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Bin Laden hunt
intensifies
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - While the battle lines between the
US-led forces in Afghanistan and the growing resistance
movement have been clearly drawn for some time, the
strategy adopted by the two sides is constantly being
refined.
On the one hand, the resistance, for
the first time, has placed its overall strategy directly
in the hands of top Taliban commanders, while on the
other side the Pakistani armed forces have in effect
been sidelined as the United States intensifies its
efforts to catch al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden ahead
of the second anniversary of the terror attacks on the
US on September 11, 2001.
The 'Catch Osama'
operation
Information collected by Asia Times
Online from various sources strongly suggests that bin
Laden is alive and under the protection of a strong
group. Wherever he is, though, it is almost certain that
he is not in Afghanistan.
Comments a Pakistani
source who was familiar with the Taliban's
decision-making during the US invasion of Afghanistan,
"Even before the Taliban retreated from Kabul, al-Qaeda
had an escape order for its operators. A blueprint was
developed for escape routes situated on the
Afghan-Iranian border, the Pakistan-Afghan border and
the Afghan border areas which lead to the Central Asian
republics."
After the Taliban retreated from
Kabul and then their southern stronghold of Kandahar,
the general situation in the country became such that
even the Taliban leadership who were Afghans were not
safe - the US was paying US dollars to informants to
ensure this. As a result, the governor of Jalalabad,
Maulvi Abdul Kabeer, and ministers such as Maulana
Jalaluddin Haqqani were forced to take refuge in the
Pakistani tribal areas, while other Taliban leaders took
advantage of the escape routes.
Afghanistan was
simply too dangerous for al-Qaeda fighters, let alone
bin Laden, although there have been unconfirmed reports
that he spent a brief time in the Kunhar Valley. Last
year he was tracked near the Pak-Afghan-Iranian border
in Pakistan's southern province of Balochistan.
In recent days tribal sources in Miran Shah, in
the tribal belt along the southern end of Pakistan's
North-West Frontier Province, a semi-autonomous region
along the Afghan border, have confirmed the presence of
scores of US and supporting Pakistani troops in the
district. The sources said that unlike in the past, the
tribal leaders were not informed in advance about the
operation.
And contacts in Pakistani strategic
quarters have confirmed that the operation is being
conducted to catch bin Laden. "It has been planned on
the push of the US authorities," a senior official
confided to this correspondent.
Replying to a
query as to why the United States thinks it will be
successful this time when it has failed for two years to
locate bin Laden, the source maintained that contrary to
past practices, in the current operation the Pakistani
army's role has been reduced to that of guarding the US
forces. "The Pakistani armed forces are simply
subordinate in the operation, whose command is in the
hands of the US operations commander."
Previously, US authorities have coordinated
closely with their Pakistani counterparts. But in the
past few months this collaboration has been scaled back
as the US has developed its own networks. Having in the
past nurtured and supported the Taliban, many in
Pakistan's army and the Inter-Services Intelligence
(ISI) still have strong sympathies for the Taliban.
In the recent arrest of an al-Qaeda cell in
Karachi, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)
forged direct links with the Pakistani police, who are
devoid of any extremist ideology or links with the
Pakistani armed forces or the ISI. Many al-Qaeda
operatives were arrested after being pointed out by
police officers who were directly in touch with the FBI.
Those officers were subsequently sent on forced leave or
sidelined but, on strong recommendations by US
authorities, they were reinstated.
It is now
apparent that a similar strategy has now been adopted in
the Pakistani tribal belt, where US operators have
developed their own networks in the local
administration, as well as among the tribals, and the
situation is very much out of the hands of those in the
Pakistani establishment who have a soft spot for the
militants opposing the United States.
Ground
situation in Afghanistan
The past three weeks of
guerrilla fighting suggest the following:
The local administrations in southeastern
Afghanistan have in essence given up in favor of the
Taliban, and the fighting taking place there now is
between the Afghan militia sent from Kandahar and Kabul
and US forces against Taliban outfits.
Taliban guerrillas mostly avoid seize and search
operations and aerial bombardment by hiding in the
mountains and then melting into the general population.
They then re-emerge when they want to make another raid,
showing that they have almost complete support among the
masses, a fact that has been admitted by the governor of
Zabul, where some of the heaviest clashes have taken
place recently.
Previously, the Taliban fought under the direction
of second- or third-tier commanders; now they have been
replaced by top-level commanders.
Reports
filtering from recent guerrilla operations in southern
and southeastern Afghanistan indicate that Taliban
leader Mullah Omar has personally commanded troops. In
Khost and Paktia, meanwhile, where US troops have
sustained few casualties but are still under attack,
legendary Afghan commander Maulana Jalaluddin Haqqani
has taken over central command, with Saifullah Mansoor
and others now fighting under him.
Haqqani is
among the most respected Afghan guerrilla leaders. He
fought throughout the resistance against the Soviets in
the 1980s, and under his command the mujahideen defeated
the Afghan communist forces in Khost, which became the
first big city to fall from the Soviets. When the
Taliban emerged as a force to be reckoned with in the
mid-1990s, Haqqani extended his unconditional support to
the new militia and was rewarded with a ministerial
position when they came into power in 1996, with control
of border areas.
But despite recent Taliban
successes in defeating local administrations, some
Pakistani experts still have reservations about the
resistance movement. According to them, it is too
scattered. "The Afghan resistance against the former
USSR was organized by the US Central Intelligence Agency
and the ISI. Each and every resistance activity was very
well coordinated by these officials. A present, it is
not always well coordinated. As a result, US casualties
in Afghanistan have remained far less than expectations.
To date, the resistance movement only creates chaos and
anarchy, nothing more, nothing less."
Maybe,
though, with the latest Taliban initiatives, out of this
chaos will come some form of order, albeit an order that
will significantly raise the stakes in the country,
regardless of whether or not Osama bin Laden is tracked
down.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd.
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