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North Korean, Russian ties firmly on
track
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - Moscow has pledged to restore rail links
with North Korea, while looking for economic gains from a
project that would connect its Trans-Siberian railroad
with South Korea.
On August 20-24, North Korea's
Kim Jong-il undertook yet another rail trip to Russia,
during which Russian President Vladimir Putin told him
about the need for a railroad connecting the two Koreas
with Europe via Russia, according to the official RIA
news agency.
Until recently, Russian officials
have been pessimistic about the revival of rail links
with North Korea. Just last March, Russia's railways
minister Guennady Fadeyev stated that rebuilding the
Trans-Korean Railroad and linking it to the
Trans-Siberian posed a "huge political risk" while
requiring substantial investment.
However, after
Putin made his choice, calling the project "important",
the railways ministry had no option but to hail the
project to upgrade North Korea's rail system to link the
Trans-Siberian with South Korea. Subsequently, Fadeyev
called this the most promising project in the region.
According to RIA, Fadeyev said that his ministry had
already conducted feasibility studies and considered
possible routes of the link.
Russian
railway officials now argue that the Trans-Siberian has
several advantages over the sea route as it would
slash transport costs and cut transit times to a couple
of weeks compared with more than a month by sea.
Officials say that joining the Trans-Siberian with
the Trans-Korean would enhance advantages, creating
the world's longest railroad of 14,000 kilometers.
At present only 5 percent of the shipments
between Asia-Pacific and Europe go with the Trans-Siberian.
According to the ministry, annual capacity of the
extended line could reach 500,000 containers and bring
Russia up to US$1 billion in transit fees each year.
The project was initially estimated to cost just
$250 million. However, now Russia's railway ministry
estimates that it could cost about 103 billion rubles
($3.26 billion), including upgrading the North Korean
tracks and computerizing signal systems.
On the
other hand, Moscow reportedly offered Seoul to repay its
$1.7 billion debt to South Korea by "joint" investments
in the ambitious rail project, which would open up the
9,000 kilometer Trans-Siberian railway to South Korean
exports. The project would revive the Korean railroad
system and end South Korea's current reliance on sea
freight. There is no indication of a response to this
yet.
However, it remains far from certain
whether the new route would be faster: freight would
have to be transferred onto different train cars because
Russia's tracks are wider than Korea's. Moreover,
it's still unclear how the projects would be
viewed by freight firms and insurers as South Korea is
still technically at war with North Korea.
Nonetheless, within the past two years ties
between Russia and North Korea have experienced an
obvious revival. Putin visited North Korea in July 2000
to become the first Kremlin leader ever to visit
Pyongyang. In August 2001, Kim Jong-il traveled 13,000
kilometers from the North Korean capital to Moscow and
back on the Trans-Siberian railroad.
Also in
2000, Moscow and Pyongyang signed a new treaty to
replace an outmoded Soviet-era accord of 1961. However,
bilateral trade dropped from $600 million in 1992 to
$115 million in 2001. In January-April 2002, bilateral
trade amounted to $33.6 million, including Russia's
exports of $30.2 million, according to Russia's trade
ministry.
Moreover, some 90 percent of North
Korean exports to Russia consist of cheap labor. North
Korean workers are typically engaged in forestry
projects. For instance, North Koreans plan to harvest
some one million cubic meters of wood a year in Russia's
Amur region, according to RIA.
Russia has
promised to help in rebuilding North Korean enterprises
launched during the Soviet-era, including the power
sector, although Moscow's aid is conditional on regular
payments on Pyongyang's Soviet-era debt. Pyongyang
Soviet-era debt to Moscow is estimated at between $2.9
billion and $4.4 billion - the discrepancy is caused by
disagreements over the exchange rates of the Soviet-era
currencies.
However, Kim's annual rail trips to
Russia in his armored express (Japanese-built according
one source, and a gift from Josef Stalin to Kim's father,
the late Kim Il-sung, according to another version)
leave analysts wondering about his true agenda, notably
against a backdrop of sluggish bilateral trade.
On August 21 Kim visited Komsomolsk-on-Amur
Aircraft Production Association, or KnAAPO, where Sukhoi
jets are built for China. The North Korean leader
reportedly signed a guest book, noting his "profound
respect" for the traditions of Russian aircraft
builders. In August 2001, during his previous trip to
Russia, Kim also toured a huge tank-building facility in
the Urals. Kim's interest in Russia's military plants
could be an indication of Pyongyang's appetite for
Russian-made arms.
Nearly all weapons used by
the North Korean military are obsolete Soviet-made
models. Currently, Russian arms sales to North Korea are
estimated at some $10 million a year, a minimum level to
supply the North Korean army with only most-needed spare
parts. North Korea has reportedly sought some $100
million of Russian arms supplies per annum, yet Moscow
has been reluctant to extend new loans to cash-strapped
Pyongyang.
Moreover, last March there was talk
about an alleged Russian plan to build a nuclear power
station in North Korea, although the Russia nuclear
energy minister eventually dismissed the reports.
Earlier this month, Moscow opted to dismiss these
allegations again. On August 15, Russian deputy foreign
minister Aleksandr Losyukov told ITAR-Tass that Russia
and North Korea were not engaged in any "concrete talks
on cooperation in nuclear power".
No big wonder
that Kim's trips to Russia were quite secretive. North
Korean officials reportedly insisted on allowing Russian
journalists only to cover the end of the visit. However,
not all Russian media outlets appreciated the favor.
For instance, website polit.ru described the visit as a
"mixture of businesslikeliness and pathology" and
bluntly called Kim "insane". The website also claimed
that the presence of North Korean workers, guarded by
armed North Korean security officers, amounted to
violation of Russia's sovereignty. The practice looks
like slave trade, commented polit.ru, which until
recently was a pro-Kremlin online project.
However, Kim Jong-il remained uninformed
about polit.ru's comments as he reportedly expressed
"One thousand percent" satisfaction with his visit
to Russia's Far East. Yet it remains far from
certain whether Kim's high level of satisfaction was prompted
by the rail link plans, the Kremlin's role on the
divided peninsula or hopes of receiving fresh Russian arms
supplies.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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