Business | The Daily Disappointment: Chicago Fed Index close to post-crash low

The Daily Disappointment: Chicago Fed Index close to post-crash low

April 20, 2015 11:24 AM (UTC+8)

 

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index printed today close to its post-recession low for March at -.42 (vs. a consensus forecast of +.10). That puts the 3-month moving average at -.27, lower than during Q1 of 2014 when real GDP contracted. That’s consistent with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model, which puts Q1 growth at zero.

chifed4-20

That’s an ugly number. Federal Reserve officials are trying to Moonwalk away from their forecast of brisk recovery and higher interest rates. Speaking at a Bloomberg conference today, New York Fed President William C. Dudley sounded as if he were scripted by The Onion: “It will be important to determine whether the softness in the March labor report, or if it foreshadows a more substantial timing of normalization in the labor market than I currently anticipated. The timing of normalization remains uncertain because how wthe economy evolves is also uncertain. Now that we have an Adolescent Poetry Generator, a Postmodern Essay Generator, a Thomas Friedman column generator and a thesis generator, perhaps the software industry can devise a Federal Reserve official speech generator and save our public servants the trouble of leaving their offices.

Comments