Israel stokes the 'Iran
threat' By Kaveh L Afrasiabi
Germany's highly public delivery last week
to Israel of its fourth nuclear-armed capable
submarine has been accompanied by Israeli spin
regarding its significance as a warning signal to
Iran, thus raising the question of timing: why is
Israel tacitly presenting the specter of a nuclear
attack on Iran when Tehran is showing signs of
compromise in the ongoing talks on Tehran's
nuclear program?
The "P5+1", also known as
the "Iran Six" - the permanent members of the
United Nations Security Council (the United
States, Britain, France,
China and Russia) plus Germany - are due for
another round of talks this month with Iran in
Baghdad, Iraq.
Israeli Defense Minister
Ehud Barak said the submarine would increase
Israel’s capabilities and strength "in the face of
the growing regional challenges".
The
Dolphin-type military submarine is one of six
Israel has ordered from Germany, which subsidizes
the submarines. Each submarine costs half a
billion dollars. The sub was presented to Israeli
officials in Hamburg, Germany, on Thursday and is
expected to arrive in Israel in 2013, following
final tests, the Washington Post reported.
Israel has used the occasion to remind
Tehran of Israel's clear and present menace, given
the submarine's 1,500 kilometer range, making it
capable of hitting targets in and around the
capital city of Tehran. There is, though, no
official confirmation that Israel has armed the
subs it already has with nuclear weapons.
Similarly, Israel has never acknowledged that it
has a nuclear arsenal.
Inevitably, the
news from Germany has unsettled Tehran, which has
questioned Berlin's counter-proliferation claims,
clearly contradicted by the submarines' sale that
simply bolsters Israel's "second strike" nuclear
capability. Berlin cannot have it both ways,
profess nuclear pacifism and simultaneously fuel
regional proliferation in the Middle East.
Germany's own nuclear export guidelines
are shredded into pieces every time it dishes up
new nuclear hardware to Tel Aviv. This point has
bypassed some German pundits who advise Berlin on
Iran policy. [1]
Sections of the media
have blamed the Iran media, eg the state-owned
Press TV in particular, for drawing attention to
the Israeli nuclear threat. [2]
The
thought that the Iranians and or other Muslim or
Arab nations in Israel's vicinity may have
legitimate concerns about Israel's unobstructed
nuclear build-up simply is not part of the
pro-Israel discourse.
The real question,
however, is, again, about the timing. Israel is
desperately trying to dissuade Iran from making
any compromises that would end the Iran crisis,
given the wealth of hopeful signs for a productive
summit in Baghdad.
Thus the reason for
making new subtle nuclear threats against Iran is
the hope that Tehran will eschew any compromise
and seek instead a nuclear shield or deterrent
capability.
This way, Tel Aviv does not
have to worry that the morning after an Iran deal
at Baghdad or any subsequent forum, the world
community prioritizes Israel's unchecked
nuclearization.
Interestingly, although it
is the sole country in the Middle East with a
nuclear arsenal, Israel is unconcerned about the
risk of appearing incoherent by simultaneously
paying lip-service to the idea of a "nuclear
weapons-free zone in the Middle East", which was
endorsed by even Western capitals at a nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference over a
decade ago.
A new United Nations
conference on this subject is scheduled for late
2012 and Israel has agreed to participate, while
its media have criticized Iran for refusing to
take part due to Israel's presence.
In
fact, Iran has not yet adopted an official
position on the conference and there is a spirited
debate inside the country as to whether or not to
participate. By all indications, if by then the
"Iran Six" talks have progressed to the point of a
timely breakthrough, Iran's clout and authority to
influence world public opinion on the subject of a
Middle East nuclear weapons-free zone would have
been increased.
Israel on the other hand
would be hard pressed to justify its nuclear
obstructionism and refusal to make any tangible
moves toward fulfilling this lofty objective.
Israel's intended circuit-breaker, aimed at
maintaining its nuclear hegemony in the Middle
East while enjoying the multiple benefits of a
continuing Iran nuclear crisis, is linked to its
correct forecast of what new pressures will be
exerted on Israel in the event of a breakthrough
in the Iran nuclear talks.
That is,
success in those talks means net failure for
Israel, despite its official pretensions of being
genuinely rattled by an "existential Iran nuclear
threat", a wild claim questioned even by some
Israeli pundits who have pointed out that Israel
may also lose billions of dollars of foreign aid
currently streaming into its coffers partly as a
result of the Iran threat.
That is, the
real threat to Israel's vested interests seemingly
comes from the absence of such an Iran threat.
Notes 1. Iran
Campaign Targeting Israel as Global Nuclear
Threat, the Jewish Press, May 5. 2. See the
article
by the head of the Berlin think-tank, SWP, that
ignores any and all connections between Israel's
nuclear menace to Iran and Iran's nuclear issue.
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