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Political landscape
redrawn
By Mushahid Hussain
ISLAMABAD - Although Afghanistan has been the
center of gravity in the US-led war on terror since
September 11, the countries in its vicinity have also
witnessed profound changes in the past year.
These changes - relationships that have shifted
considerably, previously held perceptions that have
undergone radical change and new policies that have been
introduced - have woven together a pattern of several
"firsts". These new realities were virtually unthinkable
a year ago.
First, for the first time since
Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, a clear de facto
convergence of interests formed between Tehran and
Washington in their shared objective of covertly
collaborating to oust their common enemy, the Taliban.
Second, prior to September 11, not one US
soldier was based in Central Asia, but now the US has
set up military bases in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan. In doing so, it has moved into a new
neighborhood where the big players are Russia, China and
Iran. And third, India has for the first time
established a military base in Tajikistan, close to the
border with Afghanistan.
Fourth, China and
Russia, in a shift of positions based on realpolitik and
their national interests, have quietly acquiesced to the
build-up of a US military presence close to their
borders. Meanwhile, Washington, in a reversal of past
policy, officially declared the Muslim dissidents in
Chechnya and Xinjiang terrorist organizations. During
his visit to Beijing in late August, US Deputy Secretary
of State Richard Armitage designated the East Turkestan
Islamic Movement (ETIM) a terrorist group.
These
firsts are pointers to a vastly different scenario from
that which existed before September 11. The change is
apparent in three areas: economic, political and
diplomatic.
By far the biggest change could be
in more cohesive economic cooperation, with countries in
the region eyeing trade access to the warm waters of the
Indian Ocean through Pakistan through a pacified
Afghanistan. This vision has been publicly expressed as
well. On August 27, President Imamali Rakhmonov of
Tajikistan and President Nursultan Nazarbayev of
Kazakhstan were reported to have told The Washington
Post that "an open highway across Afghanistan would
bring much of Central Asia within a day's drive of the
Pakistani port of Karachi".
It is with an eye on
this emerging economic opening that Pakistan has started
to build, with Chinese assistance, a port in Gwadar, off
the coast of its Balochistan province from which to
service Central Asia.
Central Asia is also
energy rich. There are enormous gas deposits in
Turkmenistan while Kazakhstan's oil reserves are
estimated to be in the vicinity of 95 billion barrels.
With international aid flowing into Afghanistan
after the Tokyo donors' conference in January 2002
resulted in US$4.5 billion in pledges, there is every
likelihood of greater regional integration.
The
vehicle for such integration could well be the
Tehran-based Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO),
whose 10 members are Pakistan, Iran, Turkey,
Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. An end to
instability and strife in Afghanistan removes the
principal roadblock to improved regional cooperation.
September 11 and its aftermath has also moved
other regional players into action.
India, which
backed the Northern Alliance against the Taliban, now
has a military presence close to Afghanistan in
Tajikistan and an agreement to help train the Tajik
military.
Iran has pledged $550 million in aid
to Afghanistan, a promise reaffirmed during President
Mohammad Khatami's visit to Kabul last month.
Western Afghanistan - with Herat as its main
city close to Iran under the warlord Ismail Khan, who
was in exile in Iran's city of Meshed during Taliban
rule - is now a region where Iranian economic, political
and cultural influence is strong. Iran is today a key
player in Afghanistan.
Turkey, which normally
has had a westward orientation, started looking east for
the first time when it backed the Turkish-speaking Uzbek
warlord, General Abdur Rashid Dostum, who spent the
years of Taliban rule in exile in Istanbul. Today, a
Turkish general heads the international peacekeeping
force in Afghanistan.
The nations of Central
Asia and their internal politics are likely to come
under closer scrutiny now that the United States seems
to have a strategic stake in the region, with a military
presence that is likely to remain for the long haul.
Vocal voices for civil liberties and democratic
rights will increasingly be heard with louder resonance
in the region. This is already evident in the tussle for
power against conservatives in Iran, where the moderates
and democrats around moderate President Khatami call for
rapprochement with Washington.
Diplomatically,
with relations between Moscow and Washington warming,
the close camaraderie growing between Russia and China
prior to September 11 has somewhat weakened, bringing
into question the future of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO).
The SCO, which groups China,
Russia Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, agreed to fight "religious extremism,
separatism and terrorism" in a June 2001 summit. But in
a post-September 11 world the relevance of this
commitment remains in doubt.
The biggest change
due to this will be felt in Central Asia, where
countries like Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
felt threatened by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan
(IMU), which found sanctuary in the Taliban's
Afghanistan.
Similarly, movements like the ETIM
in China's Xinjiang province found succor in Afghanistan
as well. The threat posed by the IMU and the ETIM has
subsided and will be easily contained now that their
bases of support and refuge have dried up.
But
the most far-reaching consequence of September 11 for
the region could well be Afghanistan's return to a
semblance of stability and normalcy after 23 years of
civil strife. Rebuilding Afghanistan will help
accelerate its rehabilitation and reconstruction as a
modern state.
Herein lies the key to the
opportunities that seem to loom large on the regional
horizon after September 11.
It is tragic that it
has required a cataclysmic event to spawn the cautious
optimism that could today be the basis for this ancient
region to fashion a future - while healing the wounds of
a violent and unstable past.
(Inter Press
Service)
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