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Iran muddies Afghanistan's
waters
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With the ground situation in
Afghanistan expected to deteriorate even further in the
coming weeks, Pakistan will once again serve as a back
yard for US military and diplomatic initiatives to
contain the spreading guerrilla warfare.
At the
same time, Iran, which is steadily being pushed against
the wall by the United States, still has a few cards
left to play in Afghanistan, as well as in Iraq, in an
attempt to tie down harassed US forces further in those
countries and divert attention from itself.
Very
much as in Iraq, there are clear indications that with
the help of more than a dozen important Hezb-i-Islami
leaders based in Tehran, Iran has established a supply
line for the resistance movement in Afghanistan to
consolidate in areas where it has yet to establish
itself fully. The Hezb-i-Islami, led by famed Afghan
warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, is the most organized
resistance force in Afghanistan. Hekmatyar recently
returned to Afghanistan after several years of exile in
Iran.
Sources close to the resistance say that
US and allied forces in Afghanistan now face a two-fold
danger. First, an ever-better-organized, -equipped and
-trained resistance movement will intensify its
guerrilla attacks, especially in the rugged mountains
and scorching heat of Jalalabad and Kandahar. The ranks
are being swelled by Chechen and Uzbek volunteers, and
some sources even say that suicide bombers are included
in their ranks. Second, the Afghan national army, on
which the United States relies to a large extent, and
the administration in Kabul are known to include a
number of sympathizers of the Hezb-I-Islami who could
turn at any time.
In response, the US and allied
forces - in coordination with Pakistani troops along the
border areas - will conduct massive operations in
Jalalabad, Kandahar, Zabal, Farah, Logar, Gazni, Khost,
Paktia, Paktika and Kunhar. These are likely to start
with aerial bombardments, followed by sweeping military
action to isolate guerrilla units.
The decision
for these operations follows the breakdown of tentative
talks among the United States, Pakistan and the Taliban.
A first contact was dismissed out of hand by the Taliban
because the go-between was former Taliban leader Mullah
Ghous, who had been expelled from the hierarchy when the
Taliban were still in power in Kabul. Another round of
talks with a more acceptable intermediary was held in
Quetta, Pakistan, but they failed to make any
headway.
In a significant move, the Pakistani
government on Thursday sent three infantry units to the
Mohmand area to guard a 60-kilometer stretch of border
with Afghanistan's Kunar and Nangarhar provinces. "The
regular army will join the paramilitary forces in the
area and take the frontline position on the border," an
official said. A similar deployment is in the cards
along the Chaman border in the next few days.
The
emerging situation is beginning to resemble that faced
by the Soviets in their decade of occupation starting in
1979. Constant harassment and sniping guerrilla tactics
drained the resources and the resolve of the Red Army as
it was never able to engage the enemy in decisive
battles.
This scenario suits Iran, and it will
be no coincidence if western Afghanistan, which borders
Iran, sees an increase in unrest from its relative calm
in comparison with other parts of the country - notably,
the Sheen Dand air base could become a target. The
Hezb-i-Islami has a strong presence in the west, and it
has maintained contact with the legendary Afghan
mujahideen commander and current governor of Herat,
Ismail Khan. Ismail Khan recently ruled out the
deployment of international forces in his province.
Instead, the Iranian border areas could serve as a back
yard for the resistance movement.
This growing
lawlessness and warlordism in Afghanistan is once again
giving rise to the very circumstances that led to the
Taliban taking power in the country in 1996. If nothing
else, the Taliban restored an iron discipline to the
country during their rule.
And the re-emergence
of the Taliban movement suits some elements in Pakistan,
who hanker after the days when Pakistan, through its
support of the Taliban, wielded much influence in
Afghanistan - for example, the former director general
of the Inter-Service Intelligence, Lieutenant-General
Mehmood Ahmed. Mehmood was chosen by Pakistani President
General Pervez Musharraf to talk the Taliban into a
peaceful solution to the Afghan situation after
September 11, 2001, when Pakistan, under US pressure,
renounced its support of the Taliban. Instead, though,
Mehmood prepared the Taliban to fight the United States.
He was removed from his post when the US attacked
Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, and placed under house
arrest. He has now been released, and serves as managing
director of Fauji Fertilizer (a production unit owned by
the Pakistani army).
Such hawkish elements in
the army and among Pakistan's militant groups are just
waiting to make Afghanistan their playground once
again.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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