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Russia left out in the
cold
By Pavel Ivanov
 It's all up to the
US, says North Korea
This
week the Kremlin has started experiencing some serious
and most unwelcome consequences of being the "informal"
leader of the anti-Iraq war coalition and having
convened a "summit of losers" (Russia, France and
Germany) in St Petersburg on April 11-12. First,
Washington quite clearly hinted that it might no longer
consider Russia as a member of the so-called G8 club;
then Russia found itself tossed overboard from the now
trilateral negotiations on the North Korea nuclear issue
to be launched in Beijing on April 23.
The
latter, as well-informed sources in Moscow report, was
considered by the Russian ruling elite as a painful slap
in the face. First of all, Moscow believed that as one
of the best foreign buddies of North Korea's Dear Leader
Kim Jong-il, Russia could count on an honorable place at
the negotiating table if Pyongyang finally agreed to
multilateral consultations. Moreover, it was keen on
playing a leading role in future wider multilateral
negotiations focusing on regional and global security
concerns over North Korea's violations of the
non-proliferation regime, and involving not just China,
Russia and Japan, but probably even Australia and the
European Union.
Well, Kim Jong-il finally has
changed his stance on the framework for consultations,
but Russia is out in the cold. Kim realized that there
was no way to force the United States to talk to him
tete-a-tete about a non-aggression pact; also, as
knowledgeable people in Pyongyang are whispering, he was
very much impressed by the success and especially the
swiftness of the US military operation in Iraq. So, as a
compromise, he decided that "trilateral" is almost the
same as "bilateral" and agreed to Beijing's
participation. But he completely forgot about his
Russian friend, President Vladimir Putin. Diplomatic
cunning and real-power calculations easily got the upper
hand over the pleasant recollections of travelling by
special train on the trans-Siberian railroad through
Russia and receiving purebred horses as little friendly
souvenirs.
Easily as unpleasant a surprise for
Putin is the fact that the White House also changed its
position and - instead of insisting on not just China,
but also Japan, Russia and South Korea at the table -
quickly agreed to hold "multilateral talks", but at this
stage only with the participation of China.
Unlike the contemporary "Kremlin dreamers" who
sit around waiting for someone to come along and finance
their Utopian plans to unite the Korean peninsula by
building a trans-Korean railroad connected to the
trans-Siberian line and modernization of North Korean
industries created with assistance of the former Soviet
Union, the Americans are realists and pragmatists.
The Bush administration knows very well that
because of its economic, military and political might at
present, China is the only important independent
political player in the Pacific. China is also the only
country in the world that renders real economic
assistance to the Pyongyang regime and, besides, has a
military treaty with North Korea.
Perhaps, if
this new negotiation situation had come about before the
Iraq crisis, President George W Bush would have used his
clout and influence and wangled an invitation for his
friend Vladimir, elevating Russia's status to that of
the great Pacific and Asian power it aspires to be. But
now, when just two weeks ago Moscow was accusing the US
of destabilizing the entire world situation with its
Iraq campaign, why bother? The clear signal from
Washington and humiliating message to the Russian
leadership is that from now on Washington will deal only
with real political players, not has-beens or
wannabes.
The blow delivered by Beijing to the
Kremlin's self-esteem is equally serious. How could a
partner, a friend with whom an essential part of the
current Russian political leadership was ready to create
a new military-political strategic axis, behave like
this? According to reliable information from multiple
sources in Tokyo and Seoul, in exchange for its help in
setting up a dialogue with Pyongyang, China demanded
that Russia, Japan and South Korea be removed from the
framework of consultations - and Washington quickly and
readily accepted. Unbelievably, the present Russian
leaders have still not realized that the last thing
China traditionally or at this point wants is to see
active Russian participation in real decision-making in
Asia. Or, for that matter, that China even less wants to
see Japan play a larger political role in the region.
Surprise, surprise!
Unlike Russia, Japan and
South Korea - after some hemming and hawing - have
accepted the now-decided framework of the North Korea
consultations without great reservations. They do not
have Russian-style political ambitions and great-power
dreams, but are seriously concerned about settling the
nuclear standoff situation on the Korean peninsula by
peaceful means and avoiding even the slightest
possibility of military confrontation in the Far East.
As for Russia, it seems that Moscow has
overplayed its hand, and now it is paying the price.
(©2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All rights
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