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Putin's new correlation of
forces
By Peter Lavelle
What
is Vladimir Putin doing? What does he want?
Prior to the American-led strike against Saddam
Hussein's Iraq, Russia was playing the role of a free
rider against the war on the backs of France and Germany
and threatening to veto any American-sponsored
resolution in the United Nations Security Council
legitimizing the Bush administration's attempt to topple
Saddam.
Two weeks after the start of
hostilities, Putin's Russia has become the loudest
member in the anti-war camp, with the French and German
governments lowering the tone of their dissent. Is Putin
having second thoughts about his post-September 11
relationship with United States?
As is almost
always the case with Putin, the answer is "yes and no",
though everything coming out of the Kremlin over the
past two years has pointed to a determination to alter
the nature of Russia's relationship with the United
States, as well as with the rest of the world. However,
this commitment to repositioning Russia on the
geopolitical scene is not as unilaterally pro-US (or
even pro-Western) as it is often made out to be. Rather,
it is a pragmatic move that has brought Russia increased
prominence on the international arena in the short term
- and certainly helped validate its war in Chechnya in
the eyes of the world. Moreover, it is aimed at
improving Russia's position in the global order in the
near future. However, Russia's long-term interests lie,
by and large, elsewhere.
Putin's response to the
military campaign dubbed "Iraqi Freedom" has come from a
confluence of domestic and international political
imperatives. On the home front, Putin may be only
slightly ahead of Russian public opinion when it comes
to the "invasion and occupation" of Iraq. Some
Russia-watchers allege that the current Russian media
slant, which portrays the Americans in the worst of
colors while displaying Saddam as a victim of
aggression, comes direct from the presidential
administration. This may be true, but the man on the
street does not need to be spoon-fed anti-American
sentiment on this particular issue. In any case, most
Russians remain pro-Western in general, while being
overwhelming against this particular American foreign
policy decision.
At present, considering that
the start of the election season is only months away,
Putin clearly appreciates the public support he is
receiving as a result of his anti-war stance, and he has
no real reason to behave differently. Moreover, as he is
riding the crest of negative public reaction to George W
Bush's push into the Middle East, he remains poised to
shape domestic public opinion once the "correlation of
forces" on the ground in post-bellum Iraq becomes clear.
On the international front, Putin's criticism of
the war is most likely a stratagem for ensuring Russia's
role as a major player in the post-war settlement. Some
might see this interpretation of his political
maneuvering as odd. However, on closer consideration, an
observer can well conclude that one of Putin's biggest
gambits when it comes to expressing his displeasure with
"Iraqi Freedom" surrounds the future of the United
Nations. Putin is betting it will remain relevant,
despite rumors that the US has decided otherwise.
This is an adroit move. After two weeks of war,
the US is seen virtually everywhere as an uncompromising
aggressor and out of touch with world opinion. The
outcome of this war still favors the American goal of
totally remaking Iraq. But for winning the peace in a
new Iraq and Middle East, the UN remains the only
vehicle the Americans could use to recover from their
extraordinary loss of face.
This is where Putin
sees his opening. Clearly the international order is
being transformed, and he is aiming to determine
Russia's place in it. America's "coalition" attack on
Iraq allows Putin to try to redefine the meaning, terms
and conditions of the September 11 legacy. Up until the
start of the war, this legacy presented Russia with the
opportunity to turn its foreign policy westward. Now the
same legacy, with America's war against Iraq, is being
turned into an opportunity for Russia to further
solidify its place among Western nations.
Putin
has invested enormous political capital in aligning
Russia with the fate of the West, especially the US.
While this move has been greatly praised by President
George W Bush, the political dividends have been meager,
and Russia-US relations have not really taken off. Good
will and a (somewhat) common enemy are not nearly enough
to cement a relationship. The new relationship is rooted
in a common desire to fight international terrorism
(however this obscure term is defined), control access
to weapons of mass destruction and establish a
very-much-hoped-for energy relationship. This agenda is
important enough to enrich the bilateral relationship -
but it is hardly enough to make it permanent. And,
moreover, Russia's true economic interests lie not
across the Pacific, but to the west and southeast.
Putin, the pragmatic, patriotic KGB man, must
uphold his country's interests above all others. While
he might be criticized for not being more aggressive in
developing his country's democracy and civil society,
there is no doubt about his plans for Russia's economic
and trade future. Russia's economic future lies with
Europe and China. Of the $126.4 billion in gross
non-Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) foreign
trade in 2002, the US accounted for $7 billion,
basically equivalent to that of Holland and Belgium
($6.5 billion) and a clear laggard behind Germany ($4.6
billion) and China ($9.2 billion). The European Union
accounted for of 44 percent of Russian trade outside of
the CIS last year. Of the $19 billion of foreign direct
investment in Russia since 1996, American companies have
accounted for just $4 billion, as opposed to the
European Union's $7 billion.
Putin is so willing
to confront Bush's America because he believes Russia's
true economic and political interests lie elsewhere.
Russia may have little leverage with which to stop the
Bush administration from trying to refashion the
international political order, but it has every reason
to pursue its own economic interests. Russia's
bread-and-butter politics are solidly focused on
economic performance and not foreign policy concerns.
This is Putin's political prime directive.
September 11 has come to mean many different
things to many different people, and, for Russia, Bush's
understanding of the tragedy is becomingly obviously
different from Putin's. Putin's approach to the US
attempt to forcefully change the world will pay
dividends in the long term. Meaningful international
relationships are built on common interests and not on
heartfelt sympathy. Bush, or his successor, will surely
understand this logic and make the Russia-US partnership
more meaningful than a single emotive telephone call.
Ultimately, both sides of the partnership can
benefit from this approach. For Russia, the benefit is
economic growth that will enhance its security. For the
United States, a strong and reliable Russia in a part of
the world undergoing so much change might be the single
most important partnership America could have in the
future. This may be the final geopolitical legacy of
September 11.
Peter Lavelle is a
Moscow-based analyst and the author of the weekly
e-newsletter "Untimely Thoughts". He can be contacted
at plavelle@rol.ru.
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