Central banks in limbo for rest of year amid transitions, elections
Japan will stay the course, ECB waits on German politics, Fed waits for Trump decision
Central banks in the US, Europe and Japan will in all likelihood not be making any major policy shifts for the rest year.
Abe’s resounding win in a snap election will see his ultra-easy monetary policy continue for the foreseeable future.
The European Central Bank is waiting on complex ruling coalition negotiations in Germany to work themselves out over the coming months before key German positions are filled. Though Merkel said she expects a government in place by Christmas, according to Reuters, some say January is more likely.
In the US, speculation continues as to who will take the reigns as Federal Reserve chair, with Janet Yellen’s first term set to end early next year. Frontrunners include Yellen to continue, governor of the Federal Reserve board Jerome Powell, and Stanford University economist John Taylor.
Yellen or Powell would likely see policy stay the course, and, while seen as more hawkish, Taylor is also a consensus guy who would not be able to dramatically shift policy anyway with only one vote on policy.