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Putin and Musharraf look to the
future
By Ramtanu Maitra
On
the face of it, Pakistan President General Pervez
Musharraf's three-day visit to Moscow earlier this month
was an exercise in futility. New Delhi shouted from the
rooftop that the trip was a failure, and a number of
Russian commentators, who saw no tangible results from
the trip, concurred. But to focus on the lack of results
in terms of deals or agreements or spectacular
breakthroughs may be to miss the point.
It has
been nearly two decades since a Pakistani president
visited Moscow - itself an indicator that this was no
ordinary meeting. And these two decades were
particularly tumultuous for the region that is of vital
concern to both nations. During this period the
erstwhile Soviet Union's army was defeated and left
Afghanistan in disgrace. During this period the Soviet
Union as a nation came to an end, and today consists of
16 sovereign states, six of them Muslim-majority states.
During this same period, Pakistan, with arms
from the United States and financing from Saudi Arabia
and the cash-rich poppy fields of Afghanistan, developed
and trained an orthodox Islamic militia, the Taliban,
which turned out to be a terror not only for India and
the West, but also for Russia. And during this period,
the Muslim-majority Central Asian nations emerged and
began developing their own foreign policy to engage the
major nations of the region - Russia, India and China -
as well as the US, in building their future.
Frozen in time
Throughout the entirety
of these two definitive decades, Russia-Pakistan
relations remained frozen in a state of inactive
hostility. In Russian eyes, Pakistan was just another
unruly and unreliable Muslim nation that was not only
close to the US and China, but also tended to define
itself by its enmity toward Russia's natural ally,
India. From the Pakistani viewpoint, Russia was a
diminished power committed wholly to friendship with
India. Islamabad has always considered Moscow to be
completely biased on the India-Pakistan issue and,
therefore, not worth courting seriously.
On
February 6 those, particularly in South Asia, who view
the India-Pakistan issue as the bellwether, were keen to
find out what President Vladimir Putin told Musharraf on
this account. Putin urged Musharraf, as he also urges
India, to begin talks to ease the tensions along the
borders, they learned. But soon after the Pakistani
president's return to Islamabad, New Delhi ousted five
Pakistan embassy officials, including the charge
d'affaires. Pakistan retaliated immediately, removing
five Indian officials from Islamabad. It would, of
course, have been nothing short of a miracle if Putin,
over a 130-minute meeting with Musharraf, were to have
dissolved the hostility that has encased India-Pakistan
relations for more than 55 years. Still, many observers
quickly concluded the talks had "failed".
Of
course, Russia-Pakistan relations cannot really take off
while the India-Pakistan relationship remains stormy.
Surely Moscow realizes that the India factor impinges on
both sides of the relationship. And Pakistan's
objective, as was evident from Musharraf's approach in
Moscow, is to see that Russia establishes a "balance" in
ties with India and Pakistan. Putin's projection of
Russia as an honest broker friendly to both, rather than
a country with a tilt toward one side, was a big step
forward.
Focus on Central
Asia
According to some analysts, Pakistan was
also hoping to ink a memorandum of understanding in
Moscow bringing the Russian natural gas monopoly Gazprom
into a planned project to build a US$3.2 billion gas
pipeline from Iran to India. That did not materialize.
Pakistan may have failed to clinch lucrative
business and economic deals during the trip, but that
the meeting was held at all suggests that Pakistan and
Russia have come to realize that they need each other.
They need each other to maintain stability in the highly
volatile region in which they live. Pakistan, though not
a major economic power, has close ties with both China
and the US. Pakistan is also in the middle of the war
against terrorism - in fact, Pakistan holds many
potentially critical cards in this key battle. After
sitting on the fence for decades, Moscow, it seems, has
finally come to realize the necessity of bringing
Pakistan into the circle of nations with whom Russia
must open a dialogue for restoring and maintaining
regional security.
There are some significant
indications that Islamabad, for its part, is trying to
move out of the zero-sum game it has been involved in
for years. Pakistan's foreign policy is being
re-oriented, with a greater focus on the region. Last
month's visit of Iran's President Mohammad Khatami to
Islamabad; the gas pipeline accord between Pakistan,
Turkmenistan and Iran; and the Kabul Declaration of
Friendship and Good Neighborliness of December 22, to
which Pakistan is a signatory, are all steps toward a
region-based foreign policy - of which Musharraf's
Moscow mission was an integral component.
Musharraf added a surprise element from his
side, with the bold idea to join the regional Shanghai
Cooperation Organization (SCO) grouping organized by
China and Russia that also includes Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Pakistan intends
to join the SCO and expects Russian backing, Musharraf
told news agencies on the eve of his departure for
Moscow. Russian leaders refrained from any clear-cut
reaction, and the idea was not mentioned during the
talks at the Kremlin. Nonetheless, it is evident that
Russia will dutifully weigh up the option Pakistan has
offered. What price Islamabad will have to pay to join
the SCO, will, however, not be decided entirely by
Moscow.
In the aftermath of the regime change in
Afghanistan and the ongoing war on terrorism, Russia is
also seeking a greater political and economic role in
the region. Russia is concerned about the re-emergence
of the US in the region under the pretext of fighting
terrorism. The US military presence in neighboring
states like Uzbekistan and Tajikistan does not comfort
Russia. Moscow has beefed up its relations with China,
Iran and Afghanistan - and the invitation to Musharraf
was part of this deliberate push to enhance the circle
of nations in the region with whom it maintains positive
communication. Moscow wants to retain and expand its
clout in a friendlier regional environment, and improved
relations with Pakistan would be a major political plus.
Pakistan and the Taliban
There are
particularly compelling reasons for Russia to open a
diplomatic channel with Pakistan. Pakistan gravely hurt
Russia in Afghanistan in the 1980s, and posed serious
problems to Russia in the 1990s.
When the
Americans lost interest in Afghan affairs following
Soviet defeat in 1989, they left Pakistan to manage the
various Afghan mujahideen leaders. Eventually, after a
difficult seven years, Islamabad got control of
Afghanistan by building up the Taliban militia.
Pakistani regulars armed, trained and fought alongside
the Taliban forces, helping the militia to conquer
almost 95 percent of Afghanistan by the year 2000 and
brought Taliban troops face to face with Russian troops
located across the river in Tajikistan. Subsequent
intelligence information confirmed that Pakistan
harbored and trained some of the anti-Russian
secessionists from Chechnya and noted Islamic militants
from the Ferghana Valley in Central Asia. Weakened
internally and lacking adequate leverage on Islamabad,
Moscow could only watch helplessly and blame Pakistan.
Today, as the Americans become more deeply
involved in Iraq and the Middle East, they may opt to
pack up and leave Afghanistan, abandoning the promised
reconstruction effort in that pivotal country. That
would weaken the American position and strengthen both
the Russian and Chinese positions in Central Asia. And,
as nature abhors a vacuum, it would not be surprising to
find Pakistan, with a large Pashtun population of its
own, once again moving in to pick up the pieces for its
own aims - just as it did in 1989, following the
departure of the defeated Soviet army and abandonment by
the victorious Americans.
There is no question
that a similar situation could develop again in
Afghanistan in the near future. Many expect that it is a
matter of time before the present Afghan government goes
into exile and the Americans, and their allies, leave
Afghanistan lock, stock and barrel. But Russia lives in
the region; Russia does not have the option to quit. If
it wants to remain a great power, Russia must provide
security to its own geographical territory and those
countries that border Russia. And, the recent invitation
to Musharraf is an indication that Moscow has learned
the lesson, and is working in new ways to improve the
neighborhood. The opening to Pakistan is one way, and a
push to re-launching trade is another.
Trade
initiative
Moscow is working in close
coordination with two of its major allies in the region,
Tehran and New Delhi, to bring Indo-Iranian trade to
Central Asia via Afghanistan. Last month, when Iranian
President Mohammad Khatami was in New Delhi as the chief
guest on India's Republic Day, India and Iran signed an
agreement to develop the Iranian port of Chahbahar and
build 200 kilometers of railroad from Chahbahar to the
Garland Road in western and northern Afghanistan. This
road will link India and Iran to Central Asian trade. On
January 6, at another meeting in Tehran, India, Iran and
Afghanistan signed an agreement to give Indian goods
heading for Central Asia and Afghanistan preferential
treatment and tariff reductions at Chahbahar. India
additionally agreed to finance the upgrading of the road
between the port and the Afghan border.
Russia
is shoring up its assets within Afghanistan to ensure
smooth conduct of trade and transportation. Jane's
Defense Weekly recently reported on a $40 million
helicopter deal between Russia and the Jamaat-e-Islami,
the powerful faction within the Northern Alliance in
Afghanistan headed by Defense Minister Mohammad Qassim
Fahim. The contract calls for Russia to provide
transport helicopters, gunships and spare parts directly
to Fahim's ministry rather than to the Afghan National
Army, which is now under construction under the watchful
eyes of the US and its allies.
Iran, for its
part, has provided military aid to the private militia
of the powerful governor of Herat, Ismail Khan. Reports
of similar military hardware support by India to the
Northern Alliance have also surfaced.
Putin
likely conveyed to Musharraf that Russia is aware of the
developments in the region and is preparing for the
eventual departure of the Americans and their allies. It
is likely that Putin has also conveyed to Musharraf the
fact that he does not want to see the rise of the
Taliban, particularly under the protection of the
Pakistani army. It is certain that neither Moscow, nor
Iran, nor India, intend to be caught unprepared, leaving
the plains of Afghanistan to Pakistan and its
handmaidens, religious fundamentalists such as the
Taliban.
Moscow is also fully aware of
Islamabad's political and religious compulsions.
Pakistan's closeness to China is yet another factor that
Russia takes seriously. Significantly, China welcomed
Musharraf's visit to Moscow and hoped that it would
further help peace and development in the region. When
asked to comment on the visit, a spokesperson of the
Chinese government said that Pakistan and Russia are
both friendly neighbors of China.
(©2003 Asia
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