The extraordinary Op-Ed in the Washington
Post on Tuesday, "An alliance the world can count
on", co-authored by the United States President
Barack Obama and British Prime Minister David
Cameron on the eve of the latter's visit to the
US, announced beforehand that their talks would
largely focus on Afghanistan, Iran and Syria,
although there is no dearth of engrossing topics
they could discuss - ranging from G-8 and G-20 to
the Global Fund for AIDS, TB and Malaria and
saving lives in Somalia.
So, what's the
take? The Obama-Cameron joint press conference
Wednesday at the White House provides some
fascinating insights into what can be expected
apropos the three "hotspots" of US foreign policy
in the near term.
On
Afghanistan Actually, contrary to what one
may imagine, things are going rather well in
Afghanistan. There is no denying that this is a
"very difficult" war, but Obama pointed out,
"What's also undeniable, though - and what we can
never forget - is that our forces are
making very real
progress: dismantling al Qaeda; breaking the
Taliban's momentum; and training Afghan forces."
Even discounting that Obama was exuding
confidence in front of the domestic American
audience, the overall US strategy in Afghanistan
is on course. Significantly, despite the recent
"anti-Americanism" in Afghanistan, Washington
expects the strategic pact with Kabul signed
before the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
(NATO) Chicago summit in May. NATO's "combat
mission" will end in 2014, but the alliance also
proposes to remain in Afghanistan in "an enduring
commitment".
On Iran Obama
sounded reticent by saying "the window for solving
this [Iran nuclear] issue diplomatically is
shrinking". Put simply, Washington is urging
Tehran to get its act together.
"We will
do everything we can to resolve this
diplomatically, but ultimately, we've got to have
somebody on the other side of the table who's
taking this seriously. And I hope that the Iranian
regime understands that; that this is their best
bet for resolving this," said Obama.
There
is a whole history behind the US-Iran standoff
whereby the acute factionalism within the Iranian
regime - and the turf war within successive US
administrations - has blocked the possibilities of
genuine, meaningful negotiations even as
politicians or interest groups (on both sides)
resort to heightened rhetoric or grandstanding.
Conceivably, Cameron too would have cautioned
Obama to make haste slowly and cautiously when it
comes to Iran.
On Syria The
Obama-Cameron talks seem to have dwelt at length
on Syria. At the press conference, the two leaders
implied that no matter the string of success that
the Syrian army may be currently scoring on the
ground by evicting the rebels from major cities,
the US and UK are nowhere near willing to concede
that President Bashar al-Assad is consolidating
power.
On the other hand, the
Anglo-American juggernaut continues to roll on in
pursuit of the strategy of forcing a regime change
in Syria - except that the new word is
"transition". Any calibration would be merely over
the methodology of bringing about the desired
denouement of the removal of Assad from power.
The preoccupation at the moment is to get
the humanitarian mission going - "in a robust way"
- while knocking the heads of the opposition
together so that they stop squabbling and arrive
at some degree of unity that would qualify them as
eligible recipients of vastly bigger Western
support.
Significantly, the director of
the Central Intelligence Agency, David Petraeus,
paid a surprise two-day visit to Ankara on Monday
and had detailed consultations with his Turkish
counterpart, Hakan Fidan, regarding "more fruitful
cooperation on the region's most pressing issues
in the coming months". Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan received Petraeus.
Turkey is a key player in any form of US
gameplan toward Syria, and it is imperative for
Washington to be on exactly the same wavelength as
the Turks are needed not only on a political and
diplomatic plane but also at the operational
level.
One aspect that worries Ankara is
fallout from the Syrian crisis for Turkey's
Kurdish problem. Petraeus reportedly discussed the
further strengthening of the intelligence-sharing
mechanism between the US and Turkey which has been
in place since 2007.
Petraeus's
consultations in Ankara also point toward
Washington's determination not to let up on the
agenda of regime change in Syria. Obama has come
under pressure to heed the Saudi sensitivities,
with Riyadh conveying its displeasure - most
recently with the visiting German foreign minister
- over the US's hesitation to arm the Syrian
opposition.
The Saudis have threatened
that, with or without the US, Riyadh intends to go
ahead with arms supplies and other help for the
Syrian opposition. Obama said at the press
conference on Wednesday: "I'll say it again: Assad
will leave power. It's not a question of if, but
when. And to prepare for that day, we'll continue
to support plans for a transition to support the
legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people."
He implied that US support for the mission
undertaken by Kofi Annan, the joint envoy of the
UN and Arab League, is quite focused - namely, to
"make the case for the transition" in Damascus.
Obama failed to speak a kind word about
the tireless efforts by Russia to kickstart a
Syrian dialogue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov drew up a five-point plan after intensive
talks in Cairo over the weekend with the Arab
League, which Beijing promptly endorsed as a
"formula [that] has a realistic and positive
significance to the political resolution of the
Syrian issue".
The 5-point plan suggests:
1. End of violence from all sources;
2. Impartial monitoring mechanism;
3. No outside interference;
4. Unimpeded access for humanitarian
assistance to all Syrians;
5. Strong support for former UN secretary
general Kofi Annan's mission to launch political
dialogue between the government and all opposition
groups as mandated by the terms of reference
endorsed by the UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon
and the Arab League.
Washington and London
would have a rather simple, straightforward
proposition for Moscow and Beijing: Just walk in
and share with the rest of the P-5 the same goal,
"including through a new United Nations Security
Council resolution". In fact, Cameron didn't miss
the opportunity to single out Russia for some
plain-speaking, lamenting that Moscow doesn't
really know what is in its own interests over the
Syrian situation in the long run.
Meanwhile, Obama emphasized that a lot of
ground work remains to be done - a Libya-like
intervention won't work in Syria; think through
the operational details before acting on the
ground ("Our military plans for everything. That's
part of what they do."); encourage greater unity
among the Syrian opposition groups; sustain the
tempo of the diplomatic campaign against the
Syrian regime; await the outcome of Kofi's efforts
to bring about a "transition"; and, of course,
keep piling pressure on Moscow to surrender Assad
to destiny.
The bottom line is that
Washington and London estimate that time works in
their favor and increasingly Russia and China will
begin to feel the heat of international isolation.
Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a
career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His
assignments included the Soviet Union, South
Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan,
Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
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