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Russia warns of Iraqi fallout
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW -
Against a backdrop of raging war on Iraq, Moscow warns
that the other "axis of evil" states, North Korea and
Iran, might find the temptation of using weapons of mass
destruction even more irresistible. In both cases, the
Russians are well positioned to come up with such
warnings.
The war against Iraq is likely to
entail faster development of nuclear weapons in Iran and
North Korea, warns Leonid Shebarshin, former head of
Russia's foreign intelligence, and Iran may well become
Washington's next target, he says.
Furthermore,
not only retired generals but also Russia's acting
officials make similar warnings. For instance, on March
27, Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov told
journalists in Moscow that the US policy of "regime
change" may cause WMD proliferation. "Some nations may
view themselves in relative safety only when possessing
these weapons," he said.
Even before the Iraqi
war started, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov had
warned that the danger in the nuclear crisis over North
Korea could be much greater than the Iraq situation. In
the wake of the US-led war on Iraq, Pyongyang has
claimed that it could be next. On March 29, North
Korea's Foreign Ministry accused the US of outrageous
behavior and state terrorism. North Korea also declines
to allow nuclear inspections, claiming that Iraq had
made this mistake.
Last February, the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a
resolution declaring North Korea in noncompliance of its
obligations under international accords. The IAEA's move
is opening the way for economic sanctions or other
punitive measures against the country, which Pyongyang
has made clear it would regard as an act of war.
The former Soviet Union was one of North Korea's
main suppliers of nuclear know-how when the two were
Cold War allies. Russia now says that its nuclear
cooperation with the isolationist communist country
ended nearly a decade ago.
Pyongyang's nuclear
program started with a small Soviet-supplied
isotope-producing facility. The former Soviet Union and
North Korea signed a nuclear cooperation treaty in 1956.
In 1965, Soviet experts launched Yongbyon, a 5 megawatt
reactor 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang. It has been
speculated that North Korea could have some nuclear
material from the former Soviet republics.
According to some Russian estimates,
theoretically Pyongyang could have enough plutonium for
more than 60 nuclear bombs. However, Russian experts
have argued that North Korea would be unable to develop
operational nuclear bombs without live tests.
Last February, North Korea threatened to strike
US targets anywhere in the world. South Korea has
already asked Moscow to mediate in the crisis on the
Korean peninsula. Russian President Vladimir Putin has
repeatedly promised Moscow's assistance in dealing with
North Korea.
No wonder that Seoul repeatedly
sought Moscow's mediation. For instance, South Korea's
national security advisor Ra Jong-yil traveled to Moscow
to discuss the North Korean nuclear problem. The Korean
peninsula must remain free of nuclear weapons, Russia's
Security Council secretary Vladimir Rushailo told the
Korean envoy on March 31. "The North Korean nuclear
program should be peaceful and limited by a
non-proliferation regime," Rushailo was quoted as saying
by RIA.
On the even of the war on Iraq, a flurry
of diplomatic activities took place between Russia and
another "rogue state", Iran. Notably, a meeting of the
Iran-Russia Economic Commission was held in Tehran on
March 17-19. The head of Russia's delegation and State
Property Minister Farid Gazizulin met Iran's Defense
Minister Ali Shamkhani. "Cooperation between Iran and
Russia is to contribute to sustaining peace and prevent
conflicts in the region," Shamkhani reportedly told
Gazizulin.
In a separate development, earlier in
March, visiting Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov
announced in Tehran that Moscow will continue its
nuclear energy cooperation with Iran in the framework of
the IAEA. "Iran has no plans to produce nuclear military
projects, this is a fundamental truth," Ivanov
reportedly stated in a joint news conference with
Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi in Tehran.
On
March 14, the Russian Foreign Ministry once again said
in a statement that Russia and Iran pledged to continue
nuclear cooperation, which is "of completely peaceful
character".
Likewise, Russians are well informed
about Iran's nuclear ambitions as Moscow makes no secret
of its continuing nuclear flirting with Iran. For
instance, some 100 Iranians are being trained at
Novovoronezh nuclear facility in Central Russia as
future personnel for the Bushehr nuclear plant. Over 700
Iranians are to be trained by the time the first reactor
of the Bushehr power plant is due to be launched in
2004.
However, on March 11, Russia's Nuclear
Power Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said that although
Moscow was helping Iran develop nuclear power, it could
not say whether Tehran was secretly developing nuclear
arms, as the US claims. Therefore, Rumyantsev
backpedaled from his own February 21 statement that
"Iran does not have the capacity to build nuclear
weapons".
Russia has long come under heavy
criticism from the West for its help in building the
Bushehr nuclear plant on Iran's Gulf coast. The US
claims that the Russian technology could be used to
develop nuclear weapons, but Moscow and Tehran argue
that the plant can be used only for civilian purposes
and will remain under international control.
Moscow has brushed off repeated US demands that
it cancel the US$800 million Bushehr 1,000 megawatt
light-water nuclear reactor project. The Kremlin has
repeatedly argued it abides by international agreements
banning the proliferation of nuclear technologies.
The Kremlin secured a number of deals when
Iranian President Mohammad Khatami visited Russia in
March 2001. Khatami and Putin signed a cooperation
treaty, the first major accord between the two countries
since the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran.
Moreover, in October 2001, Moscow and Tehran
signed framework agreements for further supplies of
Russian military equipment to Iran to be worth $300-400
million annually. The accord would reportedly involve
supplies of spare parts for Russian-made weapons, new
fighter jets and possibly air defense, ground-to-ground
and anti-ship systems.
Neither agreement makes
Russia and Iran strategic partners, but they are aimed
at further strengthening what was officially described
as "partner-like, neighborly relations". It has been
rumored in Moscow that a more formal alliance treaty
with Iran could be one of Moscow's countermeasures
against US-backed regime change in Iraq.
(©2003
Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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