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Kazakhs: Let's talk about
succession
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW - The eldest daughter of Kazakh President
Nursultan Nazarbayev has told the Russian media that her
father's opponents "could relax" for the next decade.
However, she has become increasingly high-profile in
terms of Kazakh domestic politics, setting off rumors
that Nazarbayev is mulling a dynastic transition of
power. And against the backdrop of a graft probe in the
United States, dynastic succession would provide some
extra safety for Nazarbayev and members of his clan.
Notably, Dariga Nazarbaeva, the woman in
question, has taken over a new political movement called
Asar, which in Kazakh means "all together". In an
address in the Aktyubinsk region of Kazakhstan on
September 12, Dariga came up with a clearly populist
statement, arguing that Asar would focus on helping "he
most needy and poor people".
Although Asar is
now a mere "public association", Dariga indicated that
the movement should become a political party. The
movement's leadership, which includes her father-in-law
Mukhtar Aliyev, is working on developing a party
program, Dariga was quoted as saying on Kazakh state
television on September 12. Presumably, Asar is due to
become the main pro-president political movement.
Dariga also heads Khabar, a predominant media
group. Her new role as the head of Asar is seen as a
preparation for the upcoming parliamentary elections in
2004. It has been speculated that Dariga could
eventually be appointed as senate chairman, which under
the Kazakh constitution is the first in the succession
line should Nazarbayev resign, die or otherwise be
incapable of carrying out his duties as head of state.
However, Dariga has dismissed reports that she
could run in the 2006 presidential election. "Nursultan
Nazarbayev's rivals can relax for the next 10 years,"
she was quoted as saying by the Russian daily
Nezavisimaya Gazeta on September 12. However, there is
also talk of Dariga becoming a presidential candidate in
2013.
Dariga, a mother of three, became a
grandmother last month. She heads Kazakhstan's official
journalists' union. She is also an amateur opera singer,
and she recently performed at Moscow's famous Bolshoi
Theater.
Rumors of dynastic succession from
Nursultan to Dariga have long circulated in Kazakhstan.
However, in 2001, Dariga's husband, Rakhat Aliyev,
allegedly sought too much economic and political power
for himself and incurred the president's displeasure.
Subsequently, Aliyev was sent to a sort of honorary
exile, and he now serves as Kazakhstan's ambassador to
Austria.
However, in recent months talk of
succession has gained new momentum, being somewhat
fueled by an ongoing criminal investigation in New York
into alleged kickbacks to top Kazakh officials as part
of oil deals between the government and Western oil
majors.
In June, a former US oil executive, J
Bryan Williams, pleaded guilty to charges of tax evasion
and conspiracy to defraud the US government in
connection with a deal to develop Kazakhstan's energy
sector. Williams, a lawyer, aided Mobil's oil operations
in Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union,
including Kazakhstan. The guilty plea of Williams is
helping to refocus attention on a bribery case involving
unnamed Kazakh officials and merchant banker James
Giffen.
Williams pleaded guilty June 12 in a US
district court in New York to hiding more than US$7
million in taxable income, including a $2 million
payment made in 1996 by "people, organizations or
governments" with whom he was doing business on behalf
of what was at the time known as Mobil Oil Corp. Federal
prosecutors estimated that Williams failed to pay more
than $3.5 million in taxes, according to a transcript of
the June 12 court proceedings.
According to
court documents, Williams opened two bank accounts in
1993 in the name of a corporation, Alqi Holdings Ltd.
Between 1993 and 2000, more than $7 million was
deposited in the two accounts, which earned $800,000 in
income, court documents show.
On September 18,
Williams was sentenced to 46 months in prison for
evading taxes on $7 million in secret payments,
including a kickback prosecutors said he got for helping
Mobil buy a share of a Kazakhstan oilfield. Mobil, which
was acquired by Exxon in 1999 to form ExxonMobil, paid
$1.05 billion in 1996 for a stake in the Tengiz field.
Williams, who resigned from the company now
known as ExxonMobil in 1999, was indicted on April 3, a
few days after prosecutors indicted Giffen, a merchant
banker who brokered the Tengiz oil deals for Kazakhstan
in 1996.
Giffen's trial at the US Federal Court,
Southern District of New York, is tentatively scheduled
to begin in January. Giffen has maintained his innocence
since his arrest on March 30.
Giffen, who is
chairman of the New York-based Mercator Corp, was
arraigned on March 31 on two counts of violating the
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. According to the
indictment, Giffen allegedly funneled $78 million in
fees from a deal between Mobil Oil Corp and the Kazakh
government to two bank accounts controlled by top Kazakh
officials. The indictment does not name the Kazakh
leaders.
The Giffen indictment is part of a
wider US corruption probe that is examining the dealings
of oil conglomerates in Kazakhstan. Giffen reportedly
served as an adviser to Nazarbayev, and had close ties
with Kazakh Oil Minister Nurlan Balgymbayev.
Therefore, Nazarbayev is now understood to be
seeking to position his daughter as his successor,
allowing him the option of quickly departing office if
developments in the graft probe made it expedient to do
so. Dynastic succession would also secure life-long
immunity from prosecution for Nazarbayev.
In the
Nezavisimaya Gazeta article, Dariga played down the
corruption scandal, known as Kazakhgate, denying that
any wrongdoing had occurred. At the same time, she made
it clear that the Asar movement would combat the main
opposition movement, the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan
(DCK).
The DCK has been keen to use "Kazakhgate"
to lash out at Nazarbayev and his supporters.
Subsequently, several prominent critics of the
president, including DCK leaders and opposition
journalist Sergei Duvanov, have been jailed on what
their supporters claim are politically motivated
charges.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co,
Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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