| |
Moscow clears way for pipeline to
China
By Michael Lelyveld
BOSTON - The Russian government seems at last to
have ended months of arguments and infighting over its
energy policies, clearing the way for new oil routes to
China and the United States.
The decisions
announced this week by Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov
signal a victory for privately-owned Russian oil
companies and their plans to invest billions of dollars
in new export outlets. As a result, Russia's monopolies
and state-owned companies appear to have suffered blows
on two fronts at once, boosting private investments in
the west and the east.
On Tuesday, Kasyanov told
Russian news agencies that the government had decided to
back a plan by the private producer Yukos to pipe oil
from eastern Siberia to China's petroleum center of
Daqing. The decision means the government will put off a
rival project for the Japanese market indefinitely,
despite intense bidding from Tokyo to pull the oil its
way.
ITAR-TASS quotes Kasyanov as saying, "We
have resources only for Daqing." Kasyanov said that a
3,800-kilometer line for Japan from the Irkutsk region
to the Far East port of Nakhodka could be built only
after more oil is found and the China market is served.
The defeat of the Japan plan marks the end of a
long tug-of-war for East Siberia's oil and a setback for
Russia's state-owned interests on several counts.
Although Moscow had pledged to build a 2,400 kilometer
line from Angarsk to China in 2001, the state pipeline
monopoly Transneft lobbied against it, arguing that
Russian interests would be better served by a longer
line to the Pacific coast at triple the cost.
The logic of the improbable US$5.2 billion
project was that the oil could reach many markets
instead of being captive to the whims of a single
Chinese buyer. Japan added to the allure by offering to
finance the whole thing. Transneft was also driven by
fears that a private line controlled by Yukos, the first
of its kind, would punch a hole in its monopoly over
Russian exports.
But the real force behind
Transneft's arguments may have been other interests,
including gas monopoly Gazprom and the state-owned oil
company Rosneft. Analysts said that both saw the
Nakhodka line as a giant wedge for promoting their
interests in the Far East. They were joined by at least
one private investor, the Tyumen Oil Company (TNK), in
calling the Pacific route "the most promising from the
viewpoint of the country," RBC News reported in
February.
Analysts suspected that Gazprom and
Rosneft were behind a series of recent challenges to
Yukos production licenses in the region, which have been
pursued by a Ministry of Natural Resources task force.
On the other side, the government had to deal
with the diplomatic damage of disappointing Beijing,
since only enough oil has been discovered for the
600,000 barrels a day it has promised to China - far
less than the 1 million barrels needed to justify
another line for Japan.
This week, Moscow also
made clear that it had taken a dim view of Japan's terms
for the loans, which included a Russian government
guarantee. A government source told Interfax that the
demand was "unacceptable". The reaction suggests that
the government refused to be liable for a project that
it saw as financially suspect, since it would have to
pay for the losses if the pipeline could not be filled.
A final factor may have been the announcement on
April 22 that Yukos would join with fifth-ranked Sibneft
in a $35 billion merger to create the world's
fourth-largest oil company. Kasyanov called it the new
"flagship" of the Russian industry in a sign that Moscow
now sees the country's interest in promoting private
enterprise and investment. That conclusion may have been
long overdue, since the growth of Russia's oil output
has outpaced its ability to export and state-owned
enterprises lack the funding to fix the problem.
That sense may have spilled over onto another
Yukos-backed plan for the Arctic port of Murmansk, which
has also been opposed by Transneft. Private companies,
including TNK, would build an ambitious pipeline and
terminal project costing up to $4.5 billion and aimed at
serving the European and US markets. The companies hope
to provide 10 percent of US imports.
Despite
Transneft's concern about opening another crack in its
monopoly power, Kasyanov confirmed this week that the
government has become more flexible about privately
financed export projects. Kasyanov said that "the state
can control the pipeline system not only as property",
RIA-Novosti reported. He added that the government might
look for "some or other way of regulation or payment".
On April 17, Energy Minister Igor Yusufov
suggested that the government would clear the way for
Murmansk by announcing it would launch a feasibility
study for the pipeline and port plan. This week,
Kasyanov went further by predicting the outcome, saying,
"I think the studies will confirm the advisability of
building the pipeline."
Speaking at an
International Energy Agency meeting in Paris, Yusufov
made clear that the government has no plans to abandon
its regulatory powers, but it may now see few benefits
for Russia in frustrating the growth of the private oil
industry.
Copyright (c) 2002, RFE/RL Inc.
Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave NW, Washington DC
20036
|
| |
|
|
 |
|
