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Russia revels in its newfound
influence
By Matthew Riemer
Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently
trying to navigate the Russian Federation in such a way
so that his country's weaknesses can be best shielded,
while making the most of the issues that have the
greatest strategic value on the global stage. How Putin
balances Moscow's relationship with the United States
with those of the group of Eurasian powers with whom he
also deals is the key to Russia's future alignment and
well-being in a world of shifting geopolitical
alliances.
During his recent visit to Camp David
to essentially discuss the Middle East with US President
George W Bush, Putin said, "Our talks today have once
again confirmed that our relations are based on a clear
vision and a clear understanding of special
responsibility of Russia and the United States for
ensuring international security and strengthening
strategic stability."
But the specifics of this
assertion of mutuality between the two countries have
always been in question and they continue to be, even
after this most recent visit; quite simply, the shared
vision and understanding between the two leaders remains
largely rhetorical. Putin also equalized the US and his
somewhat ailing country on the world stage - a situation
that couldn't be further from the truth when comparing
the two countries attributes on any level. However, it
may be true that at the present moment Moscow has more
leverage than it did in a pre-September 11 context. The
extent to which the Bush administration knows or even
admits this, and how it affects their policies is
unclear.
However, Russia is also facing
difficult times. In more ways than one - economically,
socially, territorially - Russia is contracting while
the US and many of its other natural rivals, such as
China, are expanding. The disintegration of the Soviet
Union represented an initial territorial contraction,
which is now echoed in the Chechen conflict: the
Chechens attempting to gain independence in the wake of
the former republics to the south - Georgia, Armenia,
Azerbaijan - becoming sovereign. Birth rates have also
steadily fallen over the past decade and the Russian
population is predicted to decrease over the next
several decades; life expectancy is declining as well.
Yet despite these alarming social trends, Moscow still
has a few wild cards up its diplomatic sleeve that give
it more clout than it seems to have on paper in dealing
with the US.
Iran
Russia has a unique
relationship with Iran in that Moscow holds the power to
make Iran a fully nuclear-armed state through its
ability to provide the Iranian leadership with all the
necessary nuclear training and technology needed to
produce nuclear weapons. This runs directly counter to
Washington's Iran policy, which is one of careful
scrutiny and distrust. Thus, the Iran issue is a point
of major contention between the US and Russia,
especially so now as Bush has been stepping up
rhetorical pressure on Iran. This said, Putin still
refuses to be clear on just how far Russia is willing to
go to prevent Iran from taking the initiative and
becoming a nuclear power and, therefore, a further
empowered local player in a key regional area.
However, Bush seemed satisfied with Putin's
assurances that Moscow would put the needed pressure on
Iran to halt any ambitions per the development of
nuclear weaponry, even though Putin's words were
typically less than emphatic: "We discussed in detail
the situation around nuclear programs of Iran and North
Korea. It is our conviction that we shall give a clear
but respectful signal to Iran about the necessity to
continue and expand its cooperation with
IAEA[International Atomic Energy Agency]."
But
this is really Putin putting on a great show: he has no
desire to visibly and clearly commit to some kind of
hard line Iran policy. When it comes to the nuclear
issue, it is Moscow's intention and in Russia's
interests to keep the extent to which Russia interacts
with Iran a matter of ambiguity and, therefore, of
leverage for Moscow. As long as Iran has the potential
of becoming a nuclear power, Washington is beholden to
Moscow because of the latter's perceived ability to sway
sentiment in Tehran and because of the fact that Iran's
nuclear fate more or less rests with Moscow's desires.
If Putin were to aggressively help the US eliminate any
possibility whatsoever of a nuclear-armed Iran, Russia
would lose great bargaining power with the US in matters
of Eurasian regional security; from Washington's
perspective, it would be more than happy to remove that
key bargaining chip from Putin's hand.
Oil
Russia is one of the leading
producers and exporters of oil, and this fact will
inevitably become a greater factor in how Russia is
geopolitically handled by the global community. Indeed,
the US just began importing Russian oil for the first
time. In the past, Russia's oil production -
percentage-wise less than it is now - was less
influential, as the Persian Gulf states and Africa, as
well as Venezuela and Mexico in Latin America, were able
to satisfy the needs of an ever expanding US market. But
now the political shifts caused by two wars in Iraq,
growing tensions between Washington and the Saudi
monarchy, and open conflict between the administration
of Hugo Chavez in Caracas and Washington has increased
the marketability of Russia's liquid gold, despite the
commercial inaccessibility of much of the Russian and
Central Asian interior.
These explorative
shifts, marked by the US's interest in other oil-rich
regions, have already been evident for several years. In
the late 1990s, Western oil companies attempted to woo
the then-obscure Taliban with lucrative offers in
exchange for regional security and stability for
proposed oil and gas pipelines that were to criss-cross
Afghanistan. However, no agreements were ever seen
through with the Islamic fundamentalist leadership of
the Taliban.
Yet it is also this very remoteness
that had led US energy companies to invest in oil
projects in this area, such as ChevronTexaco's efforts
in Kazakhstan and ExxonMobile's in Azerbaijan. The
Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline running from the Caspian to
the Black Sea is the first real project by a Western
consortium to come to fruition, though mostly directed
by British Petroleum.
Therefore, as conflict
complicates matters on the ground in traditional
oil-rich regions and dissuades further foreign
investment, the relative stability of a beleaguered
former superpower will seem all the more appealing to
Washington as time goes on.
Eurasia
In addition to Iran, Russia also holds considerable
influence with many other governments in Eurasia that
the US simply does not have normal, diplomatic relations
with or an extensive history and practical relationship
to draw on. Furthermore, based on geographical proximity
and mutual borders, Russia is much more a part of a
Eurasian community than the US can ever be. And as
Washington continues to wield its influence throughout
Eurasia, this has the effect of creating potential bonds
between countries when there were none to begin with.
Powerful and growing countries in the region
such as China and India represent possible partners for
the Russian Federation in a potential Eurasian alliance
hoping to add weight to the idea of a "multi-polar"
world. Because of this, despite the fact that the fate
of virtually every country can be seen as being tethered
to Washington, the US will be careful to not ostracize
Russia, as well as - at least on the surface - letting
Moscow have its say on issues critical to Russia's
interests.
In conclusion, due to a changing
geopolitical climate, Putin and Russia, representing the
ghost of the once monolithic Soviet Union, can be seen
as having increased leverage with their old nemesis, the
United States.
Published with permission of
the Power and Interest News Report,
an analysis-based publication that seeks to provide
insight into various conflicts, regions and points of
interest around the globe. All comments should be
directed to content@pinr.com
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