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Under Russian eyes, Central Asia ponders
Iraq
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- As the Kremlin has repeatedly voiced its opposition to
US military action in Iraq recently, it has also been
making moves that seem designed to persuade its former
Soviet allies in Central Asia to align their positions
in pursuit of a common policy.
Although there
have been signs that the strategy is meeting with some
success in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the region's major
players, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have yet to spell out
their respective positions, despite hints that they
favor a common position.
Moscow's recent
friendly overtures towards Iraq could be interpreted as
an indication that Russia's post-September 11 drift
towards the West was far from irreversible. Notably,
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, after meeting with
his Iraqi counterpart Naji Sabri on September 2, warned
that military action by the United States could entail
further troubles in the Middle East. A US military
strike against Iraq would cause "irreparable damage" to
the US-led international campaign against terrorism,
Ivanov told reporters on September 8.
Vyacheslav
Trubnikov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, warned that
the US intention to use force against Iraq could split
the international anti-terrorist coalition. Russia's
efforts to forestall the UN approval of war against Iraq
are "tremendous", Trubnikov was quoted by Interfax on
September 10. Therefore, the Kremlin seemingly insists
on its non-violent approach towards Baghdad, presumably
bearing in mind Russia's extensive interests in Iraq.
Notably, on September 6, Russian President Vladimir
Putin told US President George W Bush in a telephone
conversation that he had serious doubts about the
justification for a military action against Iraq.
No big wonder that some of the Kremlin's former
Soviet-state allies have been listening carefully. On
September 9, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev travelled to
Russia's Southern resort of Sochi, where Russian
President Vladimir Putin spends his summer vacation. He
said it was "important" for Kyrgyzstan to get advice on
international politics from Russia, our "main strategic
partner", Akayev was quoted by RIA as saying. Akayev
reportedly added that he also sought Russian advice on
the eve of his upcoming visit to the US, due on
September 23.
While talking to journalists on
September 9 in Moscow, Kyrgyz Foreign Minister Askar
Aitmatov came close to effectively ruling out the
possibility of any use of Kyrgyz military bases in the
war against Iraq. Such a use would be "technically
difficult to imagine", Aitmatov was quoted as saying -
even though Kyrgyzstan has already granted rights to use
its Manas airbase in the anti-terrorist operation in
Afghanistan, and even though US aid to Kyrgyzstan
currently amounts to some US$500 million. The US has yet
to ask for permission to use this base against Iraq.
Putin reportedly has said that Russia views
Kyrgyzstan as its "strategic partner and ally". Although
Russian officials failed to disclose details of Putin's
advice to Akayev in Sochi, the Kremlin expressed its
continued backing of his regime. According to RIA, Putin
said that Moscow saw Akayev's efforts to "consolidate
Kyrgyz society as very important" - an apparent
disparagement of recent protests by Akayev's domestic
opponents.
A further sign of Moscow's interest
in ensuring strong security ties with Central Asia was
its recent dispatching of a high-ranking security envoy
to the region. General Valery Nikolayenko, head of the
Russia-led Collective Security Council of six
post-Soviet states (Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia), is due to visit
Tajikistan on September 11-13 and Kyrgyzstan September
14-15 to discuss issues of "military and political
cooperation", according to RIA.
Since the
breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia and Kyrgyzstan have
maintained close political and military ties, and
President Akayev has tended to support the Kremlin's
policies in the region. In response, Moscow has backed
Akayev's regime and warned against "interference in
Kyrgyz internal affairs," presumably in connection with
continued protests in southern Kyrgyzstan. Protests have
been provoked by a controversial border treaty under
which Kyrgyzstan transfers some 95,000 hectares of its
territory to China.
Since earlier this year,
Akayev's administration has faced increasing criticism
over the border agreement. Last March, five people were
killed and dozens of civilians and police injured during
riots that ensued after police tried to disperse 5,000
protesters in the Jalal-Abad province of impoverished
southern Kyrgyzstan. Since then, protests have continued
over demands to investigate police brutality. On
September 10, Kyrgyz Interior Minister Bakirdin
Subanbekov was quoted by Interfax as saying that
authorities were trying to convince some 500 people in
Jalal-Abad to stop their protests.
Interestingly, Russia's support of the Akbayev
administration coincides with an increase in the
American presence in the region. Some 2,000 American
personnel now occupy Manas air base near the Kyrgyz
capital and up to 5,000 coalition soldiers are expected
to be based there eventually.
Apart from the
Manas airbase, the US also has secured the right to use
another airbase in Uzbekistan, while the Kazakh
authorities granted the US overflight and emergency
landing rights, while neutral Turkmenistan gave the US
overflight rights. Last month, General Tommy L Franks,
commander of the US forces in Afghanistan, Central Asia
and the Persian Gulf, visited Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and
Uzbekistan and announced that the US military presence
in Central Asia was set to increase.
Subsequently, on September 9 Uzbek President
Islam Karimov traveled to Astana to meet his Kazakh
counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev. They signed a deal to
end differences over three contested border areas.
According to the deal, Kazakhstan takes control over the
Bagys and Arnasai areas while Uzbekistan acquires the
third disputed area, Nsan.
The two also made an
attempt to hash out a common position on the war on
terror. As quoted in the Kazakh presidential press
service, Nazarbayev said that "the efficiency of the
antiterrorist coalition's operations, notably in
Afghanistan, should be supported. Central Asian security
depends on relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan."
Both Kazakh and Uzbek leaders, however, remained
conspicuously silent over on-going developments around
Iraq. Neither has yet to come up with a comment on
whether Uzbek or Kazakh airbase or overflight rights so
far granted to the US could be used in a possible war
against Iraq.
Moreover, Nazarbayev reportedly
called for closer ties with Uzbekistan, allegedly
including an eventual creation of a union state.
Nazarbayev's surprise initiative was dismissed as a
gaffe by some media outlets, while Kazakh diplomats in
Moscow claimed that Nazarbayev's statement was
mis-translated.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co Ltd.
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