Fed minutes betray officials’ lack of confidence in own models
Despite an effort to assure “most” policy makers sticking to forecast, confidence wanes
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed a welcome rethinking of stubborn adherence to models that are failing to accurately reflect the drivers of inflation. But the lack of confidence among policy makers shown in the account is also cause for concern, according to some investors.
“These minutes to me were troubling,” Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies LLC in New York was quoted by Bloomberg as saying. “They don’t have their confidence in their policy decisions; and they don’t have confidence that they can provide the right kind of guidance.”
Despite the fact that Fed has failed to achieve its 2% inflation rate goal through most of the past five years, a majority of policy makers still favor further rate increases.