Economists assure China will not risk global recovery with tightening
Ahead of the important 19th Party Congress there's a low risk that moves to reign in leverage will go too far
China’s leadership is unlikely to push a deleveraging campaign to the point that it could derail a nascent global recovery, say economists from Morgan Stanley, Mizuho Securities and Oxford Economics, reports Bloomberg.
“Some in global markets are concerned that China’s monetary tightening risks nipping in the bud the current, still fragile, global recovery,” Louis Kuijs, Oxford’s head of Asia economics in Hong Kong and a former World Bank and International Monetary Fund economist was quoted by Bloomberg as saying.
“In our view the risk of an excessive policy tightening in China leading to a sharp reduction in economic growth is low, for the simple reason that the senior leadership does not want that to happen,” Kuijs added.
Chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, Robin Xing, said last week in Beijing that he sees exports picking up and the global economy continuing to improve.
“The risk of over-tightening is small as policy makers are striking a balance between controlling financial risks and maintaining stable growth in the run up to the leadership reshuffle during the 19th Party Congress,” Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizhuo wrote in recent a note. “Newly found momentum in the export and consumer sectors should also keep growth resilient.”
Ming Ming, Citic Securities analysts and former PBOC official wrote in a report on Friday that, while there are still risks, “we believe the authorities will prevent a full-blown liquidity crunch in June, … as such, the rise in financing costs for the real economy should be mild.”