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Uzbekistan and US: Strange
bedfellows
By Jonathan Feiser
Winston Churchill once observed, "In war it is
not always possible to have everything go exactly as one
likes. In working with allies, it sometimes happens they
develop opinions of their own." Now, in the modern "war
on terror", this same visionary paradigm continues to
propagate itself throughout every facet of US diplomacy
and security policy.
Since September 11, 2001,
several Central Asia regimes have demonstrated both
cause and support for the operational objectives of US
determination. In the meantime, however, the mere
existence of this US footprint in Central Asia has
continued to attract the attention and security concerns
of both Russia and, to a lesser degree, China. The
former preponderance of Russia's modern "near abroad"
remains to this day, just as much a geopolitical factor
as a psychological one. In terms of both military power
and ethnic majority, Uzbekistan exists both as a
strategic hub for US forces and as a much-desired ally
envisaged by Russia. There nevertheless exists inherent
weakness within this deceivingly perfect-looking
picture. Uzbek President Islam Karimov runs a one-man
government routinely bashed for a variety of
human-rights and local border violations that have
remained a continual bane of the relationship between
his regime and the United States.
One major
source of the state's perpetual decay remains housed
within the economy. The very nature of Uzbekistan's
shadow economy acts as an antithesis to any form of
state-building mechanisms. In turn, the essential middle
class and privatization management designed to
facilitate democratization remains morbidly lifeless.
Nonetheless, with the "war on terror" in full pulse,
Karimov currently enjoys a different kind of business
that warrants international aid from the United States.
The source of this reality is based upon a vast tract of
geopolitical concerns that revolve around the regional
security presence of US military forces and Karimov's
battle with Islamic militants.
On the domestic
level, a cycle of violence continues to resonate between
blacklisted fundamentalist groups and the state. The
anti-state aspects of this lethal tennis match include
local and regional efforts at commerce and the continual
demise of regime legitimacy. In short, the escalation of
violence not only continues to plague the state of
Uzbekistan and its neighbors, but also may increasingly
attract and incubate such threats to regionally based US
forces and the policies they represent.
For
Uzbekistan, however, the cost benefit/analysis of its
geopolitical concerns and future alignment of national
security are currently more critical than the
human-rights balance sheet. US military forces continue
to operate from Uzbekistan's Khanabad Air Base, which
provides strategic entry corridors that support ongoing
security operations in Afghanistan and the Middle East.
Nonetheless, the regional security threat now
facing US forces in Uzbekistan may soon eclipse in
seriousness the tension felt between the Karimov regime
and its broadly defined nemesis of religious
fundamentalism. On the local level, security for US
resources and personnel continues to draw concerns from
US planners and engineers; for example, the compensatory
measures to meet such needs while balancing the delicate
social and domestic apparatus necessary for maintaining
and protecting military emplacement in foreign
countries. Such a balance depends a great deal on
mission security, which remains a top issue of
contention between local residents and the military
forces.
Yet a continued effort by the
administration of US President George W Bush to maintain
its nation-building efforts within Iraq will require the
regional support that bases in Central Asia provide.
This relationship is vital regardless of how peripheral
it may appear to critics.
The long-term
implications to the relationship between the United
States and Karimov, however, may face a final variable
that may, from the inside out, undermine the mission in
Uzbekistan: the question of leadership succession. The
keystone to cooperation with Uzbekistan is inherently
linked to the will and life of Islam Karimov. Naturally,
it is in his strategic interests that the US continue
not only its military detachments in Uzbekistan, but
also continue the subsidization and direct financial
support that buttress United States Agency for
International Development (USAID) humanitarian programs
as well as contributions by the US Trade and Development
Agency.
The United States and Uzbekistan will
remain loyal allies with sure signs of deepening
investments as the war on terrorism continues. However,
with all the links that make this relationship
necessary, the philosophical contraries that emanate
from Karimov's rule of law will have significant
consequences to the national interests of the
US.
Thus, despite Uzbekistan's "efforts to
reform", Karimov remains linked to a governing style
that entails an autocratic rule and a rubber-stamp
parliament. With these realities buttressed by a
crippled economy and the absence of an undisputed
successor, the future seems not only a risky place, but
a world where regional US policy and the death of one
man may share the same destiny.
Published
with permission of the Power and Interest News Report,
an analysis-based publication that seeks to provide
insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
interest around the globe. All comments should be
directed to content@pinr.com
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