Expect a dovish statement from Fed
US real hourly earnings turned negative in February, which means there’s no inflation for the Fed to lean against
Asia Unhedged expects a dovish statement. Our rationale is dumb, but then again, the Fed is not staffed by geniuses. Janet Yellen is a labor economist. The labor market shows no signs of tightening. Year-on-year real hourly earnings turned negative in February. That means there’s no inflation for the Fed to lean against (even if leaning against inflation would do anybody any good, which it wouldn’t). So bonds are going to do well.