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Russia: Pakistan seeks shift in
alliances
By Ron Synovitz
PRAGUE - Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf
arrived in Moscow on Tuesday on a three-day visit aimed
at strengthening strategic and economic relations. It is
the first official visit to the Kremlin by a Pakistani
leader in nearly two decades. Relations between the two
countries have been overshadowed since the late 1970s by
historic divisions on Afghanistan.
Analysts in
Europe and South Asia are watching developments for
signs of shifting strategic partnerships for Pakistan
and its nuclear rival in the region, India.
Among those experts is Christopher Langton, the
head of defense analysis at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies in London. "It is an unusual
visit. [President Vladimir] Putin and Russia, of course,
are closer to India. So to have Pakistan's president
coming to Moscow is of great interest," Langton said.
Indeed, relations between Moscow and Islamabad
have been uneasy since Afghanistan was occupied by
Soviet forces in 1979. During the 10-year Soviet
occupation, Pakistan became a staging area for US-backed
Afghan mujahideen fighters.
Following the Soviet
withdrawal from Afghanistan, support from Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) also helped the
Taliban rise to power during the mid-1990s. Musharraf,
however, aligned his country with the United States in
the war against terrorism after the attacks of September
11. Recent attempts by Islamabad to improve ties with
Russia have also been soured by the Kremlin's weapons
deals with India.
But there are increasing signs
of tension in Islamabad's relations with Washington.
Akram Gizabi, an expert for Jane's Islamic Affairs
Analyst - a British journal by the same group that
publishes Jane's Defense Weekly - reported this week
that the ISI is now actively helping remnants of the
Taliban regroup within Pakistan's western tribal regions
for cross-border attacks into southern and southeastern
Afghanistan.
Langton said that Gizabi's
assessment highlights concerns in Washington about a
possible resurgence of Taliban supporters. He said that
the recent election of pro-Taliban Islamic
fundamentalists in Pakistan's Northwest Frontier
Province and Balochistan, both of which border
Afghanistan, has further dampened Islamabad's relations
with the US.
At the same time, Langton noted
that Washington and others have been improving their
diplomatic, strategic, and economic ties with India.
"The strategic partnerships, both toward India and
Pakistan, have shifted to some degree. India is in
business now with the United States on a number of
projects and [with] Israel on the Arrow air-defense
missile system. And [India has also improved ties with]
Iran, commercially in particular. Pakistan, and
Musharraf in particular, need every friend they can get
at this minute, because the political situation inside
Pakistan has changed. The MMA party, which is a
pro-Taliban party in control now of the two western
provinces of the country on the Afghan border, makes
life very difficult internally for Musharraf," Langton
said.
As a result, Langton said that the timing
of Musharraf's Moscow trip is critical. "[Musharraf]
will be looking outside to establish new relationships
to stabilize the country's future both commercially and
militarily. And this, again, is very much part of his
visit to Moscow," Langton said.
Langton noted
that Musharraf's visit comes at the initiative of Putin,
who extended the invitation last summer. Thus, Langton
said that he also sees the visit in terms of a Kremlin
bid to enhance Russia's role in South Asia while other
strategic partnerships are shifting. "We could look at
the background on what Putin is doing in Central, South,
and East Asia vis-a-vis diplomacy and see that he is
trying to establish some kind of leadership over
diplomatic issues in that region, which would then
answer the question as to why Musharraf would come to
Moscow against that background," Langton said.
Junaid Ahsan, a researcher at the Pakistan
Institute for International Affairs in Karachi, told
RFE/RL that improved ties between the US and India in
recent months have caused the Kremlin to reexamine its
relations with Islamabad. "India's relationship with
Russia is not going very [well], because Russia doesn't
[like the fact] that India has [recently developed a]
very strategic and in-depth relationship with the United
States," Ahsan said.
And Ahsan said the warmer
relationship between India and the United States has
left Musharraf desperate to expand his strategic ties
with other countries. "The timing of this visit is very
critical because every other country -- mostly in Europe
and specifically the United States -- is now putting
pressure on Pakistan. So there are possibilities that
there will be some new strategic steps in [Musharraf's
Kremlin] visit. The international community must
understand that [any shift in Pakistan's ties with
Russia] is also in relation with China," Ahsan said.
The Foreign Ministry in Islamabad said Musharraf
and Putin plan to meet tomorrow to discuss agreements on
economic and defense cooperation. The ministry said the
two leaders also will discuss Iraq and continuing
volatility in Afghanistan.
The ministry said
that Musharraf will seek Moscow's support for
negotiations with India over the disputed region of
Kashmir. India has controlled much of the
Muslim-majority region and three wars have been fought
with Pakistan since 1947.
With there is little
for New Delhi to gain through such negotiations, India
has opposed the idea of any talks on redrawing the
current Line of Control in Kashmir, the de facto border
in place since the 1971 war that saw East Pakistan break
away from Islamabad to become Bangladesh.
But
officials in Islamabad this week said they think Putin
can play an important role in arranging peace talks that
could bring an end to the low-intensity skirmishes
between Indian and Pakistani troops that have continued
across the Line of Control for the past 18 years.
Ahsan explained Islamabad's expectations, "After
this visit, there will be some new news and some new
strategic alliances - maybe hidden or maybe very open -
on the regional and bilateral issues. And obviously
they'll be discussing Afghanistan in particular, because
Pakistan and Russia were former enemies on that front.
But now the situation has changed."
Still,
relations between Moscow and New Delhi are not at an
impasse. Just last month, Russia signed an agreement
with India for joint development of an advanced fighter
jet, for joint production of the Brahmos cruise missile,
and for sales of submarines.
Copyright (c)
2002, RFE/RL Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
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