Momentum favors Turkish lira, despite politics
Lira pares gains against dollar but holds strong against other EM currencies
The Turkish lira rallied Monday after President Tayyip Erdogan backtracked from warnings over the weekend against moving assets abroad.
“We have nothing to say against anyone who transfers resources abroad for investment purposes, or who is seeking export opportunities, or engaged in trade activities,” Erdogan was quoted by Anadolu Agency as saying.
“What I am talking about is that our businessmen should show a patriotic stance at a time when there are attempts to put our country under economic pressure in addition to other attacks,” he added.
Bloomberg’s Kristine Aquino wrote Tuesday after the lira pared its gains against the dollar that the momentum still favors Turkey’s currency. Its rally against other emerging-market currencies is looking more intact, she noted:
TRY/ZAR, in particular, looks due for a turn in Turkey’s favor, based on momentum indicator MACD. That comes as TRY/ZAR attempts to recover from its lowest level since late March. Back then, the pair’s MACD also shifted to benefit TRY, resulting in a nearly 12% rally versus the rand in the next 1 1/2 weeks.