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Turkmenistan: A study in democracy denial
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW -
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov, also known as
"Turkmenbashi" (Father of all Turkmen), has challenged
the opposition and introduced stricter controls in an
apparent attempt to forestall regime change in
Turkmenistan. Yet it remains to be seen whether
self-exiled Turkmen opposition members will be able to
replicate a "velvet revolution" in their homeland, which
happens to contain the world's fourth largest natural
gas reserves.
Niyazov has urged exiled
dissidents to return, saying that there would be no
persecution if the courts acquitted them of being
"thieves and terrorists". Meanwhile, his critics are now
increasingly seeking Western backing, disillusioned of
getting Russian support. "They band together in Austria
and declare they are creating Turkmenistan's democratic
party," Niyazov told his security ministers in televised
remarks. He referred to a meeting of the Turkmen Union
of Democratic Forces (TUDF) on November 23-24 in Vienna.
The TUDF urged the international community to back
democratization of Turkmenistan.
Former foreign
minister Avdy Kuliyev, ex-ambassador to Turkey
Nurmukhammed Khanamov, former central bank chief
Khudaiberdy Orazov and former deputy agriculture
minister Saparmurat Yklymov have set up the TUDF to take
on Niyazov.
And Kuliyev, the head of the United
Democratic Opposition of Turkmenistan (ODOT), said that
he would not mind going back to Turkmenistan - given
Western moral support. Kuliyev told Asia Times Online:
"If I got US support, I'd go to Turkmenistan to face
trial on all charges against me." Kuliyev, now based in
a Moscow suburb, added that in 1998 he traveled to
Turkmenistan without hurdles as he had received the
backing of the United States on the eve of Niyazov's
visit to Washington.
The leaders of self-exiled
Turkmen political opposition groups established a united
front and announced the creation of the TUDF on
September 29 in the Czech capital Prague, where the
first actual "velvet revolution", a term describing a
bloodless takeover of power, took place in 1989. Turkmen
opposition activists pledged to restore the principles
of democracy, human rights and freedom of the media in
their homeland. In other words, they vowed to work for
regime change in Turkmenistan.
The united front
includes four major groups: the ODOT; the Watan
socio-political movement; the Renaissance movement; and
the Republican Party of Turkmenistan. Driven out of
their homeland, the Turkmen opposition groups now
operate in exile.
Meanwhile, Niyazov has
repeatedly demanded that Russia and Western governments
extradite his opponents. "It's a pity that many states
that pretend to be democratic give them the floor," he
said. "But shouldn't these states extradite criminals
and terrorists?" Niyazov described the opposition "and
their likes cowards and traitors who stole that much
money that it did not fit their pockets".
"All
of them are thieves, terrorists and fugitives, but if
they are not guilty, we will not persecute them. Let
them face the court here and then open their parties in
Turkmenistan," Niyazov said in televised remarks,
calling his offer a "democratic initiative".
Conversely, Niyazov has recently come up with a
series of new repressive measures and has announced yet
another overhaul of his security institutions. On
November 28, the national security minister, General
Batyr Busakov, was replaced by the former border guard
commander, Annagueldy Gummanov. It is understood that
Niyazov is now promoting young loyalists in order to
forestall a situation such as arose in Georgia recently,
where former president Eduard Shevardnadze was abandoned
by his security personnel and ultimately resigned.
The Turkmen regime has also introduced new
measures against non-governmental organizations (NGOs),
seen as a vehicle of velvet revolutions. According to a
presidential decree that was signed into law on November
21, and which went into force on the same day,
unregistered NGOs are subject to confiscation of their
property, and repeat offenses can be punished by up to
one year in prison.
In November, Turkmenistan
also introduced a Draconian law on religion outlawing
all unregistered religious activity. This specifically
declares illegal all unregistered religious groups,
while a new amendment to the criminal code prescribes
penalties for breaking the law of up to one year of
"corrective labor".
Niyazov also counterbalanced
reprisals by some populist moves. On November 21, more
than 7,000 prisoners were reportedly released in
Turkmenistan in an amnesty. Candidates for amnesty were
required to swear on the Koran and Niyazov's book
Rukhnama that they repented and would not repeat
their crimes. Many of those given amnesty were farmers
who had been jailed for hiding grain instead of handing
it to the state.
Members of the Turkmen
opposition are charged with crimes ranging from abuse of
office to embezzlement. Orazov and Khanamov have been
sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for their
alleged complicity in a reported assassination attempt
against Niyazov in November 2002, in which Niyazov's
motorcade was fired on in the capital, Ashgabat, but the
president emerged unhurt. After the incident, hundreds
were arrested and a series of televised show trials
resulted in the conviction of some 70 men, including
Russian citizens, who are now serving prison terms of up
to life. Orazov and Khanamov deny involvement in the
alleged assassination attempt.
In a sort of
moral blow to the Turkmen opposition, earlier this year
Russia publicly agreed with claims by Niyazov that
alleged assassination and coup attempts against him last
November could be defined as international terrorism. In
doing so, Moscow distanced itself from the theory that
Niyazov staged the attempts as a pretext to crack down
on opponents.
Meanwhile, Russia has repeatedly
voiced concern over alleged discrimination of ethnic
Russians in Turkmenistan, thus giving the Turkmen
opposition some bleak hopes of Moscow's possible
support. Around 95,000 Russian-speakers are believed to
hold dual citizenship in Turkmenistan. In April,
residents in possession of both Turkmen and Russian
citizenship were given two months to choose one or the
other. If a person was unable to meet the deadline, he
or she automatically became a Turkmen citizen. The
decree followed a reported agreement between Niyazov and
his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow on
April 10, revoking a dual-citizenship agreement signed
in 1993.
On November 27, the Russian State Duma,
the lower house of parliament, held hearings on the
human rights situation in Turkmenistan. However,
Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Fedotov told the
gathering that there was no "migration rush" among
Russian citizens in Turkmenistan. Since April, some
1,500 people per month have applied to move to Russia,
he said. In response, Dmitry Ragozin, head of
international committee of the Duma, pledged to continue
putting pressure on Turkmenistan. Last May, Ragozin
claimed that he had "serious information about Turkmen
authorities' support given to Taliban militants" in
neighboring Afghanistan. He also alleged that the
"Turkmen leadership was engaged in drug trafficking and
supported international terrorism". However, Ragozin's
verbal assault has had no followup as of yet.
It
has been widely believed that Moscow agreed to cancel
the dual citizenship agreement with Turkmenistan in
exchange for a major gas deal. In April, Niyazov
traveled to Moscow and signed a framework agreement on
gas cooperation with Putin, as well as a 25-year
contract on gas supplies to Russia with Russian natural
gas monopoly Gazprom. Niyazov pledged to supply up 100
billion cubic meters of gas to Russia from 2010 onward
or a total of 2 trillion cubic meters in 25 years.
Russia would pay Turkmenistan US$44 per thousand cubic
meters, 50 percent of the payment in barter and 50
percent in cash. Turkmenbashi claimed that the deal
would bring Turkmenistan $200 billion and $300 billion
to Russia.
Prior to the deal, Niyazov accused
Russia of "robbery" for buying Turkmen gas at rates as
low as $18 per thousand cubic meters while selling gas
in Europe at $120. He demanded a rate of $44 to $45, in
line with Turkmenistan's price in the Ukraine. Under the
agreement, Russia will pay $44 per thousand cubic meters
until 2006, but only half in cash, with the rest in
goods and services, a lucrative deal for Moscow.
Against this backdrop, the plight of the Turkmen
opposition became a matter of minor importance for
Moscow. Russia is unlikely to intervene in the Turkmen
human rights crisis, Kuliyev said. The Russian political
elite got all they wanted from Niyazov, a lucrative gas
deal, he told Asia Times Online.
By clinching
the deal to buy virtually all of Turkmenistan's gas,
Moscow hoped to outmaneuver the trans-Afghan pipeline
plan. In December 2002, leaders of Afghanistan, Pakistan
and Turkmenistan met in Ashgabat and signed an agreement
to build the 1,400 kilometer trans-Afghanistan pipeline
that will carry natural gas from Turkmenistan to
Pakistan. The $2.5 billion pipeline, which will
transport gas from the Dauletabad field near the Iranian
border, could also be extended to India.
The
trans-Afghan pipeline was expected to carry 20 billion
cubic meters per year for Pakistani markets. Meanwhile,
Dauletabad is still hooked up to the old Soviet pipeline
network, and Russia's Gazprom still can take gas from
there into Russia.
However, now the Turkmen
opposition is increasingly becoming more West-oriented,
and if it is successful, regime change in Turkmenistan
would result in a major rethink of Turkmen policies,
including the possibility of it skipping the gas deal
with Russia. In this case, the bulk of Turkmen gas may
eventually flow to Pakistan and possibly to India,
leaving Russia out in the cold and with all the more
reason to oppose to a velvet revolution.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
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