Xi Jinping brings out Central Asia critics
By Fozil Mashrab
Chinese President Xi Jinping's first tour of Central Asian countries this month has been widely acknowledged as further strengthening Chinese influence in the region. It was the fourth trip abroad by the Chinese leader after he assumed power earlier this year, having previously visited Russia, the Americas and Africa.
The Central Asia region is of increasing strategic and economic importance to China, even though it accounts for a small fraction of Chinese global trade. China's total trade with the five countries of the region is only half of its trade with Malaysia, for example, which is around US$100 billion.
China is the biggest trading partner of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The fact that China, not Russia, is the biggest trading partner for Kazakhstan is particularly interesting
as the latter is the member of the Russian-led Customs Union.
Russia still remains the largest trading partner for Uzbekistan but this might change in the near future as both Uzbekistan and China are seeing their bilateral trade grow rapidly. According to Zhang Xiao, the Chinese Ambassador in Tashkent, Chinese-Uzbek trade in the first seven months of 2013 was up 60% on the year earlier figures at more than $2.5 billion.
Moreover, the lion's share of the Central Asian fossil fuel exports are now heading towards China with the commissioning of several oil and gas pipelines. Already, Turkmenistan is the largest supplier of natural gas to China accounting for more than 50% of the total imports. Central Asia is expected to play an increasingly important role for China in its attempts to secure reliable supplies of fossil fuels to meet its growing domestic demand.
In a similar fashion, Central Asia's trade profile will be raised thanks to China's intention to diversify trade routes to Europe and Middle East by land, using railways as opposed to sea routes. President Xi during his tour of the region called on the region's leaders to work together to resuscitate the ancient "Great Silk Road" that connected China and other far-eastern countries to Europe and the Middle East by camel caravans.
Chinese goods are already being shipped in big consignments to European markets by rail through Central Asia, especially through Kazakhstan, and these shipments are poised to increase significantly with the construction of an alternative shorter railway line through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan that will connect China to the Persian Gulf countries.
According to Western companies that have manufacturing bases in China, sending their goods to EU and other markets by rail though Central Asia is a little bit costlier but far less time consuming compared with sea routes.
China is increasingly being perceived by Central Asian leaders as a convenient and reliable economic partner. Beijing's policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of the regional countries is also greatly appreciated by the ruling elites.
According to Uzbek President Islam Karimov, President of Uzbekistan, China has shown to the world how to build cooperation and fruitful relations around world based on equality and mutual benefit. Importantly, he said that in the 22 years of bilateral relations between Uzbekistan and China, the latter has never set any political demands and he expressed hope that it would remain so in the future.
But the growing Chines influence in the region has attracted critics, especially in regards to the increasing trade cooperation and other links which are perceived by some as harmful to their interests. However, those powers who regard Chinese gains in the region as their potential losses seem unable to do anything against it.
For one thing, no other regional power has matched China in offering investments and other economic preferences such as soft loans and other infrastructure credits. China has already lent tens of billions of dollars to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan for the development of their oil and gas reserves, which are eventually being exported to China.
During Xi Jinping's tour, the Chinese government pledged and committed at least US$48 billion to Central Asian countries. Total value of Chinese-Kazakh agreements signed during Xi visit exceeded $30 billion; in Uzbekistan Xi oversaw signing of more than 30 deals with total value of $15 billion. Kyrgyzstan also received $ 3 billion in soft loans and infrastructure credits.
China is not only exploiting the natural resources of the region by signing oil, gas and other mining deals but also building roads, bridges, pipelines, electricity transmission lines, factories and other critical infrastructure needed by the regional countries for their development.
While Western countries don't seem to want to offer anything beyond lecturing on democracy and human rights, another regional power Russia sees its own economy lagging behind technologically and is increasingly in need of foreign direct investment itself.
As Russia's economy moves towards recession as feared by the Russian government, which predicts the country's gross domestic product to grow only a little above 1% in the next few years, the future prospects of many Russian investment projects in the Central Asia, especially in the hydro-electric power sector of Kyrgyzstan, will remain uncertain.
In such circumstances, unable to match China's increasing economic might in Central Asia, some powers seem to have resorted to spreading all kinds of heresies as part of their efforts to slow down or somehow prevent China from further increasing its influence in the region. These heresies are built on exaggerated fears that growing Chinese influence will inevitably lead to Chinese expansion and occupation of the region.
Another controversial issue that many Western observers in particular like to exploit is the export of the Chinese labor force to carry out various infrastructure projects across the region. They claim this is leading to a heightening of tensions between the Chinese and local populations, who are driven abroad due to a lack of job opportunities at home.
However, overall, the number of Chinese laborers in Central Asian countries is still very insignificant, while the various infrastructure projects implemented with their help are solving big challenges facing these countries and populations.
It has already become a well-established trend that these heresies are mostly spread by the Russian language media, and some appear to be deliberately staged to coincide with the visit of Central Asian leaders to China or Chinese leaders to Central Asia.
In April this year, when Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon was making his state visit to China, some Russian language media deliberately spread the information, which was later proved to be a misinformation, that Chinese soldiers had entered the Tajik territory in the mountainous Badakhshan region and were settling there. A spokesman for the Tajik Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to officially deny these rumors to calm local reaction, notably on social media.
Just ahead of Xi's visit to Uzbekistan, some Russian language sources spread the news that the Chinese government was freezing many joint investment projects with Uzbekistan due to the expected slowdown in Chinese economy.
These rumors were immediately dismissed as "absurd and nonsense" by the Chinese ambassador in Tashkent, who thought it necessary to intervene to stem the circulation of these rumors before Xi's arrival. Later on they were proved to be completely wrong when China pledged another $15 billion in investments and soft loans to Tashkent.
These heresies are usually easily identifiable as they are overblown and seem more like a joke than truth from well-informed observers, including government officials, and are not in any way going to affect the positive trends and increasing close cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, which is really mutually beneficial.
As Ambassador Zhang Xiao said, the increasing close cooperation between China and Central Asian countries is liked by some and not liked by others. It should therefore not be surprising to hear false statements from those with hostile views.
Fozil Mashrab is a pseudonym used by an independent analyst based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
(Copyright 2013 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales, syndication and republishing.)
Head
Office: Unit B, 16/F, Li Dong Building, No. 9 Li Yuen Street East,
Central, Hong Kong Thailand Bureau:
11/13 Petchkasem Road, Hua Hin, Prachuab Kirikhan, Thailand 77110
