Afghanistan: Crossing the
Rubicon By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - After the Pakistani army's failure in
its recent operation in the South Waziristan tribal area
to deal a significant blow to foreign resistance
fighters poised for action in Afghanistan, Pakistan and
the United States have concluded that they have no
alternative other than to undertake "mission
impossible": the capture of the "Shawal" base that
straddles the border.
To date, US-led forces
have respected the Durand Line that separates
Afghanistan and Pakistan, waiting for Pakistani forces to
drive foreign militants, Afghan resistance fighters and
Taliban into their hands from across the border in a
"hammer and anvil" approach.
This has proved
ineffective, and security forces have told Asia Times
Online that, with great reluctance and trepidation,
Pakistan and the US will soon launch operations designed
to secure the Shawal area.
As Asia Times Online
has described (Afghan offensive: Grand
plans hit rugged reality, March 20),
"Technically speaking, Shawal falls on the Afghan side
of the Durand Line that divides Pakistan and
Afghanistan. (Editor's note: The border area inside
North Waziristan is also called Shawal.) In reality,
Shawal is a no-man's land, a place no one would want to
go to unless he were as tough as the local tribespeople,
a guerrilla fighter taking on the US, or, perhaps, Osama
bin Laden. Shawal is a deep and most dangerous maze."
The Shawal area has for centuries
given protection to people, explains Senator Syed Murad
Ali Shah, one of the most low-profile Jamaat-i-Islami
leaders, though he has been a major player in the region
of Afghanistan and Iran since 1967.
"The reason
why descendents of the Prophet Mohammed's family are
found in huge numbers in Afghanistan and along the Indus
river has an historic background. After the
assassination of Husein in Karbala [in 680] and
subsequent clashes between members of Prophet's family
and the Umayyads [Husein's killers] several members of
the family fled into what is now Iraq, and they also
took refuge exactly in this area where Pakistani troops
are fighting to arrest foreign fighters. The Arab armies
failed to access the area, and later on the Afghan
tribes struck a deal with Abu Mosa Ashari that these
'foreigners' under their protection would not move
anywhere. The foreigners married into the local
population and spread all over the region along the
Indus," the senator explained.
Now
US commanders believe they are capable of seizing this
natural fortress of Shawal, where thick jungles and
mountains can swallow many dozens of people without a
trace.
A blueprint for the Shawal action has,
according to those close to the planning who spoke to
Asia Times Online, has been chalked over several
meetings between Pakistani President and Chief of Army
General Pervez Musharraf, the vice chief of army ataff,
General Mohammed Yusuf, and top US commanders, including
General Abi Zaid, commander of the US Central Command.
The Shawal targeted in the present campaign is
situated in Afghanistan, but the controversial part of
the plan is realization that it would be impossible for
US troops not to transgress into Pakistani territory in
hot pursuit of targets if the mission is to have any
success.
It is near impossible for any army to
conduct "search and seize" operations in the jungles of
Shawal. Therefore, US patrols will disappear into the
jungle, and attempt to track down fugitives with
satellite technology backed with helicopters. As
admitted by Musharraf, few of the foreign fighters have
the equipment needed to jam communication systems.
According to the Asia Times Online sources,
Pakistani authorities are deeply concerned over the
losses incurred in the last operation in South
Waziristan. Officially, the government has admitted to
the death of about 50 soldiers. But independent sources
and witnesses reckon the number could be as high as 800,
including both military and paramilitary forces.
Yet as the situation stands now, Pakistan can be
expected to incur more losses. Already troops have been
ordered to take up positions around the Shawal area, but
in Pakistan territory. The locals are unhappy about this
presence. They will be a lot less happy when US troops
show up on their doorsteps.
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