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Kazakhstan pushes for trilateral Caspian
deal
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- In the wake of a series of bilateral Caspian deals
between Russia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, widely seen
as an alternative to an overall agreement of all five
Caspian littoral states, now Kazakhstan has floated an
idea of a trilateral agreement in the oil-rich region.
Bilateral agreements could provide "efficient
recipes" for an overall Caspian solution, Kazakh
President Nursultan Nazarbayev told the Russian Izvestia
daily on October 4. Nazarbayev described the
Russia-backed "median line" division plan as a "just
solution".
Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan now
aimed at signing a trilateral Caspian agreement, Kazakh
deputy foreign minister Vadim Zverkov announced in
Almaty on October 3. Kazakh diplomats had worked out a
draft agreement, which had been sent to Moscow and Baku
for further discussion, Zverkov said.
Kazakhstan
is set to become a major beneficiary of the so-called
median lines division principle, which would leave
Kazakhstan with the largest part of the Caspian.
Moreover, this solution would give Kazakhstan huge
economic benefits, such as 4.5 billion tons of the sea's
estimated hydrocarbon reserves. Median lines division
would give Azerbaijan 4 billion tons of reserves, Russia
2 billion, Turkmenistan 1.5 billion and Iran 0.9
billion.
Not surprisingly, Iran insists the sea
should be split equally between the five littoral
states. This solution would give Azerbaijan and
Kazakhstan 2.84 billion tons of the reserves, Russia
2.34 billion, Turkmenistan 2.14 billion and Iran 1.94
billion. Therefore, for Kazakhstan, some 2 billion tons
of valuable energy resources are at stake. No big
wonder, then, that the Kazakh leadership is pushing for
the Russia-backed median lines division principle.
On the other hand, not only Iran, but also
Turkmenistan is set to remain a loser of the median
lines division principle. Turkmen President Saparmurat
Niyazov is yet to change his opposition towards
bilateral Caspian deals. For instance, a disgruntled
Niyazov declined to attend a Commonwealth of Independent
States (CIS) summit meeting in Chisinau, Moldova, on
October 6-7 - a potentially good venue to discuss
Caspian issues with his Russian, Azeri and Kazakh
counterparts.
Subsequently, the Chisinau summit
made no mention of the Caspian dispute. However, leaders
of the six post-Soviet nations inked a charter of the
Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia
and Kazakhstan are the CSTO's largest member states,
hence the move may arguably be seen as yet another push
towards a Russia-Kazakh alliance.
In the
meantime, Russia has solved differences with its Caspian
neighbors on how to define sea borders in the oil-rich
inland sea. On September 23, Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Azerbaijani President Geidar Aliyev signed a
border agreement on defining the sea border between
their respective Caspian sections. Putin described the
agreement as a victory of Russia's idea "to share the
seabed but not the water itself".
The agreement
between Russia and Azerbaijan, which implied for
national sectors to correspond approximately to the
length of each country's coastline and to end at a
median line drawn down the middle of the sea, was
expected to come easily as the two countries have no
disputed oil fields. However, last June's Moscow drive
toward a series of bilateral deals as an alternative to
an overall agreement of all five Caspian littoral states
was dealt a blow as a pre-announced agreement with
Azerbaijan did not materialize. It took Azerbaijan three
more months to sign the agreement on the Caspian with
Russia.
In recent years, there have been
repeated moves to resolve disputes over the Caspian Sea.
Notably, leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan,
Iran and Kazakhstan met at the unprecedented Caspian
summit in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, on April 23-24
this year. Yet they failed to achieve a consensus on how
to divide the Caspian riches. Subsequently, Iran and
Turkmenistan were blamed for the impasse.
In the
wake of that failure, Putin stated that Moscow could
push for a series of bilateral deals, instead of an
overall consensus of all five littoral states. Russia,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, reluctant to refrain from oil
exploration until the elusive consensus on the Caspian
is achieved, have been discussing bilateral agreements,
basing on the so-called "median-line" principle.
Subsequently, on May 13 Putin and his Kazakh
counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a bilateral
agreement on how to divide the Northern Caspian. The
deal implies that three hydrocarbon fields divided by
the median line, Kurmangazy, Central and Khvalynskoye,
would be exploited on parity basis by the two countries.
In the wake of the Soviet collapse, Iran has
suggested that the Caspian should be divided equally and
the five littoral states would get 20 percent of the sea
each. According to the treaties of 1921, 1940 and 1970,
Iran controls just 13 percent of the sea and is posed to
benefit greatly from equal division. Iran wants the sea
split equally between the five states, while Russia,
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan support the so-called middle
lines division principle, which would leave Iran with
the smallest part of the Caspian.
Russia had
earlier supported Iran in opposition against attempts to
divide the sea into national sectors according to the
length of the shore. Russia currently controls 19
percent of the Caspian - according to the length of its
shore - and was also to gain from equal division.
Not surprisingly, Kazakhstan (29 percent) and
Azerbaijan (21 percent) were against the idea of equal
division. However, the Russian position eventually
changed and Moscow now advocates the "median line"
solution - delineation of the seabed but not the water
itself. Nonetheless, Iran is understood to be opposed to
the division of the sea according to the length of the
shore at principle, and Turkmenistan is also against
that idea. Both nations are posed to benefit from equal
division.
Russian officials have been arguing
that bilateral agreements, such as deals with Azerbaijan
and Kazakhstan, should serve as a model for bilateral
arrangements between other Caspian littoral states.
Moscow expects that Iran and Turkmenistan could follow
Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in clinching
respective bilateral Caspian deals as multilateral
negotiations proved to be "too slow", Russia deputy
foreign minister and Caspian envoy Viktor Kalyuzhny
announced in Kazakhstan's Almaty of October 2.
Kalyuzhny's referral to the Caspian multilateral
negotiation as "too slow" sounds indicative. Presumably,
Russia is rushing to reach any solution for the Caspian
Sea so that yet another potential arbiter, the US, would
have no opportunity to intervene in the oil-rich region.
(©2002 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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