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All the world's playing
field
By Hooman Peimani
Following the NATO summit meeting in Prague last
week, US President George W Bush paid a short visit to
Russia on November 22 during which President Vladimir
Putin raised concern about the American choice of allies
in its war on terrorism.
In particular, he
expressed doubts about the reliability and sincerity of
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan for that purpose. The two
countries rank low on the Russian list of friends for
their role as the two main supporters of the Taliban,
whose rule over Afghanistan posed major security
concerns for Russia and its regional friend and ally,
Iran. In pursuit of its national interests since
September 11, the American government's elevation of
Pakistan's regional status has enabled the Pakistanis to
follow their regional objectives aggressively. Those
objectives are in conflict with the economic and
strategic interests of Russia in South and West Asia.
While targeting Saudi Arabia and Pakistan,
Putin's remarks reflected the growing dissatisfaction of
Russia with the sudden expansion of American political
and military presence in the mentioned regions over the
past year. Justified under the pretext of fighting
terrorism, this development has clearly demonstrated the
United States' plan to achieve its certain strategic
goals apart from fighting Afghanistan-based terrorist
groups. In particular, the American government's choice
of allies in its anti-terrorist campaign has raised
doubt about the weight of anti-terrorist objective in
the American expanded presence in South and West Asia.
Regarding the Saudis, Putin implied at least a
degree of moral responsibility in the September 11
terrorist attacks on the US. Thus, he reminded Bush
about the involvement of 19 Saudi citizens in the
attacks and about the financial support provided to
al-Qaeda by some Saudis. However, his main target seemed
to be Pakistan.
Referring to its role in the war
on terrorism, Putin expressed concern about the
sincerity and the long-term objectives of its military
regime now armed with nuclear weapon. Respectively, he
made ironic remarks about the suspected whereabouts of
Osama bin Laden "somewhere between Afghanistan and
Pakistan" and expressed concern about the unpredictable
behavior of the Pakistani military "armed with weapons
that exist in Pakistan, including weapons of mass
destruction". Although he did not mention it directly,
his remarks revealed Russia's dissatisfaction with the
American-orchestrated developments in South and West
Asia, including Afghanistan, in the post-Taliban era.
Despite its direct role in the creation of the Taliban,
the Americans' promotion of Pakistan as the front-line
state in the war on terrorism has increased the
Pakistani government's ability to pursue its national
interests in those regions. In most cases, the latter
are at odds with the Russian interests and those of its
regional friends and allies, Iran and India.
In
this regard, a blatant example is the American-backed
revival of the shelved gas pipeline project connecting
Turkmenistan to Pakistan via Afghanistan. In early 2002,
the three countries on the pipeline route signed a
trilateral agreement for its construction to meet
Pakistan's gas requirements and to use that country for
the export of Turkmen gas to third countries. The
implementation of the agreement requires a fully stable
and peaceful Afghanistan, which is yet to be created.
However, if it happens, Russia will certainly lose its
practical monopoly of Turkmenistan's gas exports via its
gas pipeline network. For Russia, the result will be a
significant loss of revenue and a sharp decline of
political influence in Turkmenistan. A successful
Pakistani export route for gas may well lead to its use
by Kazakhstan for its oil exports, now mainly conducted
via the Russian oil pipeline network. The consequence
for Russia will be the same as in Turkmenistan's case.
If both scenarios come true, the expected sharp decrease
in Russia's role in Central Asia's energy exports will
certainly reduce its political influence in that
neighboring region.
Beside the energy export
issue, Russia is also unhappy about the political
developments in Afghanistan since the Taliban's fall.
Contrary to expectations, post-Taliban Afghanistan is
neither peaceful nor stable. Lacking any meaningful
control over its country, the Afghan central government
is even unable to ensure the safety of its capital,
Kabul. The civil war is over, but the persistence of a
chaotic situation conducive to instability, including
war, has created a suitable ground for the rise of all
the evils associated with the civil war. In the Taliban
era, the latter endangered the security of Russia and
all Afghanistan's neighbors, excluding Pakistan, in one
form or another.
Instead of a promise of a
better future for the Afghans and security for those
regional countries suffered from the Taliban rule,
certain factors in the post-Taliban era have laid the
ground for the restoration of the environment conducive
to the rise of Taliban-type groups in Afghanistan. They
include the absence of a fully-functional central
government, the reemergence of warlords all over the
country, the expansion of turf wars between and among
them, the growth of lawlessness, and the failure of the
Americans and their allies in uprooting the Taliban and
al-Qaeda.
As was the case in the Taliban era,
Pakistan will be the main beneficiary of such a
situation, while Russia, Iran and the Central Asian
states will have to pay the price. Through direct or
indirect backing of rival warlords, mainly the Pashtun
ones, of whom many enjoy American backing, Pakistan is
seeking to promote its national interests damaged
heavily when its protege, the Taliban, collapsed.
Dominating Afghanistan is important for Pakistan both
for its own merits and also for its providing to the
Pakistanis access to landlocked Central Asia, where the
latter hope to expand economically and politically. This
is a region where Russia has sought to reestablish its
power and influence since the early 1990s.
Without a doubt, the growth of the American
presence and the expansion of Pakistan's influence with
the American backing in South and West Asia are bad news
for Russia and its regional friends and allies. Given
the increasing concern in Russia and also in Iran and
China regarding the long-term implications of the
growing American presence in their proximity, and
India's anxiety about the political and economic
expansion of its archenemy, Pakistan, these regional
powers are likely to seek closer cooperation, including
the formation of implicit or explicit alliances, to deal
with the rising threat in their proximity, an objective
that none could do on its own.
Dr Hooman
Peimani works as an independent consultant with
international organizations in Geneva and does research
in international relations.
(©2002 Asia
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