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Arming Asia: Russia's $5 billion
forte
By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- As Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov visits India
from January 19-21 to finalize the US$1.5 billion sale
of the Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, Russia's arms
exporters are feeling increasingly confident in the
Asian market for armaments - and with good reason.
In 2003, Russia recorded a highly successful
year of arms trade, with the bulk of armament shipments
going to Asia. Last year, Russia's arms exports exceeded
an unprecedented $5 billion, as compared with $4.8
billion in 2002.
India relies heavily on Russia
for its arms, with Moscow enjoying the rewards of being
New Delhi's largest supplier. During the Cold War, the
former Soviet Union and India maintained close ties. New
Delhi has bought some $33 billion worth of weapons from
Moscow since the 1960s and Russian weapons account for
nearly three quarters of India's arsenal. For instance,
the former Soviet Union and then Russia have built a
total of 67 naval vessels for India.
The deal
for the Admiral Gorshkov has been discussed for nearly a
decade. The 45,570 ton vessel was built in 1978 and was
known as Baku until the Soviet collapse in 1991. The
modernization of the carrier will cost India around $700
million, and the remainder of the billion dollar deal
will include up to 30 MiG-29K fighters and six Kamov-31
anti-submarine helicopters.
The carrier is due
to be supplied to India in 2008, Ivanov was quoted as
saying by the Russian Information Agency. The deal comes
as a good start of 2004, Ivanov said. However, Ivanov
dismissed rumors that Russia was mulling sales of
nuclear submarines to India and pledged to stick with
non-proliferation commitments when exporting arms to
India.
Moscow has been proactive to catering to
the demands of the Indian navy. In June 2003, Russia
delivered to India a Krivak-III class stealth frigate,
the INS Talwar (Sword). The two other frigates, INS
Tabar and INS Trishul (Trident), were built by Russia as
part of the $1 billion deal. The three frigates are
designed for anti-submarine warfare and air defense of
warship groups. They are equipped with a number of
weapons systems, including eight vertical launch cells
for the Klub-N anti-ship and anti-submarine cruise
missiles as well as the Shtil surface-to-air missile
system. The frigates are also designed to carry one
heavy-duty helicopter, like the Kamov-28 anti-submarine
warfare chopper.
India had signed the deal for
the purchase of the three 4,000-ton frigates in November
1997, yet the deal has been marred by controversy. In
late 2002, the Russians reportedly said that the frigate
was ready for delivery. More than 400 personnel were
sent to Russia for training on the two ships. On
arrival, the Indians reportedly discovered that the
frigate's surface-to-air missile system was not
performing, and the INS Trishul crew was recalled.
Indian naval officials reportedly did not want to accept
warships, which they viewed as not combat-ready.
Despite some controversies, India and Russia
have agreed to extend to 2010 a long-term program of
military-technical cooperation signed in 1994 which was
initially limited to the year 2000. India imported
Russian arms worth $3.5 billion between 1990 and 1996.
Russia and India have also agreed to cooperate
in the building of a new fighter aircraft and joint
production of the Brahmos cruise missile, which is
expected to be deployed in 2004. The Brahmos would be
based on the Russian Yakhont anti-ship missile, it has a
range of 300 kilometers and flies at twice the speed of
sound.
Another deal signed by New Delhi - this
one in 1996 - was the $1.8 billion purchase of up to 50
Sukhoi jets. The first aircraft were delivered in 1997
and the entire lot is expected to be in service by 2005.
Meanwhile, a deal signed in 2000 is estimated to be
worth $3.3 billion, in which 140 Sukhois would be built
under license in India. India is due to start
manufacturing Su-30MKIs under license at plants in India
as soon as this year. Incidentally, last December India
denied media reports it had refused to accept a batch of
Russian Sukhoi combat jets because of a high rate of
engine failure in earlier batches.
Much to the
chagrin of India, Moscow simultaneously mulls selling
arms to Pakistan. Following a trip to Pakistan in
December 2003, Sergei Stepashin, head of Russia's Audit
Chamber and former prime minister, announced that
Pakistan could import $12 billion worth of Russian
weapons within the next 3-4 years.
Russia's
achievements in arms trade with Asia are not limited to
the sub-continent. In terms of arms exports, 2003 was
the year of Asia-Pacific for Russia, argued Mikhail
Dmitriyev, head of Russia's Federal Committee on foreign
military-technical cooperation.
China in
Russia's sights, too
Notably, Moscow and Beijing
have just clinched a deal under which China would
procure $2 billion worth of Russian military hardware
and technologies in 2004. On December 17, Ivanov and his
visiting Chinese counterpart, General Cao Gangchuan,
signed an agreement on defense ties between Moscow and
Beijing in 2004. According to the deal, in 2004 China
plans to bring its $2 billion military purchases in
Russia closer to the ratio of some 30 percent of
serially produced weapons and 70 percent of production
licenses and defense technologies.
Overall,
military ties between China and Russia are a very
important factor in ensuring security for the world,
Ivanov has maintained. In a highlight of the deal's
importance for Moscow, Gangchuan was received by Russian
President Vladimir Putin. At the meeting, Putin
reportedly noted "serious progress in the
military-technical cooperation" between Russia and
China.
The December deal between Russia and
China is understood to indicate the increased importance
of the arms trade for both countries. China has been a
top buyer of Russian military hardware, and accounts for
nearly half of Russia's arms exports.
For
instance, Beijing bought 73 Sukhoi fighter jets in the
past three years alone. Aircraft sales remain a
cornerstone of Russia's arms exports. On the other hand,
in 1996, Russia and China inked a $2.5 billion deal to
manufacture 200 Su-27SKs under license at a plant in
Shenyang.
China has also been reported to be
considering the purchase of Tu-22MZ bombers with Granit
cruise missiles. However, on December 18 the Russian
Defense Ministry dismissed reports about alleged
discussions over sales of Russia's advanced airborne
weapons to China.
Currently China's portfolio of
orders to import Russian weapons is worth $6 billion,
said General Yuri Rodionov, Russia's former defense
minister. These contracts are due to be completed by
2010, he stated. Russia has also sold to China S-300PMU
long-range anti-aircraft missile systems, ship-based
S-300F Reef anti-aircraft missile systems, Project 956E
Sovremenny (Modern) class destroyers, Project 877EKM and
Project 636 conventional submarines.
Military-technical cooperation comes as an
important factor of the growing bilateral economic ties,
simultaneously indicating some convergent geopolitical
interests, Professor Aleksei Voskressensky of the
Institute of International Relations told Asia Times
Online.
Moscow and Beijing's respective
positions have recently converged on a variety of
important international issues. They have warned against
United States unilateralism and said that they saw no
cause for the war against Iraq. Russia and China have
also opposed the planned US national missile defense
program.
In the wake of the US-led war on Iraq,
there has been increased demand for Russian arms in
Asia, said Alexander Salitsky, a China expert at the
Institute of World Economy and International Relations,
a Moscow-based think tank. On the other hand, China's
massive arms procurements provide stimuli for other
Asian nations to import weapons, he told Asia Times
Online.
Vietnam in the arms
queue
Meanwhile, Moscow still supplies arms to
some of its Cold War Era allies in Asia. For instance,
last August Russia clinched a deal to export to Vietnam
two S300 PMU1 air defense batteries (or 12 launchers)
for a reported nearly $300 million. The S300 PMU is an
advanced version of the SA-10C Grumble air defense
missile.
Though Vietnam is now fully integrated
into the Southeast Asian community, Hanoi still arms its
military with Russian weapons. In March 2001, Putin
visited Hanoi and announced a new strategic partnership
with Vietnam. The Russian leader said that "Vietnam
needs not just to maintain its existing weapons bought
from the Soviet Union and Russia but also needs modern
weapons".
Bilateral military ties are set to go
ahead because Hanoi seeks to modernize its half-million
strong armed forces, and Vietnam remains an important
customer for Russian arms. In 1995, Hanoi bought six
Sukhoi Su-27 Flanker fighter jets for $150 million and
in 1997 signed a contract for six more planes and spare
parts. In recent years, the Vietnamese military also
bought six missile boats from the "1241 project" for
some $120 million as well as four radar stations in
Russia.
The Russians also suggested the
Vietnamese purchase more Sukhois and consider buying
another jetfighter, the MiG-29, as well as MiG training
jets. In December 2003, Moscow and Hanoi reportedly
clinched a $120 million deal involving supply of four
Su-30MKKs to Vietnam.
Looking to build onto its
already lucrative customer base, Russian arms exporters
are now actively seeking to develop new markets in Asia.
When Putin traveled to Malaysia August 4-5 for talks
with former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad, a $900
million deal to supply 18 Sukhoi fighter jets was
signed.
The Su-30MKM combat aircraft, expected
to be delivered in 2006-2007, would be modified with
"suitable weaponry" to meet Malaysia's requirements and
were hence renamed Su-30MKM (where the last M stands for
Malaysia). Su-30MKM is similar to Su-30MKI, supplied to
India, but the Malaysian version does not have
Israeli-made electronics, reportedly at Kuala Lumpur's
request.
Malaysia has long been understood to be
considering the procurement of Sukhoi aircraft,
following the purchase of 18 MiG-29 in mid-1990s, when a
barter scheme involving supplies of Malaysian palm oil
was used. Russian media outlets have recently speculated
that Malaysia was reviewing the procurement of 78
Russian-made T-90S tanks, BTR-3 and BMP armored
vehicles.
Moscow also has directed its eye
further south. Indonesian President Megawati
Soekarnoputri traveled to Russia last April, clinching a
deal with Russia's state-owned monopoly Rosoboronexport
for four Russian Sukhoi fighter planes, two Sukhoi-27s
and two Sukhoi-30s, worth about $200 million in total.
Following the purchase an initial batch of two
long-range Su-27s and two Su-30s for delivery this year,
Indonesia reportedly planned to buy at least another 44
planes over the next four years with an estimated $1.4
billion price tag for the 48 jets.
In the wake
of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Indonesia canceled
pre-existing plans to procure Russian-built Sukhoi-30
jet fighters. In 2002, Russia supplied 12 BTR 80-A
amphibious armored vehicles to Indonesian armed forces.
Russian also sold 10,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles and
naval Mil-2 helicopters.
The Kremlin has long
been pledging to prioritize and develop its economic
relations with the Asia-Pacific region. However, it
remains to be seen whether official pronouncements are
going to be accompanied by an actual increase in
non-military trade.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
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