Cap goods: Ain’t nuthin’ happening ‘cept oil
Oil price crash took away the only big area of capital spending in the US
Durable goods orders disappointed this morning, down 1.1% from May to June vs a consensus forecast of a 0.6% decline. The most important component of the mix, non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, fell 0.2% (consensus was for a 0.4% gain).
Capital goods orders have followed the oil price for the past several years as the oil drilling boom came and went and picked up again. When the oil price crashed in 2014, energy companies accounted for more than 30% of American CapEx. The crashing oil price took out the one big area of capital investment in the US economy. Capital goods orders are still bouncing along the bottom.