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Europe's nascent eastern
alliance
By Jeremy Bransten
PRAGUE - French President Jacques Chirac pulled
out all the stops during Russian President Vladimir
Putin's state visit to France this week, even casting
aside protocol on Putin's arrival to personally greet
him at the airport, instead of settling for the
customary first handshake at the Elysee Palace in
central Paris.
And Putin, who wraps up his
three-day visit today, repaid his host's consideration
by publicly siding with France and Germany, in their bid
to prolong United Nations inspections missions in Iraq
and avert US-led military action against Saddam
Hussein's regime.
Putin's signaling that he is
not currently prepared to support the United States
should it seek a further UN resolution comes just days
of the crucial February 14 report by chief UN weapons
inspector Hans Blix before the Security Council.
Coming at a time when Chirac faces intense
pressure from Washington and several other European
allies in NATO to fall into line, Putin's show of
support is an important boost for the French president.
Speaking at a joint news conference with Putin
on February 10, Chirac stressed the common front formed
by France, Germany and Russia: "There is still an
alternative to war, we are sure of that. The use of
force would constitute only the last resort. Russia,
Germany, and France are determined to do everything they
can to ensure that Iraq is disarmed through peaceful
means."
But does Putin's position signal that
Moscow is pulling away from Washington, at a time when
the administration of US President George W Bush has
made its partners' willingness to sanction force against
Iraq a test of trans-Atlantic friendship? No, says
veteran Russian foreign policy analyst Vyacheslav
Nikonov, director of Moscow's Politika Foundation.
Nikonov tells RFE/RL that Russia is not ready to
sacrifice its special post-September 11 relationship
with the United States. He says Putin, by necessity, is
engaged in a balancing act: "Putin has a rather
difficult task to manage. Any war with Iraq is not his
war, it's not a Russian matter. And in these conditions,
he is seeking to maintain normal relations with all of
Russia's key partners, with our main economic partners
which are West European countries such as Germany and
France, in the first place; with the United States, as a
strategic partner; with Muslim countries, which frame
our geopolitical borders in the south; and with the
Muslim population within Russia itself. This is a very
difficult task. It is analogous to a high-wire balancing
act over a precipice. But so far, Putin has succeeded.
He is leaving all doors open and has been smart enough
not to spoil relations with anyone."
Foreign
affairs expert Marie Mendras, of the Paris-based Center
for International Study and Research (CERI), says
Putin's current backing of France suits Russia's
strategic interests. By stressing the leading role of
the UN Security Council, where it - like France - has
veto power, Russia raises its own profile. At little
cost, Putin can thus demonstrate to a domestic audience
that Russia is following an independent course that is
not subject to US dictates.
"For Putin, it's
very good news to be able - at a very low cost - not to
have to side with the US 100 percent, because it's quite
productive in internal Russian politics," she said.
"Among the elites, the idea that Russia doesn't have to
be a surrogate of the United States is excellent. And
Russian public opinion is also quite happy that Russia
can have its own voice and can be a partner of European
powers and is not only 100-percent directed toward a
partnership with the United States."
As an added
bonus, Russia's backing of Paris and Berlin allows
Moscow to exploit the rift in NATO caused by German and
French opposition to military action in Iraq.
Mendras added: "There's one thing that Vladimir
Putin can rejoice at. He recently decided to accept NATO
enlargement to the former satellites of the Soviet Union
and even to the Baltic states. And so the fact that NATO
today is in crisis and that there has been an ongoing
debate over the last 10 years about the future of NATO -
the fact now [allows him to] say: 'You see, NATO is not
such a strong and united alliance, it's very complicated
and maybe in some ways outmoded. It's not adapted to the
new dangers and the new stakes.'"
But Mendras
does not believe Moscow's tilt toward France negates its
attempts to cultivate a strategic relationship with the
United States: "I don't think one should look at it as a
zero-sum game. If Russia sides with France and Germany
on refusing the automatic logic of war against Iraq, it
doesn't mean that Russia wants to destroy its strategic
partnership with the United States. I think it wants
both. It wants to be accepted by the United States as a
special partner in strategic affairs and
nonproliferation issues and the so-called war against
global terrorism. But Russia also wants to keep a
European hand, to be a partner in European security."
For Chirac, Mendras says, the situation is
potentially trickier. For now, the French president can
count on strong backing from the French people. Polls
show a large majority of French people are opposed to
what they view as the US administration's march toward
war.
"The majority of the French are very much
against Saddam's regime and very much for a solution
that would mean that the regime would fall and something
better would come in Iraq," Medras said. "But the French
are growing more anti-American, in the sense of opposing
the Bush administration's methods, rhetoric, and what is
called in France the unilateralism of the US. This is
really the atmosphere in France."
If a US-led
war does break out in coming weeks, however, France's
government may have to reevaluate its stance and go
against public opinion. Paris remains anchored in the
defense and political architecture of NATO and cannot
afford to permanently damage its ties with Washington
and fellow NATO allies, most of whom already back
Washington's stance. In addition, France will not want
to be left out of any postwar settlement in Iraq,
especially when it comes to oil and reconstruction
projects.
Mendras: "What if the U.S. goes to
war, even against the opinion of the Security Council
and the opinion of France, Germany, Russia and several
other countries? Because we are a member of NATO -
France is a member of NATO - it will be very difficult
to devise a French position that will not go against the
interest of the United States and NATO partners that
will be involved in the conflict. That's really the
question mark and it's very difficult to say today, to
predict what the French position will be in case the US
goes to war without the approval of the United Nations."
Jacques Beltran, at the French Institute of
International Affairs (IFRI), says much will depend on
the February 14 testimony by the weapons inspectors in
front of the Security Council.
"France's
position today really depends on what the inspectors are
going to say on Friday," Beltran said. "If the
inspectors go to the UN Security Council and say that
Baghdad has significantly changed its behavior, it's
going to be very difficult for France. Whatever the
economic interests or strategic interests in the
reconstruction of Iraq, it will be very difficult for
the French government to take part in this operation. If
inspectors, on the contrary, say that Baghdad hasn't
changed its behavior, that it carries on with passive
cooperation and not active cooperation, then following
France's line that war is not ruled out, France could
join an operation. So it really depends on what the
inspectors are going to say and what the prospects are
for efficient inspections in the future."
Beltran approves of the French government's
current policy but he says Chirac made a mistake and
needlessly curtailed his maneuvering room by giving the
world the impression that Paris's position is identical
to Germany's pacifist stance: "If there's one mistake to
find in France's policy in the recent weeks or months, I
think it's probably the position France adopted on the
occasion of the commemoration of the Elysee Treaty, the
Franco-German treaty. At that time, President Chirac and
Foreign Minister [Dominique] de Villepin both mentioned
that France's position was very close to the German one.
This, I think, was completely wrong. Germany has adopted
a very pacifist position, ruling out any war even if
it's decided with a UN Security Council resolution. This
is not the French position and this mistake, I think,
was corrected when [de Villepin] intervened after [US
Secretary of State Colin] Powell's presentation to the
UN Security Council. Basically, de Villepin came back to
France's initial position, which is that war is not
ruled out, but we want to push - as far as possible and
as much as possible - the peaceful solution of
inspections."
And what about Russia? What are
the chances that it too may reverse course and end up
siding with a US-led war? Vyacheslav Nikonov in Moscow
says it could yet happen and public opinion, as in many
other European countries - which have come out in favor
of the US position despite strong antiwar majorities
among their respective citizens - will largely be
disregarded.
"Public opinion is a factor in the
politics of any state. But, as we can see, around the
world, it's not having much of an impact. In Britain,
public opinion opposes war," Nikonov said.
"Nevertheless, there will be a war with British
participation. In the United States, a majority wants
military action to be sanctioned by the United Nations.
But it appears military action will take place without
that sanction. As for Russian public opinion, I can't
say that the Iraq issue has elicited strong passions.
Saddam Hussein doesn't have so many fans in Russia. Of
course, American military action against Iraq will be
seen by most people as aggression, as a violation of
international law, but I don't think it will cause
serious protests, as was the case during the bombing of
Belgrade."
The game of high-stakes political
poker continues. And in politics, as in poker, it isn't
necessarily the hand you're dealt that matters, but how
you play it.
Copyright (c) 2003, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
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