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Russia bends to get Turkmen
gas
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW -
Following weeks of hesitation, Russia has publicly
agreed with claims by Turkmen President Saparmurat
Niyazov that alleged assassination and coup attempts
against him last November were part of international
terrorism. In doing so, Moscow has distanced itself from
a point of view that Niyazov staged the attempts as a
pretext to crack down on opponents, reminiscent of
Stalin-era purges in the Soviet Union.
In
response to this cooperation with Ashgabat, Russia now
seeks increased gas purchases from Turkmenistan. Moscow
thereby also aims to reduce the threat from a planned
trans-Afghan pipeline by getting more Turkmen gas into
its sphere of influence.
Notably, on January
2-3, the head of Russia's Security Council, Vladimir
Rushailo, traveled to Ashgabat to discuss claims by
Niyazov that an alleged attempt on his life was
organized and financed in Russia. Rushailo had talks and
signed a security agreement with Redzheban Arazov, the
Turkmen vice premier and defense minister. Rushailo also
had a five-hour meeting with Niyazov, also known as
Turkmenbashi, or head of the Turkmens.
In the
wake of the alleged coup attempt, Turkmenbashi has
repeatedly hinted that Russia was implicated in the
attempt to topple him. Niyazov's motorcade reportedly
came under machine gun fire in downtown Ashgabat on
November 25. No one among Turkmenbashi's entourage was
hurt in the attack and there has been no independent
confirmation of the official version of the event.
Following his visit, Rushailo told Russian RTR
television that assassination and coup attempts against
Niyazov were part of international terrorism. Moreover,
he promised to help Turkmen authorities to investigate
the incident and apprehend suspected terrorists. Niyazov
said that he had asked Russian President Vladimir
Putin's help in locating and extraditing two of the
alleged conspirators - ex-central bank chief Khudaiberdi
Orazov and former ambassador to Turkey, Nurmukhammed
Khanamov - who are still at large.
However, in
reality it appears that the Russian mission to Ashgabat
was probably more interested in discussing hydrocarbon
resources than war on terror. Turkmenistan's gas is
important to Moscow because Russian natural gas monopoly
Gazprom needs gas to make up for the shortages created
by its export commitments to Europe and lack of domestic
investment. Gazprom's annual shortfall in supplying the
Russian domestic market is has been estimated at 30-40
billion cubic meters (bcm).
Turkmenistan has the
world's third-largest natural gas reserves, but current
exports are almost exclusively directed at former Soviet
states supplied via pipelines owned by Russia. In 1991,
Turkmenistan produced nearly 85 bcm, but the output
plunged to only 13.2 bcm in 1998 and 23 bcm in 1999. On
January 5, 2003 Niyazov announced that in 2002
Turkmenistan pumped 53 bcm of gas, thus achieving 3
percent growth over 2001. Turkmenbashi also said that
exports reached 41 bcm, while the rest was consumed
domestically. Now the bulk of Turkmen gas is being
exported to Ukraine and Russia via Russian pipelines,
while some gas exports go to Iran.
In 1997,
Turkmenistan suspended deliveries to Russia in a price
dispute, insisting that $32 per thousand cubic meters
(tcm) was too low. In December 1999, Russia's Gazprom
offered 70 percent of the payment in barter and 30
percent in cash. Turkmenistan insisted on $40-42 per tcm
with 50 percent payment in cash, and a compromise was
reached at $36 per tcm with 40 percent in cash.
According to this agreement, Turkmenistan was
supposed to export 20 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2000
and increase this figure by 10 bcm per year for three to
four years until import levels reach 50-60 bcm per year.
So far, this deal has failed to be fully implemented.
Turkmenistan and Iran have had price disagreements and
Turkmenistan's gas supplies to Iran of around 2 bcm per
year are yet to reach the agreed 5 bcm.
However,
in the wake of the recent trans-Afghanistan pipeline
deal, Turkmenistan's dependence on Russian pipelines is
due to fall away. On December 27, Afghan President Hamid
Karzai, President Niyazov and Pakistani Prime Minister
Zafarullah Khan Jamali met in Ashgabat and signed an
agreement to build the 1,400-kilometer trans-Afghanistan
pipeline that will carry natural gas from Turkmenistan
to Pakistan. The $2.5 billion pipeline, which will
transport gas from the Dauletabad field near the Iranian
border, could also be extended to India.
No big
wonder that Russian officials rushed to clinch a gas
deal with Turkmenbashi. Russia's deputy energy minister
Guennady Ustyuzhanin, who was a member of Rushailo's
mission, submitted a Russian draft of a bilateral energy
deal to Turkmen officials. Basically, Moscow suggested
that Turkmenistan export 10 bcm of gas to Russia by 2005
and 20 billion by 2008. In response, Russian offered to
export Turkmen crude oil via the Makhachkala-Novorossisk
pipeline. On January 4, Ustyuzhanin was quoted by RIA as
saying that this deal could be signed by the Russian gas
monopoly Gazprom and Turkmenneftegazprom as early as
February. He also pledged to pay for Turkmen gas in cash
without any barter dealings.
Against this
backdrop, the saga of the coup attempt against
Turkmenbashi became a matter of little importance for
Moscow, and it was happy to toe the Turkmen line.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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