Gunboats doing the talking in the Caspian
By Sergei Blagov

MOSCOW - As Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to the Kazakh port city of Aktau at the weekend to meet the presidents of four Central Asian countries, the absence of Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov was a sign of continuing tensions in the region.

At the summit, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev reportedly advocated stronger ties between Central Asia and Russia in energy sector, referring to a multi-lateral deal inked in Kazakhstan last March.

During the previous informal summit at Chimbulak resort near former Kazakh capital Almaty, on March 1 leaders of Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan approved a joint statement on "cooperation in energy policy and measures to defend interests of natural gas producers".

Yet they fell short of forming a new economic body, the proposed "Eurasian Alliance of Natural Gas Producers," to include Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan around the nexus of Russia's system of gas pipelines. The idea was revealed last January by Putin and the plan was dubbed as "Central Asian OPEC" by some Russian media outlets, yet it still remains a matter of discussion.

By 2007, Kazakhstan plans to turn Aktau into a "special economic zone" so as to serve the so-called "North-South transport corridor". On July 6, Nazarbayev suggested that Kazakhstan should join this project.

An alternative transport link from Asia to Europe - from Mumbai, India, to the Caspian port of Olya in Russia's Astrakhan region via Bandar Abbas in Iran - is expected to bring billions of dollars in revenues. Russia's transportation ministry estimates the annual trade turnover through the corridor could reach $10 billion per year, with Russia, Iran and India becoming the main beneficiaries. Not surprisingly, Kazakhstan is reluctant to be circumvented.

Yet apart from economic matters, the Kazakh port of Aktau witnessed an important security announcement. On July 6, Nazarbayev stated that the Kazakh navy would take part in the Russian naval exercises in the Caspian Sea next August.

Incidentally, the President of Turkmenistan Saparmurat Niyazov, also known as Turkmenbashi or "Father of all Turkmens", failed to show up at the summit despite being repeatedly invited. According to news reports, Nazarbayev conceded that all five leaders, including Putin, called Niyazov and sought his presence in Aktau, yet they failed to convince their Turkmen counterpart.

Also on July 6, Turkmen authorities announced the ouster of a general and three colonels of the KNB, the country's main security agency. Presumably fearing domestic plots, Turkmenbashi continues the KNB shake-up as former KNB head Muhammad Nazarov was sentenced to 20 years in jail last June. It has been understood that Niyazov was wary of possible ties between the KNB and Russia's FSB, both successor agencies of the Soviet-era KGB. Putin, a career KGB officer, once served as FSB head.

On the other hand, Turkmenbashi was far from pleased by Moscow's policy of clinching separate deals over the Caspian Sea's division, as well as Russia's planned naval exercises there. Last April, President Niyazov was hosting the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Kazakhstan in the Turkmen capital, but they failed even to sign a joint declaration, let alone solving dispute over the Caspian.

Subsequently, Putin reportedly complained that he had faced some "weak negotiators", with Niyazov reportedly trying to draw the median line as he liked; a final declaration was not signed. In the immediate aftermath of the flawed Caspian summit, Putin ordered major naval exercises in the disputed Caspian sea next August.

Seeking a larger share of the Sea, Turkmenistan and Iran have disagreed with Russia's plan for splitting the Caspian bottom along a "modified median line" while keeping the waters in common. Kazakhstan agreed and clinched a separate deal with Russia last May, while Azerbaijan still mulls signing a similar agreement. In a closed sea like the Caspian, major military exercises sound like a warning to disagreeing littoral nations.

Officially, Moscow claims the naval exercises of the Caspian Flotilla are need to combat drug traffickers, organized crime and terrorism. However, Russia's law enforcement agency, the border guard service in the Caspian, are well armed and they are not part of Russia's Caspian Flotilla. The border guards have the "Valentin Pikul," a 375-ton patrol vessel, three Mirage-type 120-ton naval vessels armed with Ataka missiles and the Igla anti-aircraft missile system, as well as a number of smaller vessels.

So far, there have been no reports of any major crackdown on crime or seaborne terrorism in the Caspian. Not surprisingly, Russian official rationale for the upcoming naval exercises failed to reassure Turkmenistan.

Russia's Caspian Flotilla traditionally has been a force for coastal defense and waterways patrol. Formed back in 1722, the Russian Caspian flotilla dominated the inland sea for centuries. Following the division of the Soviet Caspian Flotilla in 1992 between Moscow and Baku, Russia kept three quarters of naval vessels and personnel. Twenty-five percent shares were offered to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, but they declined to accept. The withdrawal of the flotilla from its former base in Baku, Azerbaijan, forced Russia to build a new base in Astrakhan.

The Kazakh navy is based in Aktau and Atyrtau ports in the eastern and northern parts of the Caspian. Kazakh naval forces include some 3,000 personnel, and armed with 10 imported coast guard boats and five smaller vessels, built at the Zenith shipyard in Uralsk, in western Kazakhstan, as well as three Mil helicopters. Moreover, Kazakhstan recently launched its own Naval Academy in Aktau indicating that it was going to build up national navy.

Tehran was long prohibited from having naval forces in the Caspian Sea, according to treaties between czarist Russia and Persia as well as the USSR and Iran. However, in the wake of the Soviet collapse, Iran has been reported to mull turning its Caspian ports, Anzali, Now Shahr, Bandar-e Torkaman and Babolsar, into naval bases. Ironically, Iran has been procuring some naval vessels from Russia, including Varshavyanka-type diesel submarine in 1995. Iranian Naval officers have been trained at the Baltiysk naval base in Russia.

Officially, Turkmenistan has no naval forces at all. However Turkmenistan reportedly procured 20 patrol boats from Ukraine. Turkmenistan has 20 Ukraine-built Grif and Kalkan patrol boats, as well as one US-built vessel. In the wake of the Soviet breakup, Turkmenistan also inherited the largest airforce group in Central Asia.

Unlike Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan owns naval facilities in Baku as well as a quarter of the former Soviet Caspian Flotilla. However, Russia reportedly acquired the best vessels while naval facilities in Baku remain in disrepair.

The Caspian Flotilla is Russia's sole naval force that has recently seen a growth of its strength. In the past five years, Russia reportedly doubled its Caspian naval force. The Caspian Flotilla includes two frigates, twelve major patrol vessels, and about fifty smaller vessels based in Astrakhan, as well as some 20,000 personnel. Moreover, in case of need the Caspian Flotilla would receive tactical support of the airforce the North Caucasus Military Region District, with its fresh combat experience in Chechnya.

In a closed sea like the Caspian, Russia's naval might had no other adversaries except other littoral states. Sergei Menyailo, 77th marine brigade commander of the Caspian Flotilla, was recently quoted as saying that "since the Caspian has oil, there are someone's interests there and these interests not necessarily coincide with Russia's interests".

No big wonder that Moscow has yielded to a temptation of gunboat diplomacy. In January 2001, during Putin's visit to Azerbaijan, Russia's Caspian Flotilla exercised with live ammunition in central parts of the Caspian Sea, then laid anchor in front of Baku. Hence it is understood Moscow still has an ability to order its fleet into waters that other Caspian countries regard as theirs.

Apart from the Caspian issues, the gathering in Aktau discussed regional problems as well. Uzbek President Islam Karimov reportedly suggested to help the postwar revival of Afghanistan. According to RIA, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev noted gradual stabilization in Kyrgyzstan "due to support" of other post-Soviet states.

It was hardly a coincidence that Nazarbayev brought his VIP guests to the country's main naval base, Aktau. Incidentally, Nazarbayev held a summit in Aktau to mark his 63rd birthday. Conveniently, there was no mention of problems between Kazakh and Kyrgyz ruling clans.

Leaders of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan became particularly close after Nazarbayev's younger daughter Alia married Akayev's elder son, Aidar, in an unprecedented dynasty-style alliance in 1998. However, the alliance went wrong and the couple became formally separated in August 2001. Last June, Alia, who's now 22 and works at her father's administration, married Kazakh businessman Daniyar Sakenov. Fortunately, the split seemingly had little repercussions relative to the bilateral relations and regional politics.

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