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Threats of a wider war in Sabah
Fighters from the Moro National Liberation Front rebel group who for decades battled the Philippines forces are now training their sights on Malaysia after its government launched an air and ground assault on a rag-tag militia from the Sultanate of Sulu that landed on Sabah to assert a centuries-old territorial claim. With atrocities in the conflict mounting - and the MNLF known for its armed prowess - the situation is rapidly becoming a regional threat. - Noel Tarrazona
(Mar 7, '13)
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Kurdish peace process divides Turks
Since Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan ended a 67-day hunger strike by his minority people in Turkey last November, Ankara has been forced to recognize him and other Kurdistan Workers' Party leaders, and the two sides are now taking unprecedented moves towards peace. Ocalan has emerged as the best hope for an end to the violence, but many Turks still dismiss him as a murderer. - Caleb Lauer
(Mar 7, '13)
After Tamil Tigers, fishers face poachers
Fishing boat captains off the Jaffna coast in northern Sri Lanka once faced the peril of being mistaken for Tamil Tigers during the separatist conflict. That ended with the defeat of the Tigers in 2009. Now the boats have to deal with another danger from skirmishes with powerful Indian fishing trawlers illegally poaching in their thousands. - Amantha Perera
(Mar 7, '13) |
China's 'unrelenting strategy' targets US
Aggressive, self-confident maneuvers by China's military seemingly targeting the US suggest Beijing is following the ancient ''unrelenting strategy" written of in the I Ching, which calls for confusing an opponent before creating and deepening internal conflicts and launching an offensive assault. As the sun sets on US power, the method could offer a short-cut to usurping it as the sole superpower. - Jenny Lin
(Mar 7, '13)
What went right at Almaty
The whiff of a potential breakthrough in the decade-long standoff over Iran's nuclear program, will propel negotiators back to the table for another session after talks in Almaty reached (in Tehran's words) a "turning point". In effect, the P5+1 powers recognized Iran's basic enrichment rights and, perhaps most importantly, have allowed its leaders to save face.
- Richard Javad Heydarian
(Mar 7, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
Time for India's right to look within
India needs a strong right-wing to counter the dominance of the Congress party. As the right's representative at 2014 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party under likely prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi must get its act together and emerge from a cacophony of indistinct policies. A first step would be the BJP declaring a sincere belief that India is not just for Hindus. - Tridivesh Singh Maini and Arko Dasgupta
(Mar 7, '13)
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China and India should stop fretting
While Beijing may welcome US Secretary of State John Kerry's concerns that Washington's Asian rebalancing strategy "creates a threat" where there wasn't one, past accusations from new Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that India opened a "second front" in Afghanistan still stick in Delhi's craw. Instead of fretting over pitfalls in the Obama-era "course correction", India and China should instead focus on creating new traction in their bilateral engagement. - M K Bhadrakumar (Mar 6, '13)
SINOGRAPH
Devil in detail of
grand
urban plan
A grand plan announced by the National People’s Congress this week envisions spending of US$6.4 trillion over 10 years to bring 400 million people into China's smaller cities. As an economic initiative, the migration could lead to China becoming the largest contributor to global growth within a few decades. As a complex project of structural transformation, the devil is in the detail. - Francesco Sisci
(Mar 6, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
El Comandante has left the building
Unfortunately for turbo-capitalists in Washington and Brussels, the death of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez from cancer does not signal an end to the spirit of Chavism. With his "socialism of the 21st century" and defiance of centuries-old patterns of subjugation in Latin America, El Comandante struck a chord with the Global South that's now resonating in crumbling European structures.
- Pepe Escobar
(Mar 6, '13)
China homes in on Pacific air supremacy
The likely capability of China's new DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile to cripple US aircraft carrier strike groups threatens the platform that established and maintained post-World War II US supremacy in the Asia-Pacific, with momentous ramifications for regional power equations. If Washington fails to demonstrate adequate countermeasures to such asymmetric weapons, China's leaders will see the Asian "pivot" as a hollow threat. - Andrew S Erickson
(Mar 6, '13)
Fear of change in Vietnam
 The silent majority in Vietnam is waiting for a democratic leader to emerge, while looking with horror at how dissenters who speak out, such as Father Nguyen Van Ly, are penalized for "propagandizing" against the communist government. Fear is a powerful incentive for inaction, yet change will eventually come - demographics and prosperity make that almost inevitable. - Khanh Vu Duc
(Mar 6, '13)
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Baloch leaders face vote dilemma
Politicians in Pakistan's restive Balochistan province are divided over parliamentary elections scheduled for May, with some seeing a chance to influence national politics and others planning to boycott the poll in solidarity with the Baloch independence movement. Unless Islamabad withdraws security forces implicated in thousands of "enforced disappearances", proponents of participation are likely to lose.
- Abubakar Siddique
(Mar 6, '13)
Iran to set up oil refinery in Gwadar
Pakistan will this month give Iran the go-ahead to build the energy-deficient country's largest oil refinery at Gwadar. The prospect of a petroleum hub at the strategically important port will give impetus to Chinese investments there, though plans to push on with the Iran-Pakistan pipeline are sure to rile the US.
- Syed Fazl-e-Haider
(Mar 6, '13)
Pakistan plunges into election dilemma
Violence that erupted after the funerals of Shi'ites killed in bomb blasts in Karachi on Sunday is raising pressure on authorities to sanction army control in cities hit by attacks from Sunni militants. Yet the military pursuit of terrorists that is increasingly being demanded would itself imperil the upcoming elections. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider
(Mar 5, '13)
A war of many interests in Myanmar
The conflict intensifying between the Kachin Independent Army and Myanmar's government will prove a crucial test of the federalist vision in Naypyidaw's apparent steps towards democracy. Hundreds of ethnic groups represent almost half the population, and unless leaders can generate trust by controlling the army and granting new economic rights, war will spread.
- Aung Tun
(Mar 5, '13)
Tajikistan regions still deep in conflict
Tensions between rival regional groups in Tajikistan remain high as the country prepares for presidential elections, with clashes last year between the ruling Kulyabi elite and Pamirs in Gorno-Badakhshan underlining the lack of progress since civil war ended in 1997. Unless the Kulyabis launch an inclusive political process, the cycle of conflict won't be broken.
- Shavkat Kasymov
(Mar 5, '13) |
 Glacial progress
belies climate threat
The minimal global impact of the "largest ever" climate change rally in Washington last month underlined difficulties in getting the masses behind the cause, despite the chances of human-induced weather extremes ending life on Earth as we know it. Preparation for a grim, apocalyptic future may seem pessimistic, but it's a leap of faith humanity must take.
- Tom Engelhardt
(Mar 5, '13)
Terror strikes switch to Karachi
Karachi has become a new focus of terror in Pakistan after twin blasts left their deadly mark in a Shi'ite-dominated community on Sunday. As the southern port city emerges as another "sectarian flashpoint" following attacks by Sunni militants in Quetta, the surge in violence is opening fears that the campaign for the upcoming general election could be marred by more blood. - Syed Fazl-e-Haider
(Mar 4, '13)
 SPENGLER
Looking for marriage
in all the wrong places
Defenders of gay marriage style themselves as enlightened and reasonable. The well-reasoned arguments in a new book propounding a traditional concept of marriage on the basis of nature and social benefit prove them to be nothing of the sort, while in any case hedonistic heterosexuals have been hacking away at the institution for years. (Mar 4, '13)
What is Marriage? Man and Woman: A Defense, by Sherif Girgis, Ryan T Anderson, and Robert P George. |
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Mongolia takes long view of resources
The Mongolian government appears to recognize the importance of extensive consultations, not least with its own public and local business interests, before pressing through proposed revisions to its mining regulations. It's willingness to look overseas to the likes of Australia means Mongolia may yet avoid both resources nationalism and the resource curse.
- Jargalsaikhany Mendee
CREDIT BUBBLE BULLETIN
Italy and "Ro, Ro"
The world's markets have enjoyed six months of powerful ''risk on'' gains, with a flood of ''money'' into equities and global risk markets. Yet currency market volatility especially points to an inflection point, Italian elections adding notably to the trepidation.
Doug Noland looks at the previous week's events each Monday.
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Let Male keep its
tryst with destiny
The arrest of the former president of Maldives, Mohamed Nasheed is an event that could easily have been foretold. Like in the Gabriel Garcia Marquez novella, where everyone except Santiago Nasar could foretell what the two Vicario brothers were up to, only Nasheed seemed unaware that the president and a former president would go to any extent to disqualify him from the forthcoming September election.
- M K Bhadrakumar
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[Re El Comandante has left the building, Mar 6, '13] Rest assured that the likes of Iran, North Korea, China and Russia will carry on the task of unraveling the [US] Empire until it wages war no more. Some day future historians will place an asterisk by Hugo Chavez's name, accrediting his small role in bringing that glorious day to pass.
H Campbell
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