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NATO's eastward push into
Eurasia
By Mark Berniker
The
future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
has been the subject of much speculation, but it is
becoming increasingly apparent that part of its
redefinition is a widening role in Eurasia. While
band-aids are being put on the splinters of the
US-European military alliance, the Bush administration
is supporting the ascension of some of the newly
independent Eurasian states into NATO. And now that the
war in Iraq is over, NATO appears to be trying to find
its new role, and focus is on its expansion eastward.
The US Senate on Thursday voted overwhelmingly
in favor of expanding NATO to include seven former
communist states in Eastern Europe. Six of the
applicants - Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Romania and Slovakia - supported the US-led war to
depose Saddam Hussein in Iraq. They and Slovenia were
approved with little debate.
The legislatures of
the other 18 NATO nations also must vote on the
applications. Most have yet to do so, but all are
expected to approve. The alliance says that the seven
new members should be inducted by May 2004.
NATO's spread into Eurasia comes against the
backdrop of a strained relationship with Russia, not to
mention fellow NATO allies France and Germany. But
diplomatic efforts are picking up speed and there is
news that President George W Bush and President Vladimir
Putin will meet in St Petersburg on June 1 for a summit.
Despite the public acrimony from Moscow regarding the
war in Iraq, there is every indication that both sides
are moving to patch up US-Russian relations. However,
that doesn't mean that Putin is excited about a widening
NATO presence in territories once part of the crumbled
Soviet empire.
One topic sure to be towards the
top of Putin's list with Bush in June is NATO's goals in
the newly independent states of the Caucasus and Central
Asia. Russia, China and Iran are among a number of
neighboring countries not terribly thrilled with the
ongoing expansion of NATO from Europe to Eastern Europe,
and deeper into Eurasia.
As part of its interest
in redefining itself, NATO has made several moves that
could lead to widening military alliances with the
countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia. NATO
secretary general George Robertson will travel to
Georgia and Armenia on May 14-15, which could be a
prelude to the two Caucasian states joining the eastward
moving military alliance.
And American interests
in the region are being advanced by Bruce Jackson,
chairman of the nongovernmental US-NATO Committee, who
has met with a number of top officials in Armenia,
Georgia and Azerbaijan. Jackson has said it is possible
some, or all of these three countries, could be extended
membership to NATO in the future. But all three
countries have also been widely criticized by human
rights observers, and analysts question the level of
democratization and pluralism in the Caucasus. But
NATO's interest is strategic, and there is no question
of the value for the US to have access to military bases
on the periphery of the Middle East and Central Asia as
part of the Bush administration's ongoing "war on
terrorism".
On May 5, a group of NATO experts
were in Georgia as part of the military alliance's
review of Georgia's official application to join NATO.
NATO could make a decision on Georgia's application in
late 2003, or perhaps early 2004. However, on Thursday
it was reported that Georgian Deputy Defense Minister
Gela Bezhuashvili said that NATO military experts were
concerned that a lack of funding was hindering reforms
in the Georgian armed forces as required for admission
to NATO.
On the other side of Georgia's border,
NATO also has regional military exercises planned for
Armenia in May as part of a plan being called
"Cooperative Best Effort 2003". The exercises will
involve military units from 17 different countries over
a 10-day period as part of NATO's "Partnership for
Peace" program. And there is a new lobby group in
Washington created to advance the NATO-Georgian
alliance, called the Georgia-Caucasus Council of the
United States which it says is "working to bolster the
Georgian democracy and economy through strengthened ties
to the US and inclusion in NATO".
Azerbaijan has
also said that it hopes to join NATO in the near future.
Like Georgia and Armenia, Azerbaijan has been taking the
steps to comply with NATO requirements for membership in
its alliance. With these developments, it seems possible
that several or all of the Caucasian states could be
extended formal invitations to NATO at its 2004 summit.
But there are serious questions whether any of these
countries have come close to living up to the
international community's expectations for human rights
and domestic democratization. For example, the Council
of Europe has called Armenia the aggressor in the
ongoing dispute in Nagorno-Karabakh with the Azeris.
NATO's growing interests doesn't appear to stop
in the Caucasus as the military alliance is stepping up
activities in Central Asia. It also seems that NATO in
its redefinition process is not limiting the scope of
its activities, moving from strictly military affairs
into crisis assistance and collective security
operations. NATO recently participated in natural
disaster relief programs, along with the United Nations,
as part of "Ferghana 2003" in NATO's "Partnership for
Peace" program and NATO's Disaster Response Unit. NATO
also provided some assistance in the aftermath of the
recent earthquakes that shook areas near the Kyrgyzstan,
and its border with China.
If there were any
questions whether the US intends on using NATO as an arm
of its foreign political and economic policy, look no
further than a recent speech by one of US Secretary of
State Colin Powell's chief lieutenants. Mark Grossman,
deputy secretary for political issues at the US State
Department, recently stated that "all newly established
democracies from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea along
with the old ones should have the same safety situation
and freedom and a possibility for integration into
European institutions".
As NATO looks east, the
leaders of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan held a two-day security
meeting in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe in late April.
These six countries are signatories to the Collective
Security Treaty Organization, one could say Putin's
attempt at cobbling together a military alliance out of
the former Soviet states in the face of NATO's
expansion. Putin clearly tried to put his best foot
forward to breathe life into an alliance, which has yet
to do much. The alliance is now looking to open military
bases and step up border security activities. The group
set a January 1, 2004 deadline for establishing a rapid
reaction force in Central Asia, which is expected to
include 6,000 troops and at least two dozen warplanes
deployed at Kant air base in Kyrgyzstan. Kyrgyzstan is
also the only country in the world to hold joint
military exercises with the Chinese.
Part of
what is making Russia and China edgy is the growing role
of NATO near and along its borders. NATO is being asked
to provide support to the International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. NATO is filling
a vacuum as the continual search to find another country
to lead the mission became problematic. Khanabad in
Uzbekistan is expected to be the staging post for NATO's
increased operations in post-war Afghanistan as it gets
ready to take over ISAF in August. Robertson will visit
Uzbekistan from July 7 to 11.
And one can expect
a series of visits by top NATO officials to Eurasia in
the coming months as the alliance moves aggressively to
expand its aegis. The policy is clear: the US wants to
extend its influence deeper into Central Asia through
NATO, while putting itself in a position to curb
Russian, Chinese and Iranian political interests in the
region.
Mark Berniker is a freelance
journalist specializing in Eurasian political and
economic affairs.
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