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Russia-China-India: An axis of
denials
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - As the international situation is
undergoing a major shift since the fall of Saddam
Hussein's regime, Moscow may feel a necessity to offset
repercussions of its flawed policies on Iraq.
Subsequently, there have been renewed calls for a
Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle, a potential alliance
of three nuclear-armed countries of some 2.5 billion
people, that theoretically would be able to balance US
power in coming years.
There have been a number
of fresh signs to substantiate axis talk.
"Russia
will continue interaction with its partners in [the]
Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle," Foreign Minister
Igor Ivanov stated at an Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) meeting last month. "This interaction is
important for the international stability in general,"
he was quoted by the official Russian Information Agency
(RIA) as saying on June 18. "The dialogue between
Moscow, Beijing and New Delhi will continue," said
Ivanov, adding that the three nations have shared
interest in "multipolar and just world".
Also at
the ASEAN meeting in Phnom Penh last month, Russia,
China and India reportedly gave "signals" that they
would sign up to the grouping's Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation (TAC), a sort of non-aggression pact among
the 10 ASEAN member states. (Beijing decided to ratify
the treaty last weekend; see South China Sea: Pact won't calm
waters, July 2.)
In the meantime, Moscow has
praised Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's
trip China as significant for global stability. Russian
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov termed Vajpayee's China
visit as "important" and noted that Moscow hailed "more
active dialogue" between Beijing and New Delhi.
In the wake of Vajpayee's China trip, the
Chinese Foreign Ministry denied that there was any move
to form a China-India-Russia strategic alliance, only
conceding that the three countries have been sharing
similar views on some international issues. Yet despite
this and earlier denials, the axis talk seems due to
continue for some time to come.
For instance,
there is a growing arms-sale relationship between Russia
and the two Asian countries. The trade provides Moscow
with billions of much-needed dollars and important
arms-export markets, while Beijing and New Delhi get
sophisticated armaments ranging from combat aircraft to
submarines.
Russia and India recently held their
first joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, when a
large task force of Russian surface ships and nuclear
attack submarines simulated attacks on aircraft-carrier
groups. The naval exercise was coordinated with a
mission by long-range bombers. On May 13, several
Russian strategic bombers - Tu-95 Bears and Tu-160
Blackjacks - flew from a base in Central Russia to the
Indian Ocean to simulate an attack by long-range cruise
missiles.
A "strategic triangle" among Russia,
India and China was first suggested by then Russian
premier Yevgeny Primakov four years ago. Yet the idea
failed to serve its immediate purpose of preventing the
US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization air strikes
against former Yugoslavia, a concept dismissed by
Beijing, while New Delhi remained non-committal. Last
November, New Delhi denied that India, Russia and China
were forming a separate axis, adding that the talks
among the three countries in New York the previous
September had been informal and were not directed
against the United States or any other country.
However, in December Russian President Vladimir
Putin traveled to China and India, and high-level
rhetoric about the need for greater cooperation also
included thinly veiled anti-Western pronouncements and
calls for a "multipolar world", Moscow's mantra for
counterbalancing America's global dominance. Hence
speculation resurfaced about the three countries ganging
up to form the "axis" due to a perceived sense among all
three that US power must somehow be checked.
So
far, the "strategic triangle" concept is yet to be
formally coined.
However, Russia, China and India
are understood to have a number of converging interests
that could add substance to axis talk. All three were
disturbed by the Iraq war and protested against what
they viewed as a rejection of the rules of the
international game. They still back the primacy of the
United Nations Security Council in solving crises, and
support the principle of non-intervention in internal
affairs of sovereign states. Apart from shared concerns
of US dominance, the three have other common interests
and mutually reinforcing needs. All three are weary of
militant Islamic groups, and want stability in Central
Eurasia.
On the other hand, the idea that now
the Eastern axis may be the only answer to US arrogance
has been dismissed as a mere by-product of the Cold
War-era mindset. It has been also argued that the
trilateral axis could hardly be feasible because the
Indian nuclear and missile program is not so much aimed
at Pakistan, being in fact deterrence against Chinese
nuclear warheads. The would-be triangle is also seen as
implausible because India and China also happen to be
competing economies.
There have been warnings
that a well-armed and strong China may one day not just
make Russia its junior partner, but even pose a threat
to Russia's resource-rich Far East. Incidentally, Moscow
seems to be taking some measures of precaution. In late
August through early September, Russia is due to hold
major war games in the Far East. This Tuesday, Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov announced that some 20,000
military and 10,000 civilian personnel, 68 naval
vessels, and 50 planes and helicopters are due to take
part in the maneuvers. According to Ivanov, although the
exercises are supposed to prepare fighting "illegal
migration, bio-terrorism" and "protecting the country's
energy resources", nevertheless Russian strategic
bombers may join these war games.
Nonetheless,
Russia and China have already solved their border
disputes, while China and India are still divided by a
mere chunk of barren terrain and grant of asylum to the
Dalai Lama and a few thousand followers.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(SCO) can provide a convenient forum for the trilateral
axis. Now the SCO includes China, Russia, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and India has
been touted as a potential candidate. India's joining in
could raise the SCO's significance, Putin stated in
December. Moreover, in May Chinese President Hu Jintao's
first tour abroad as leader of the world's most populous
nation involved Russia and the SCO.
There is a
growing economic dimension in the partnership between
Russia and China. During Hu's visit, a 25-year
oil-supply deal was signed between Russia's Yukos and
China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). That accord calls
for a 2,400-kilometer pipeline from eastern Siberia to
the northern Chinese city of Daqing that will carry 20
million tonnes of crude per year for the first five
years once construction is completed. The deal is
estimated to be worth some US$150 billion over time and
will see Russia pump up to 30 million tons of crude to
China by 2010.
Late last month, China and Russia
struck an unprecedented deal jointly to survey oil and
natural-gas resources in their border areas. The
agreement was signed by officials from China's
northeastern province of Heilongjiang and the Primorie
region of Russia. The new geological survey will focus
on three trans-border basins: the Muhe-Ushumun, the
Sunwu-Zeysko Bureinskaya and the Sanjiang-Amur. A
preliminary survey has reportedly detected an oil and
gas field with a maximum reserve of 80 million tons of
crude.
In May, Hu not only put his signature on
a strategic energy pact with Putin, but also attended
the SCO summit. The SCO presidents gathered in the
Kremlin and agreed to have a secretariat in Beijing and
a Regional Anti-Terrorist Force in the Kyrgyz capital
Bishkek from 2004 on. One sign of the SCO's
transformation is a plan to hold joint anti-terrorism
exercises this year in Kazakhstan involving the armed
forces of all six members.
The group has drafted
the Shanghai anti-terror convention and urged the United
Nations to play a major global role. Presumably, the SCO
had been intended to band together Russia, China and
Central Asian nations in order to contest America's
growing influence in Central Eurasia. At least, Hu's
speeches during his trip to Moscow included references
to a "multipolar world".
Given the polarizing
effect of Iraq, some sort of strategic unity among
Russia, China and India is not beyond the realm of
feasibility. Therefore the nyet bu nahi triangle
- formal, informal or in the SCO disguise - may finally
get some substance. After all, mutual interests, the
greatest of all purposes, may become the cement of this
alliance.
There is, thus, a motivation in all
three capitals to cooperate on strategic, security and
economic issues. But aside from calls for a "multipolar
world", the idea of an axis seemingly is yet to evolve
into a clear-cut strategy.
The would-be
"strategic triangle" is still short of an implementation
system, prerequisite to ensuring future success of any
stratagem. In the meantime, none of the troika wants to
give the impression that they are "ganging up together"
against the sole superpower. Hence the axis talk is
likely to remain symbolic, but is still a way of
delivering a message.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times
Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com
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