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SYRIA'S CIVIL WAR
Moscow seeks full-spectrum US engagement
An element of the tectonic shift in Syria sees Free Syrian Army "moderates" engage Damascus in jaw, not war, as President Bashar al-Assad emerges as the only figure capable of rolling back the al-Qaeda. The growing strength of groups linked to al-Qaeda puts the US and Russia (and also Iran) on the same page, and presents an opportunity for the Kremlin to build on "common achievements" and focus White House eyes on fronts beyond Syria's civil war. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Oct 4, '13)
Sanctions-lusting US gets free ride - so far
Washington feels free to sanction Russian entities for conduct legal in Russian and international law. Put the boot on the other foot, and international action against Google, Microsoft, Apple et al for illegal data interception could cost them as much a US$35 billion. - John Helmer
(Oct 3, '13)
Turkey goes for Chinese take-away defense
Turkey, a key NATO member, has gone for a US$3 billion Chinese take-away to ensure it has its own independent missile defense system. In ordering a version of the Hong Qi missile, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be telling Washington it no longer sees Turkey as Europe's front line state in the Middle East, and aims to manage his relationships with Iran and Syria on a more bilateral basis. - Peter Lee
(Sep 27, '13)
Tajik Islamists back secular ticket
In backing Oinihol Bobonazarova, a prominent female pro-democracy activist, as the opposition coalition's candidate for the November presidential election in Tajikistan, the Islamic Renaissance Party faces the uncomfortable task of calling on their followers to back a secularist outsider. But Islamist leaders are looking to benefits beyond the unwinnable race. - Farangis Najibullah
(Sep 27, '13)
Almaty blaze leaves traders facing ruin
A blaze that devastated the most extensive market complex in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, has left traders struggling to recover, due to an absence of insurance and a government that insists landlords must shoulder responsibility. - Stanislav Kraskov
(Sep 26, '13)
Azeri presidential race a non-starter
The absence of visible campaigning for next month's Azerbaijan presidential election on streets and airwaves underlines how the incumbent Ilham Aliyev dominates despite rising discontent over inequality, justice, education and healthcare. While government officials have reportedly used financial resources to tilt the playing field in Aliyev's favor, the opposition bears responsibility for poor preparation. - Shahin Abbasov
(Sep 26, '13)
RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY
Moscow issues Eurasia ultimatum
Russian President Vladimir Putin is drawing new battle lines to protect his Eurasian Union project, which aims at integrating the former Soviet republics under Moscow's leadership. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's "all or nothing" threat to Ukraine to cease flirtations with Europe and revert its eyes eastward is telling: Russia is concerned that the "defection" of its biggest neighbor will undermine ambitions to build more strategic depth. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Sep 24, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
Putin wins the war on terror
Russian President Vladimir Putin's policy of combating jihadists wherever possible and his will to put Russia's full diplomatic and military weight behind his fight against terror are in stark contrast to the Obama administration's focus on dialogue and humanitarian actions. Russia's international prestige is growing as it outplays the US in a fight it started but seems unable to finish. - Riccardo Dugulin
(Sep 24, '13)
Xi Jinping brings out Central Asia critics
President Xi Jinping's visit to Central Asia this month underlined the region's growing importance to China. As his officials handed out loans and signed financial deals, critics ramped up their claims of dangerous Chinese expansion. - Fozil Mashrab
(Sep 24, '13)
Soviet lessons for China in Xinjiang
While China's presence in the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region resembles Russia's colonization of Central Asia countries in the Soviet era, the fact that segregation and revolts were less common in the latter suggests nationalities like the Kazakhs and the Kyrgyz found it easier to relate to their northern neighbors. Nonetheless, Beijing's combination of huge monetary investment and a carrot-and-stick policy for its restive Uyghur people is having results. - Igor Rotar
(Sep 23, '13)
New veg leaves bitter taste
The season of mellow fruitfulness is leaving a bitter taste in the mouths of Serbs and Croatians, as they eat the consequences of regulations that have brought in imported seeds for tomatoes, onions and other veg from the likes of Monsanto and reduced availability of local, more tasty products. - Vesna Peric Zimonjic
(Sep 19, '13)
Maersk makes waves in Russian market
Global Ports Investments, 25% owned by Denmark's Maersk, is set to secure a monopoly position in Russia's container transportation business with its takeover of National Container Co - if the deal passes takeover hurdles and the keen eye of President Vladimir Putin. - John Helmer
(Sep 19, '13)
Tashkent permits child labor check
The government of Uzbekistan, after years of outside pressure to curb child labor in cotton fields, is to allow the International Labor Organization to monitor this year's harvest. Concern remains that fear of authorities will still prevent workers from speaking out. - Joanna Lillis
(Sep 18, '13)
SCO glimpses a new Eurasia in Bishkek
Defiant sounds from a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last week in Kyrgyzstan over Syria's crisis and Iran's nuclear program underlined how the organization has evolved from an anti-terrorist coalition into a powerful counterpoint to Western international influence. If it can now forge energy links between South and Central Asia, the SCO can seriously threaten plans for a new American century. - Brendan P O'Reilly
(Sep 16, '13)
Russia's 'outsourced' jihadis come home
The prospect of battle-hardened fighters coming home from Syria to join the intensifying insurgency in the Northern Caucasus is spurring Russian authorities to change tack. Where once the Kremlin turned a blind eye to the southern exodus, calls by "Caucasus Emirates" leader Dokku Umarov for jihadis to return cannot be ignored. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Sep 13, '13)
Sechin called on to sort potash mesh
Russian potash giant Uralkili's decision backed by stakeholder Suleiman Kerimov to kill off its Belarus-linked cartel has hit global potash prices and led the Uralkili CEO to be arrested in Minsk. Step up former deputy prime minister and Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin to fix the mess - though he will need China's help to do so. - John Helmer
(Sep 13, '13)
Azerbaijan, Russia test new pragmatism
Two oil deals between Azerbaijan and Russia signal continued improvement in their relations and exemplify their pragmatic pursuit of bilateral, particularly energy, ties while testy issues are set aside. Notable losers from this "compartmentalized" approach are found in Russia's Caucasus territories, particularly in troubled Chechnya and Daghestan.
(Sep 5, '13)
Armenia to join Customs Union
Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian says his country will join the Russia-led Customs Union. That has upset his political opponents and could kill Armenia's prospects of closer ties with the European Union.
(Sep 4, '13)
Tajikistan offers good
pickings for money launderer
An Iranian entrepreneur who is the subject of United States and European Union sanctions for laundering oil money on behalf of Tehran is operating successful businesses in Tajikistan. His customers include the local US embassy, impressed by his taxi service.
(Aug 26, '13)
Gazprom's $1 buys bag of Kyrgyz woes
The geopolitical gains to Russia of Gazprom's purchase of Kyrgyzstan's state-owned gas supplier, Kyrgyzgaz, for all of US$1 may be hard-pressed to balance the problems that come with the deal, even putting to one side the burden of debt and collapsing distribution infrastructure. - Fozil Mashrab
(Aug 23, '13)
Afghan pullout risks Central Asia security
Intensified fighting in north Afghanistan involving Islamist militants from Central Asia is raising concerns that they plan to exploit the Western coalition's 2014 withdrawal to target their home countries. What is a country to do to prevent the insurgent influx. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan could take Uzbekistan's example of constructing electrified barbed-wire fences. - Saule Mukhametrakhimova
(Aug 22, '13)
China chases Central Asian pipe dream
China's nurturing of energy links with Central Asian countries, particularly Kazakhstan, has seen soft power opportunities grow and long-held mistrust of expanding Chinese influence recede. While Kazakh critics argue that economic ties with Russia are more natural, traditionally the area has benefited more from trade with China than with their northern neighbor. - Alexander Kim
(Aug 21, '13)
Azerbaijan clamps down
on Karabakh visitors
Journalists, charity workers and artists including Spanish opera singer Montserrat Caballe are finding themselves barred from entering Azerbaijan because they visited the disputed Armenian-controlled breakaway Azerbaijani region of Nagorny Karabakh. Critics say the blacklist, though seemingly aimed at pleasing domestic voters, is more likely to make Baku appear overzealous. - Magerram Zeynalov
(Aug 16, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Bandar Bush, 'liberator' of Syria
For a year, there was some doubt if he was even alive, but Saudi Arabia's Prince Bandar bin Sultan, aka Bandar Bush, is very much alive and kicking, at least enough to knock heads with President Vladimir Putin over what Russia should do with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (drop him). That's not going to happen, which leaves The Comeback Kid (and Barack Obama) with a dilemma. - Pepe Escobar
(Aug 13, '13)
Kremlin's potash war picks its prisoners
Russian potash monopoly Uralkili's decision to quit its Belarus joint venture has sent producers' shares tumbling in Russia and elsewhere at the prospect of a halving of present output prices. China Investment Corp, along with Andrei Melnichenko's upstart Eurochem, should be among the big losers, but that would be too simple. - John Helmer
(Aug 8, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Snowden: our man in Moscow
Wolf in sheep's clothing Barack Obama can huff and puff all he likes at Russia's granting of asylum to Edward Snowden, but short of an Abbottabad-style raid, the safehouse isn't going to blow down while the whistleblower enjoys the fruits of Vladimir Putin's international obligations. Settling into life outside Moscow airport, Snowden has exploded the myth of Full Spectrum Dominance by the president of the United States. - Pepe Escobar
(Aug 2, '13)
A spy who tried to scale Kremlin wall
Russia's recent policy successes in Syria doubtless flavored the discussions of chief of Saudi intelligence Prince Bandar bin Sultan in Moscow this week. The Kremlin knows only too well Bandar's skills in the dark arts - think Afghan jihad in the '80s - and this was one spy it was prepared to portray (with unusually public coverage) as very much out in the cold. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Aug 2, '13)
Eurochem plans own Louisiana purchase
Eurochem, Russia's largest potash miner, aims to be among the world's top five once its new mine in the Volgograd region gets underway. Owned by chairman Andrei Melnichenko, it also has eyes on expansion in the United States, where it has the ear of Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. What President Vladimir Putin thinks of that move is another matter. - John Helmer
(Jul 30, '13)
China's help raises Kyrgyz concerns
China's willingness to boost Kyrgyzstan's economy and develop its infrastructure is a counterpoint, welcomed by some, to Western reluctance to invest there. How Bishkek repays the "no-strings" deals it signs up to with Beijing is also raising concern.
- Chris Rickleton
(Jul 29, '13)
Russia and Iran: A postmodern dance
Vladimir Putin, the only Russian leader to visit Tehran since the 1917 revolution, is about to go again on a mission to repair damage done by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev's dalliance with the United States. The rich tapestry of Russo-Iranian ties is dotted with blood and betrayal, yet with direct US-Iran talks on the cards, strategic understanding is vital as the two regional powers grope their way toward a distinctly postmodern relationship. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jul 26, '13)
The real snap in Putin's military inspection
Russian President Vladimir Putin's "snap inspection" this month of combat forces in the country's Far East may have been planned ostensibly to surprise the military. But the scale of the exercise was calculated to show Russia's Asia-Pacific neighbors that Moscow has the political will to defend far-flung territory and to mask underlying military weakness. - Roger McDermott
(Jul 24, '13)
Georgians protest over foreclosures
Georgians are battling a wave of bank foreclosures on private homes, with claims that bankers are imposing high interest rates and arbitrary changing mortgage terms. Former president Mikhail Saakashvili denies helping to create a system where banks were able to lend too much money at excessive interest rates- Nino Gerzmava
(Jul 24, '13)
Snowden: Moment of truth for Russia, US
Propelled by the Edward Snowden case, a poignant moment of truth is arriving for Russia and the United States in their post-Cold War relationship. For Moscow, it is nothing less than an identity crisis where ideology is making a comeback, whereas for Washington it's back to the drawing board as the charade of the "reset" conjured up during Barack Obama's first presidential term has outlived its utility. - M K Bhadrakumar
(Jul 19, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
Russia navigates uncertain Kyrgyz waters
As mine closures and anti-government demonstrations in Kyrgyzstan highlight rising political instability, Russia is sticking with President Almazbek Atambayev over the increasingly powerful provincial elites. As its southern neighbor fragments, factors such as the growing Chinese business presence in the country or fears of creeping "Afghanization" could easily prompt Moscow to switch sides. - Ryskeldi Satke
(Jul 17, '13)
BOOK REVIEW
How Jews navigated Bolshevik currents
Russian Jews Between the Reds and the Whites, 1917-1920 by Oleg Budnitskii
Western historians approaching the subject of Russian Jews during the Civil War are too often influenced by ideology - conservatives paint the Bolsheviks as anti-Semitic fascists, while leftists sketch out a pro-Jewish, progressive regime. This book succeeds in portraying a more accurate central path. Neither the Reds nor Whites favored ethnic-religious pogroms - but only because it was a politically expedient stance. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Jul 12, '13)
Armenians protest at sale
of gas stake to Gazprom
Armenian opposition politicians are furious that the government may hand over its remaining 20% stake in the country's natural gas monopoly to give Russia's Gazprom total ownership, in order to secure concessions on the high gas price now charged by the joint venture. - Marianna Ghahramanyan
(Jul 11, '13)
Uzbek government shows dark side
Uzbek leader Islam Karimov has been taking steps to try to put a more human face on his regime. Its true nature is better seen in the fate of former army intelligence chief Sanjar Ismailov, jailed eight years ago after sharing information with a Russian official. The United Nations Human Rights Council has condemned his treatment, to no avail. - Marina Kozlova
(Jul 10, '13)
Kashagan deal good for more than China
CNPC's entry to the Kashagan oil project, in China's second victory over India in a contest for access to Kazakhstan's oil supplies, brings considerable advantages to Kazakhstan, not least easing its dependence on Russia to reach international markets. - Vladimir Socor
(Jul 10, '13)
Last curtain falls on Nabucco pipeline
Nabucco-West, hyphen in the European Union-backed pipeline project that was to have carried Azerbaijani gas from Turkey to Austria, is now dead, with the rival Trans-Adriatic Pipeline project winning the contest for priority access to Azerbaijani gas. Its demise affects the politics of energy supply along the entire southern gas corridor to Europe. - Vladimir Socor
(Jul 1, '13)
CULTURE
A projection of Moscow's mindset
Portrayals of Asians and Westerners in Russia's eclectic output of epic movies offer a cinematic window on changing attitudes.
In the late 2000s, films like Mongol depicted Asians with vitality and talent, while Western culture was classed as corrosive. Increasing hostility between ethnic Russians and Muslims, heightened by Middle East conflicts, has produced films that increasingly identify with Europe. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(Jun 28, '13)
Putin on back foot at St Petersburg
The St Petersburg economic forum provided a perfect venue for President Vladimir Putin to highlight the dynamism of Russia's economy. He was hampered by the present slowdown and his inability to recognize the three key failings of present polices - rigid central control, shameless corruption, and lack of the rule of law. - Pavel K Baev
(Jun 25, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Our man in Quito
The Edward Snowden saga moves fast forward, still fraught with danger, but nearing game, set and match for the runaway revealer of the global scope of US secret surveillance. The Ecuadorian capital, Quito, looms on the horizon as his (final?) port of refuge as Snowden leaves behind him a now passport-less trail of geo-political chaos, with Hong Kong, Beijing (and now Moscow?) gleefully thumbing their noses at Washington. - Pepe Escobar
(Jun 24, '13)
Tajikistan deviates from CASA script
The World Bank insists existing hydropower will suffice to implement the CASA project to export electricity from Central to South Asia via Afghanistan. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, the other driving force behind CASA, begs to differ. At issue is his country's proposed, and highly contentious, Rogun Dam. - Fozil Mashrab
(Jun 24, '13)
Nazarbayev, Karimov seek water solution
Central Asia's water disputes regularly feature in summits between heads of states, as governments in the region see long-standing supply problems as one of their biggest security threats. Yet Kazakhstan's Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan aimed to show this month that cooperation rather than conflict is the best path to a solution as they put water management at the heart of a new strategic agreement. - Margarita Assenova
(Jun 20, '13)
Nazarbaev retreats on pension reforms
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev insists that his country's pension system needs reform, but has withdrawn a new pensions bill and sacked the minister responsible for it, under pressure from women's groups angered at seeing women's retirement age being raised to that of men. - Saule Mukhametrakhimova
(Jun 18, '13)
Scandal undermines Karimov succession
An alleged US$320 million bribe being investigated in Sweden is undermining Gulnara Karimova's hopes of succeeding her father, Islam Karimov, as president of Uzbekistan. The 40-year-old has already trimmed back her overseas interests, and her father's reported poor health may help strengthen non-family contenders. - Alexander Kim
(Jun 17, '13)
Tajikistan piles on China debt
Tajikistan's President Emomalii Rahmon's recently returned from China with investment and loan agreements worth around US$200 million. The bad news is that absent funding to its liking from Russia or the West, the Central Asian country's debt to Beijing is mounting, with possible unwanted consequences. - Anvar Sattori
(Jun 12, '13)
Through the Baku Looking Glass
Visiting Baku can be a surreal experience, in part due to the financial smog pervading the Azerbaijan capital and in part because supposedly serious discussions about how to exploit and pipe to the West the Caspian's energy resources can overlook a key point - the necessity of Iran's participation. - Chris Cook
(Jun 11, '13)
Guriyev fears new move
against jailed Khodorkovsky
Russian economist Sergei Guriyev, who recently fled to Paris on fear of facing jail at home, claims his present predicament lends credence to rumors that imprisoned oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky may face fresh charges to keep him behind bars. He is due to be released from jail next year. - Danila Galperovich and Claire Bigg
(Jun 6, '13)
Risks in Ashgabat's religious suppression
Turkmenistan's authorities, desperate to prevent extremists from corrupting the country's moderate Islam, have been seizing religious objects at airports and detaining Muslims returning from Saudi Arabia. The punitive approach risks building resentment, and possibly creating a more fertile ground for radicalism. - Charles Recknagel and Muhammad Tahir
(Jun 4, '13)
THE ROVING EYE
Pipelineistan and the New Silk Road(s)
Faced with a Eurasian integration frenzy stirred by China's relentless westward-ho strategic and trade expansion, the US response is essentially a military bid to control all routes for Chinese energy imports. Yet Washington cannot escape the great escape from Atlanticist-dominated trade, commerce and finance. The New Silk Road(s) will be built by emerging Asia - not by a fearful, declining West. - Pepe Escobar
(May 31, '13)
Ukraine seeks trade
deals to east and west
Ukraine has been moving closer to both an association and free-trade deal with the European Union, as well as observer status in the Russian-led Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Neither of the two statuses promises full integration; because of this, Kiev believes they are not mutually exclusive. - Oleg Varfolomeyev
(May 30, '13)
Putin's policies hurting Gazprom
Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom turns 20 this year with little to celebrate as profits and valuation tumble and its pricing and pipeline policies are increasingly called into question. The support of President Vladimir Putin, which should be a strength, is at the heart of its woes. - Tom Balmforth
(May 28, '13)
Kyrgyz government upbeat
before grilling on economy
The Kyrgyz government faces a rough ride when it reports to parliament on Thursday on its economic performance over the past year, but First Deputy Prime Minister Joomart Otorbaev is accentuating the positive, including strong growth, slow inflation and less red tape. - Gulnura Toralieva
(May 23, '13)
SPEAKING FREELY
Russia leads the way
in post-Fukushima world
A Western backlash against nuclear power following the Fukushima plant disaster has seen atomic energy's contribution rolled back in numerous countries. Energy needs in developing nations demand that acknowledge that, thanks to Russian specialists, the impact of human error in the nuclear sector has considerably decreased. - Igor Alexeev
(May 21, '13)
Azerbaijan's Israel diplomacy tests Iran
Azerbaijan has broken an unofficial taboo on its officials visiting Israel, arch-foe of its southern neighbor Iran. The reasons for Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov's "revolutionary" trip are unclear, though some speculate an Iranian call for the annexation of Azerbaijan has raised Baku's ire enough to test the fragile relationship. - Shahin Abbasov
(May 3, '13)
Caucasus jihadis feel Boston shocks
The Chechen nationality of the Boston Marathon bombing suspects will likely intensify US plans to deny support to jihadis fighters in Syria, since militants from the North Caucasus have been filling the rebel's ranks for months.
Recent claims from the resistance inside Russia undermine a "one size fits all" Washington approach to global jihad. - Dmitry Shlapentokh
(May 3, '13)
Moscow reserved on rare Japanese visitor
Russia handled Shinzo Abe's visit to Moscow, the first by a Japanese prime minister for a decade, with a delicate mix of hope and reserve amid disquiet over his recent foreign policy choices and the continuing Kurile Islands impasse. The reticence brought one big surprise: the absence of widely expected energy deals. - M K Bhadrakumar
(May 1, '13)
Nabucco-West backers
take pot shot at rival bid
Participant countries supporting the Nabucco-West project for piping Caspian gas into Europe have urged the European Commission to check again its own strategic goals in relation to those supplies. The real target is a rival project running into Italy. - Vladimir Socor
(May 1, '13)
Russia multiplies gas routes to Europe
Russia is developing plans to vastly expand the capacities of its gas export pipelines and build new ones, all in Europe beyond Russia's territory. The need for this expansion is questionable, though geopolitical bluff and profiteering by the Russian steel industry may be factors. - Vladimir Socor
(Apr 25, '13)
Skis replace bullets in Iraqi Kurdistan
A Basque ski instructor's vision of turning an isolated mountain village in Iraqi Kurdistan into a ski resort is becoming a reality as visitors flock there and locals who have lived off cattle rearing discover that the sport can generate profits. While there are plans to expand to other valleys, the geopolitical heat surrounding some slopes with potential mean they're unlikely to be developed. - Karlos Zurutuza
(Apr 18, '13)
Russia, Tajikistan in lopsided alliance
The lopsided nature of the Tajikistan's relationship with Russia suggests that Dushanbe's accession to the World Trade Organization in January will be quickly undermined by a need to pander to Moscow's interests. - Shavkat Kasymov
(Apr 18, '13)
Kyrgyz officials take cultural wrong turn
Efforts by Kyrgyzstan's Ministry of Culture to ban the Vagina Monologues because it "promotes scenes that destroy moral and ethical standards" hint at backsliding gender equality, particularly as officials admit to not even reading the play. With sexual and domestic abuse still taboo and "bride kidnapping" increasingly frequent, authorities are turning their backs on Kyrgyz women. - David Trilling
(Apr 15, '13)
Azerbaijan and Iran in soft-power struggle
The fact that most Azerbaijanis are Shi'ite Muslims and speak the same language as much of the Iranian population should have strengthened Azerbaijan's position as a an inspiration for the democratization of Iran. Instead, Azerbaijan itself is becoming increasingly vulnerable to hardline influences originating in the Islamic Republic. - Eldar Mamedov
(Apr 12, '13)
Gazprom outflanks Nabucco
The South Stream gas pipeline project by which Russia's Gazprom intends to supply the European Union has found allies in Eastern Europe willing protect their national interests in the face of pressure from Washington and Brussels. The EU's favored Nabucco project is losing the race. - Igor Alexeev
(Apr 10, '13)
Gazprom plans Ukraine bypass
Gazprom proposes a series of gas projects that involve an expansion of existing big gas pipeline projects or a reactivation of earlier, unrealized proposals. Their implementation will hinge to a large extent on whether Ukraine buckles under this new big squeeze by the Kremlin. - Vladimir Socor
(Apr 8, '13)
The right fare in Azerbaijan
The father and son link between Azerbaijan's transport minister and Baghlan, the monopolistic firm that has won a string of road construction, bus and taxi contracts - including one to import of 1,000 London taxis to Baku - suggests a conflict of interest. However, Baghlan insists it has the country's infrastructure interests at heart. - Nushabe Fatullayeva
(Apr 5, '13) |
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