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TAMING THE
TORRID ZONE
Pakistan running out of
options
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The onset of winter and its heavy
snowfalls has slowed the pace of the United States-led
war in Afghanistan, but this has not stopped US
authorities from launching renewed efforts to expose the
deep nexus between the Taliban and Pakistan, whose
strategic forces the US clearly blames for aiding and
abetting the resistance movement.
As Asia Times
Online predicted in October last year (see accompanying
excerpt), the Taliban
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The battles for the [Afghan] cities
are expected to begin next summer. In the mean
time, during the long harsh winter that is already
well advanced, the mujahideen will lie low in
their caves, from where, for the first time, they
will launch a series of suicide missions.
Taliban raise the stakes in
Afghanistan
(Oct 30,
'03)
Asia Times
Online
| has
adopted suicide attacks as a part of its winter
strategy. In the past month, there have been such
attacks in the most important Afghan cities, including
the capital Kabul, Jalalabad, Khost, Paktia and Paktika.
A suicide bomber killed five security officials in Kabul
on December 28. On January 5, a bomb exploded in a
Kandahar market, killing more than a dozen and injuring
upwards of 60; in another attack, a vehicle was ambushed
by militants, killing 12 passengers.
This
approach, which is a new development in Afghanistan's
history of struggles against foreign invaders dating
back to the British and Russians in the 19th century, is
meant to rattle the nerves of the regime of Hamid Karzai
and its foreign coalition partners in preparation for
concerted spring attacks in which the resistance has set
the goal of retaking major cities.
It is a
geographic fact that the Afghan resistance is centered
around the Pashtun areas along the Pakistani border as
Pashtuns form the core of the resistance.
Unquestionably, too, the Afghan resistance takes
advantage of the rugged terrain and relative lawlessness
of the region to make use of Pakistani territory as a
sanctuary.
However, as the resistance shows no
sign of being tamed, indeed, it grows in strength - the
100th US soldier died in Afghanistan this week since the
invasion of late 2001 - the US is no longer prepared to
accept Pakistan's involvement in Afghan affairs as an
"accident of geography".
Washington is now
convinced that its ally in the global "war on terror",
or certainly elements in Pakistan's strategic community,
are inextricably linked to the Afghan resistance,
including providing training, supplies and arms to the
guerrillas. Now, the US wants to establish exactly just
how deep these ties go, and whether they have the
consent - tacit or otherwise - of President General
Pervez Musharraf.
Asia Times Online has learned
from sources in Rawalpindi, home of army headquarters,
that Washington "requested" from Islamabad a list of all
military operators who served in Afghanistan under cover
during and after the fall of the Taliban, which
Pakistan, until Musharraf's about-turn after September
11, actively supported and promoted.
This
request was apparently fulfilled, and marks one of the
most significant developments in Pakistan's cooperation
with the US as the list, with a little bit of
extrapolation, provides detailed information on the
activities of the Inter-Services Intelligence's key
military operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the
region.
As a result of this new information, the
sources tell Asia Times Online that the US has now
singled out a South Waziristan agency and the
surrounding desolate terrain leading to Afghanistan as a
highly likely hideout of Taliban leaders as well as key
al-Qaeda operators, including Osama bin Laden's
righthand man, Ayman al-Zawahri. This agency in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas in the west of
Pakistan is the most sensitive in the country; it is not
under the direct administration of the central
government, but indirectly governed by a political
agent, and it is a hotbed of resistance.
After
previously taking part in many joint Pakistan and US
operations in the area, US authorities have officially
admitted that the latest operation in South Waziristan
on Thursday last week was launched at their request. The
Pakistani army used gunship helicopters to back troops
in the operation, and four Pakistani soldiers were
killed in an attack by unidentified militants on an army
camp in the area.
In response, the Pakistan army
has issued a final warning to local tribal elders to
help track down those who targeted the troops, and at
the same time it has called for reinforcements and
blocked all incoming and out-going routes - as far as
feasibly possible in such rough countryside.
As
a result, a tribal council in the town of Wana agreed to
form a small army to aid the government. Hundreds of
Wazir tribesmen held a traditional jirga, or
council meeting, on Sunday. "We have to save our area
from destruction. Pakistan is our country, it is very
dear to us," tribal elder and former parliamentarian Nur
Mohammad was quoted in the press as saying.
According to tribal reports in Wana, the
situation in the region is very tense, with the US
keeping a very close eye on developments. Apparently the
plan is to launch another offensive in South Waziristan
in the near future, and at the same time begin an
offensive across the border in Afghanistan in the
mountains around Shakin. This pincer movement, it is
hoped, will catch any suspects between a rock and a very
hard place.
The US is particularly keen to take
urgent measures against resistance forces before summer
for a number of reasons. These include:
Break the resistance before it can consolidate over
the summer for a war on major cities in a bid to retake
control of the country.
Coalition forces have failed to cultivate "moderate
Taliban" allies or bring about any significant divisions
within the resistance.
The recent jirga indicates that the largest
components of the Northern Alliance - which dominates
the government in Kabul - the Jamiat-i-Islami and the
Ittahad-i-Islami, are dead against the US-sponsored
terms for a new constitution for the country and are
even trying to establish contact with the Hizb-i-Islami
of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. Mujahideen leader and warlord
Hekmatyar is a key figure in the resistance.
The
news that thousands of recent recruits from the new
Afghan army have deserted has also set alarm bells
ringing as these men have all received basic military
training and there is every reason to believe that many
of them will be tempted to throw in their lot with
Hekmatyar or his associates.
Against this
backdrop, the operations in the South Waziristan region
take on critical significance. Firstly, the US would
desperately like to catch a big al-Qaeda fish. And
secondly, if the resistance is not broken now, it is
going to be a long, hot and bloody summer in
Afghanistan.
The ball is now in Pakistan's
court.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd.
All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
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