Turkey’s central bank out of options as core inflation reaches 13-year high
New data deals a blow to Erdogan’s goal of boosting growth with cheaper credit
The measure of Turkey’s consumer prices that excludes volatile food and energy data has hit a 13-year high, according to Bloomberg, casting doubt on the sustainability of Erdogan’s cheap credit boom.
The worse than expected core inflation rose an annual 11.8% in October, the highest number since January of 2004.
As Deutsche Welle writes, the bad news undermines Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s hopes to sustain economic growth with cheaper credit. A blow to Erdogan’s economic goals also threatens to erode his political legitimacy which by many accounts hinges on strong economic growth.
Turkish central bank chief Murat Cetinkaya said on Wednesday that the current monetary policy was tight enough to meet an official long-term target of 5%, according to Bloomberg. He added that policy would be kept steady into next year until the bank felt confident it could meet its end of year target of 7% consumer inflation.
Growth for this year is projected to miss the government’s official forecast of 5.5% to fall around 5.0%, according to the Deutsche Welle report, despite Erdogan’s claim that “no one should be surprised” if year-end growth reaches 7%.
The higher inflation will also increase the challenge posed by the balance of payments deficit which has reached 4.5% of the country’s GDP, a far higher ratio than most emerging economies.