China could set lower growth target in 2019: economists
Experts say real estate and manufacturing investment may continue to slow down, while prevailing tax cuts are limited in boosting consumption
Stabilizing growth will remain an important economic task in the coming year, according to several economists interviewed by 21st Century Business Herald, however they differed on the actual growth target.
Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of Communications, predicts that next year’s economic growth may be in the range of 6.3%-6.5%.
Real estate investment may fall into the range of 5% to 8%, and manufacturing investment may also slow down. Meanwhile, current tax and fee cuts remain limited in boosting consumption and exports will still face uncertainty, Lian said.
Shen Jianguang, chief economist at JD Finance, said the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to set a lower GDP growth target for next year, allowing it to slow down to around 6%, to make room for structural reforms and as a response to external risks.
While Lou Feng, a researcher at the Institute of Quantitative & Technical Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks the growth target can be set in a range between 6% to 6.5%.