Chinese yuan’s slide due to monetary easing, not speculation
Gauge of speculation hasn’t budged despite 3% drop versus dollar; shift seen in central bank policy comes amid trade war pressures
The most sensitive gauge of speculation against the Chinese yuan, the overnight rate for offshore CNY in Hong Kong, hasn’t moved during the past several days.
The measure indicates that the yuan’s depreciation from a recent low of 6.33 to the US dollar on May 11 to 6.58 today is part of the pre-emptive monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China in response to trade war pressures. A depreciating yuan could, to some extent, offset a slowdown in exports due to a trade war.
The recent slide in the yuan marks a shift following efforts from Beijing to shore up the currency, which has gone from being one of the best performing emerging market currencies to being down significantly year to date.