced economic relations between the two
countries.
The French president will meet
his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao at the Group of
20 (G-20) Mexico summit, and only several hours
after his historic victory he received Kong Quan,
the Chinese ambassador to France, on May 7 for an
encounter that followed a conversation with
Charles Rivkin, the top American diplomat in
Paris.
After a phone call with the German
Chancellor Angela Merkel on the day of his
election, the series of exchanges composed a
highly relevant sequence in a century which will
be largely characterized by the interactions
between Washington, Brussels and Beijing. Besides,
by choosing a China expert, Paul Jean-Ortiz, as
his top diplomatic adviser three days after his
victory, Hollande signaled that he put in place a
team especially in step with the Chinese dynamics.
In his discussion with the Chinese envoy,
Hollande vowed to further Sino-French cooperation,
asked for the two countries to strengthen
collaboration in the Group of 20 and insisted on
the necessity to push forward economic links.
Clearly, there is considerable space for
improvement, the Sino-French trade represented in
2011 only 40% of the Sino-German trade whose
amount reached 144 billion euros - a third of the
total European Union-China trade.
A
renewed bilateral relationship can certainly
contribute to enlarge the horizon of the
Sino-European relations, Paris can act as a
catalyst for a more autonomous EU external policy
toward Beijing. It is becoming urgent for the
European policymakers to design mechanisms in
order to attract Chinese investment in Europe -
China will invest more than $1 trillion abroad in
the coming decade - they should grant China market
economy status. This in any case will be accorded
to Beijing under the World Trade Organization
rules from December 11 2016 - lift an inopportune
and counterproductive arms embargo, closely
consult China on security issues, and work on
ambitious Sino-European cooperation in third
countries - from Africa to Central Asia.
Some commentators have noticed that the
relations between Beijing and the French left have
been unsteady at times - it was under Francois
Mitterrand at the beginning of the 1990s that
Paris sold Lafayette-class frigates to Taiwan -
and others have expressed concerns about the new
French president's lack of international
experience.
However, the 2012 French
presidential election offers at least two obvious
lessons. First, Hollande has systematically proved
wrong those who underestimated him, and second,
though his victory marks a return for more
turbulent moments in politics, what will prevail
is the political determination to put Sino-French
relations into strategic and long-term
perspective.
In his congratulatory message
to the new French leader, Hu mentioned "the
long-time friendship and cooperation between China
and France which is significant in safeguarding
and promoting global peace, stability and
development".
In 1964 following the
decision of Charles De Gaulle, France was the
first among the major Western countries to
establish diplomatic relations with Beijing at the
ambassadorial level, and under Hollande's
presidency, Paris and Beijing will celebrate the
50th anniversary of this historical moment.
Often neglected by international
relations' theories, the chemistry between leaders
is central to the reality of world affairs, and if
the new French leader and his Chinese counterpart
want this qualitative dimension to fully play its
role, they will have to multiply the occasions for
direct and relatively long interactions in the
appropriate conditions.
While Sarkozy and
Hu were never really able to work as a duo - they
were in fact forced by the financial turmoil to
simply normalize the relations after a too long
period of mistrust - Hollande and Xi Jinping,
China's most likely next leader, whose characters
and styles seem highly compatible, might be able
to match in their own way the understanding which
characterized the connection between Jacques
Chirac and Jiang Zemin.
On January 31,
1964, in the Elysee Palace, Charles De Gaulle
concluded a press conference by a remark on what
he called the "affinities" between France and
China. These cultural and historical "affinities"
have to be reactivated and serve as the fulcrum of
a new joint global ambition.
The world is
greatly benefiting from the French and Chinese
humanistic traditions, but in a century of
unprecedented interdependence, it is the quality
of their articulation which can make a difference.
David Gosset is director of the
Academia Sinica Europaea at China Europe
International Busines School (CEIBS), Shanghai,
Beijing and Accra, and founder of the Euro-China
Forum.
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