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Concerns and divisions in Central
Asia
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- In the wake of the military onslaught to oust Saddam
Hussein, governments in Central Asia have tightened
security precautions. These states are wary of the
conflict’s potential consequences, yet disagreements
among them emerge on whether to back the US-led
coalition, or stick with the Russian critical position.
Although no fears have been voiced so far over
the possibility of the war directly affecting Central
Asia, the relative proximity of the region to Iraq makes
authorities concerned about some related problems.
Central Asia governments have ordered the police to
reinforce security around US and British embassies and
other diplomatic facilities. Moreover, Kazakhstan has
announced that it has increased the monitoring of the
country’s airspace, and in Kyrgyzstan officials have
announced that security measures around the US military
air base Manas near the capital Bishkek have been
strengthened. The base is used for US troops operating
in Afghanistan.
So far, Tajikistan remains the
only Central Asian state to directly criticize the
coalition, calling the attack against Iraq a "failure in
diplomacy". A commentary broadcast on state-controlled
Tajik radio after American-led forces started the
offensive towards Baghdad said, "There is no evidence of
the Iraqi leader’s cooperation with international
terrorists." The radio commentary also depicted the Iraq
offensive as a "mistake", well in line with Russian
President Vladimir Putin’s statement on March 20, which
also described the war as a "big mistake".
No
big wonder that Tajikistan backed the Russian anti-war
stance since the Tajik regime still largely depends on
Russian military backing. Some 20,000 personnel of the
201st Division and border guards are currently stationed
in Tajikistan.
Tiny mountainous Kyrgyzstan has
taken a pacifist approach. It advocates the soonest end
of the war on Iraq, Kyrgyz deputy Foreign Minister
Zheyenbek Kulubayev has announced. However, Kyrgyzstan
will not authorize the use of the Manas base for strikes
against Iraq, Kulubayev was quoted as saying by the RIA
news agency.
Kyrgyzstan also expressed concern
about undesired population movements triggered by the
fighting. Kyrgyz security council head Boris Poluetov
reportedly expressed concern about an "uncontrolled
influx of citizens from neighboring countries", RIA
reported. Poluetov added that border controls had been
boosted to guard against illegal migration.
Kazakhstan allowed the US-led coalition to use
its airspace as part of the military campaign in
Afghanistan. However, the economic repercussions of the
Iraq war may also be painful for Kazakhstan - the state
relies heavily on the development of hydrocarbon
resources.
Therefore, Kazakh authorities have
voiced concern about a potential medium-term drop in
global energy prices. A significant drop in the price of
oil and gas could cause a budgetary crisis for the
Kazakh government. According to a presidential press
service statement, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev
has instructed officials to develop contingency plans to
cushion the potential blow to Kazakhstan caused by
volatile energy prices. On March 25, Putin had talks
over the phone with Nazarbayev to discuss Iraq and they
reportedly pledged a shared position.
Kazakhstan
did voice concern over the split in the United Nations.
The Kazakh Foreign Ministry said in a statement that "a
dangerous tendency towards a split and the absence of a
common stance on the Iraqi situation have appeared in
the world community. Kazakhstan adheres to the
principled position of support for the UN, and stands
for resolving key international problems only within the
framework of that organization."
However,
Kazakhstan has refrained from an outright pro-peace
statement that might be interpreted as directed against
the US. For instance, Kazakhstan's Foreign Ministry has
accused Saddam Hussein for the start of a new war. "The
responsibility for the latest developments lies with
Saddam Hussein, who has failed to provide convincing
evidence of his country's disarmament," the ministry
said in a statement.
The strongest of America's
backers in Central Asia has been Uzbekistan. President
Islam Karimov has voiced support to the coalition
military action in Iraq. Uzbek television, in a
documentary broadcast, compared Saddam to former Soviet
dictator Joseph Stalin. Moreover, there have been
reports that Uzbek censorship did not allow any anti-war
coverage in domestic media outlets.
It is
understood that Tashkent backs Washington in the hopes
that their support will be rewarded with increased
levels of American aid. "Uzbekistan supported the US war
on Iraq because Uzbek leadership is interested in an
increased American role in Central Asia," argues
Konstantin Zatulin, head of the Moscow-based CIS
Institute. The one-sided Uzbek position may be
attributed to the fact that Uzbekistan is one of the
region’s leading recipients on the US military aid.
Before the start of the war, Turkmenistan had
tentatively backed Washington’s stance over Iraq.
Earlier this month, Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov
stated that Turkmenistan followed the US course of
action, notably in terms of protecting the Turkmen
minority in Iraq. However, as the war started
Turkmenistan, which describes itself as a neutral state,
has largely refrained from commenting.
Arguably,
Moscow might have wanted to step in and discourage
Turkmenistan from backing the war. On March 25, Putin
had talks over the phone with Turkmen President Niyazov
to discuss Caspian and energy cooperation. The Kremlin
press service did not mention any discussions relative
to Iraq.
In the meantime, Russian observers warn
that the Iraqi crisis could have a negative impact in an
already volatile region. In the longer term, the war on
Iraq will inevitably affect internal stability and
economic security of Central Asian states, argues
Yevgeny Kozhokin, head of the Moscow-based Institute of
Strategic Studies. Weakening the UN, the guarantor of
the state sovereignty principle, could prove detrimental
for the interests on Central Asian states, which do not
possess any significant armed forces, he said.
Therefore, at least three Central Asian states
are wary of the US unilateral approach on Iraq, yet all
three countries want to avoid alienating the US. These
states have either close relationships with Russia, or,
like Kazakhstan, may be dealt an economic blow from the
war in Iraq, hence their concerns over the Iraq crisis
seem to be growing. In the meantime, debate over the war
seems to deepen divisions in Central Asia, a trend
unlikely to increase stability in the region.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
for information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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