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Afghanistan: When push comes to
shove
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - As each day brings spring a fraction
closer, the mood in Afghanistan is not one of the joy
normally associated with the season, but one of
trepidation, as the country stares down the barrel of a
gun.
In this latest chapter of Afghanistan's
tormented history, two Afghans are expected to feature
prominently in Khost and the eastern province of Kunar,
respectively: legendary commander Maulana Jalaluddin
Haqqani, and former Afghan premier and chief of the
Hezb-i-Islami Afghanistan (HIA), Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.
Sources in Islamabad close to the Afghan
resistance say that once the weather permits, Khost, on
the eastern Afghan border with Pakistan, will be the
first target of resistance forces, with the aim of
taking complete control of it. Much of the spade work
has already been done in forging local alliances with
tribal chiefs and warlords, who have said that they will
either support the attack or stay neutral. Haqqani will
lead this offensive, supported by senior Afghan
commanders, including Saifullah Mansoor.
Before
this offense begins, though, more suicide attacks will
be carried out against coalition forces in different
regions of Afghanistan. These were planned by Hekmatyar
and his most trusted commander, "Engineer" Kashmir Khan,
at a recent meeting in Kunar.
An intelligence
official associated with a Western agency told Asia
Times Online: "There is information that newly formed
suicide squads comprising just three to four persons
have been assigned to carry out missions that include
rapid infiltration among the coalition forces. At the
same time, Western NGO [non-governmental organizations]
members will be another target. The aim is to cleanse
Afghanistan of all Westerners, whether civilian or
military."
Soon after this interview, suspected
Taliban guerillas killed four Afghan aid workers in
western Afghanistan, an area that had been considered
relatively safe. It was the deadliest attack on
humanitarian workers since September. The victims were
working for a United Nations demining agency when they
were ambushed.
Asia Times Online's sources say
that the resistance's spring attacks will be jointly
carried out by Taliban, foreign fighters and members of
the HIA, and for the first time, the sources say,
contingency plans have been devised to deal with US
aerial assaults.
Coalition
response
Troops from the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) have begun converging along the
eastern border areas opposite Pakistan's North
Waziristan Agency, where special intelligence equipment
has been installed on the outskirts of Miran Shah. The
NATO forces aim to consolidate around Khost and the
Kunar valley to preempt the spring attack of the
resistance.
Given the prospects of increased
military confrontation, and the continued growth of the
resistance, the United States is also seeking a
diplomatic solution. In this regard, Pakistan comes into
play - which partly explains why Washington has taken
pains not to criticize Islamabad too harshly despite the
revelations of its nuclear proliferation.
Pakistani officials sent some tribal leaders
from Miran Shah to meet with Jalaluddin Haqqani near
Khost, where, on behalf of the US, they offered him a
truce: stop your resistance, and you will be given a
share of the country's political power. Haqqani refused,
but officials remain optimistic that this might not be
the final word.
At the same time, the Pakistani
group also met with HIA representatives in Miran Shah,
and offered them, too, a truce on behalf of the US: the
HIA, which was once the largest resistance group against
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s, would
be allowed to take part in the upcoming elections, and
Hekmatyar would also be permitted to participate. And
Hekmatyar's son-in-law, Dr Ghairat Baheer, would be
released. Ghairat was based in Islamabad and looked
after the HIA's political wing, as well as being its
spokesperson. On behalf of Hekmatyar, he signed an
accord with the Taliban to fight against the impending
US invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001. Subsequently he
was picked up in a joint operation by US and Pakistani
intelligence officials and taken to Bagram airbase
outside Kabul. He is either still there, or has been
taken to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Hekmatyar and the
HIA have yet to respond to this offer. His decision
could have a far-reaching impact on Afghanistan. Should
the famed mujahideen leader leave the resistance - which
is effectively under his control - and join the
political mainstream, many other resistance leaders
would likely follow, especially in the Kandahar,
Jalalabad and Kunar Valley regions, which are under HIA
control. At the same time, Hekmatyar has strong support
in regions of northern Afghanistan. Further, many
important Afghan officials now serving in the
administration of Hamid Karzai in Kabul are still loyal
to Hekmatyar, so, depending on which way he jumps, they
could follow.
To put it more succinctly, if
Hekmatyar "defects", the whole resistance movement could
fall like a house of cards. Though Hekmatyar is known
for his stubborn and single-minded nature, he is also
known to hanker after once again getting his hands on
the political levers of power (He was briefly prime
minister in 1996 before being driven out by the
Taliban).
Should Hekmatyar resist the US
overtures - he does know the territory, he was the US's
darling during the anti-Soviet resistance days, now he's
a "terrorist" - the prospects of all-out war in
Afghanistan become all too real. Even worse, the war
this time could be taken into Pakistan territory to once
and for all crush the resistance by cutting off its safe
havens and supply lines.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar,
the 57-year-old engineer from Kunduz province, has a lot
to think about.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times
Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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