MOSCOW
- The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a
six-member group that embraces Russia, China,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, has
been keen to mint itself as a full-fledged international
organization and a major power in Central Eurasia. Yet
despite official pronouncements of unity, disagreements
between member states remain. Notably, border disputes
between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan seem to
expose the SCO's weakness as a vehicle to promote
regional security.
As chief SCO diplomats
gathered in the Russian capital on April 22-23, they
pledged to address regional security concerns. "The SCO
should play a more important role in safeguarding
security in Central Asia," Kazakh Foreign Minister
Kasymzhomart Tokayev told the journalists in Moscow.
The SCO members, notably Uzbekistan, which was
recently shaken by terrorist attacks, prefer to
emphasize the need for the development of SCO's
anti-terrorism capabilities. Uzbek Foreign Minister
Sadyk Safayev stated that SCO should prioritize the
fight against international terrorism, separatism and
extremism.
Meanwhile, China and Russia are also
both interested in seeing SCO develop a trade component.
Russia stressed the need to improve regional trade,
adding that Moscow accorded a special place to SCO among
its trade partners. SCO states are now mulling a free
trade agreement, Alexander Ivanov, director of the Asian
department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, announced.
The meeting was also aimed to prepare for the
next SCO summit, due in Uzbek capital Tashkent in June.
The summit is expected to inaugurate the SCO
anti-terrorism center. Leaders of Afghanistan and
Mongolia have been invited to attend the Tashkent summit
as guests of Uzbek President Islam Karimov.
When
in June 2001 the informal Shanghai Five group of states
became SCO, member states envisioned the organization as
a counterweight to growing US economic and political
influence. In June 2002, the leaders of the five states
plus Uzbekistan agreed to base the SCO secretariat in
Beijing, and to establish a joint-terrorism center.
However, SCO's smaller members have been keen to
avoid an impression that they have been banding together
with Russia and China to oppose the West. "SCO is not
directed against any state, including the US," Kazakh
chief diplomat Tokayev announced in Moscow on April 22.
It has been understood that Russia and China
have reluctantly tolerated the US strategic presence in
Central Asia. They are concerned that permanent American
military bases in the region would be primarily designed
to limit Beijing's and Moscow's influence in Central
Asia.
Pledges of unity were reiterated in the
Russian capital this week. Russia and China are united
on key international issues, Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov told his visiting Chinese counterpart Li
Zhaoxing.
Meanwhile, the US seems to be moving
towards establishing a long-term presence in Central
Asia, in Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, despite
Russian overt and Chinese tacit opposition.
When
the US established bases at Khanabad in Uzbekistan, and
at Manas in Kyrgyzstan in the wake of the September 11
terrorist attacks, the US promised that American forces
would stay only as long as the regional terrorism threat
remained. In recent months, however, US officials have
indicated the possibility of more permanent Central
Asian bases. Moreover, there has been a talk of an Asian
collective security organization, a so-called "Asian
NATO", an apparent would-be counterbalance to SCO.
During a visit to Uzbekistan in February, US
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld indicated that the US
wanted to establish operating facilities: not permanent
bases, but places where the US could have ad hoc access.
In pledging that a potential US presence did not mean a
large-scale military deployment, US officials hope to
limit Russian and Chinese opposition to these plans for
Central Asia.
Since September 11, Uzbekistan has
closely aligned itself with the US in its anti-terrorism
campaign. Uzbek Foreign Minister Sadyk Safayev did not
rule out the possibility of a permanent US military base
in Uzbekistan. Rumsfeld's remarks in Tashkent indicated
that Uzbekistan was a candidate to host a potential US
site. However, Kyrgyz officials are yet to agree with
the permanent American military presence there.
Moscow has been insisting that the US military
presence in the region is temporary and should be ended
after anti-terrorism action in Afghanistan ends. Russia
would accept US bases in Central Asia no longer than the
anti-terrorism operation in Afghanistan, Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov has repeatedly reiterated.
However, continued border disputes between
Central Asian states could provide Washington with a
good pretext for staying longer in the name of
stabilization. Border issues somewhat perturb relations
among some Central Asian states, with Uzbekistan playing
a central role in many of the disputes. In particular,
since earlier this year, Tashkent's practice of mining
its borders has been increasingly criticized by its
neighbors.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, both SCO
members, have been the most vocal critics of the Uzbek
mining policy, which Tashkent insists is a cornerstone
of its anti-terrorist efforts. Mines have reportedly
caused over 120 Tajik casualties since 2000, of whom 70
died. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan also claimed that
Uzbekistan had mined sections of their respective
territory.
Beyond the land mine issue, poorly
demarcated frontiers are in themselves a source of
friction. Since earlier this year, Uzbekistan has
accused Kyrgyzstan for delaying the border delimitation
agreement that fixes over 1,000 kilometers (620 miles)
of the bilateral frontier. Tashkent had wanted the
agreement to take effect by November of 2003. Kyrgyz
officials, however, want to define a separate 250
kilometer stretch of frontier before the border
agreement takes effect.
Though united in
criticizing Uzbekistan on the mine issue, Kyrgyzstan and
Tajikistan are also divided among themselves about
border issues. Kyrgyz officials, for example, have long
accused Tajiks of encroaching into Kyrgyz territory.
Moreover, in yet another highlight of tensions
between some SCO states, earlier this year a lieutenant
in Tajikistan's border guards, Farmon Fozilov, was
sentenced by a military court to 20 years in prison on
charges of having spied for Uzbek border guards.
Nonetheless, the SCO still seeks to be a
geopolitical player in Central Asian security
developments, a trend also reflected in bilateral
defense ties between Russia and China. "The SCO security
potential is yet to be fully utilized," Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov announced during his trip to
China on April 20-22.
Chinese Defense Minister
Cao Gangchuan, and his visiting Russian counterpart
Ivanov discussed bilateral arms trading. The chairman of
the Chinese Central Military Commission, Jiang Zemin,
told Ivanov that military cooperation was an important
part of the strategic partnership between the two
nations. Last December, Moscow and Beijing clinched a
deal under which China would procure $2 billion worth of
Russian military hardware and technologies in 2004.
Ivanov also announced that a Chinese military
unit would take part in the "Frontier-2004" war games
next summer within the framework of SCO. Russian combat
aircraft based in Kant, Kyrgyzstan, will join the
exercise as well.
China has been seen as
increasing its security ties in Central Asia through
SCO. Notably, China has committed itself for the first
time to a regional collective security agreement focused
on enforcement of borders. The SCO anti-terrorist rapid
deployment forces could be used to help enforce border
security, along with the other members of the Shanghai
group.
Moreover, SCO's leading states claim they
have answers to the challenges of international
terrorism. Russia and China know how to combat
terrorism, Ivanov announced in Beijing on April 21.
"Military measures should not be excessive but remain
adequate regarding existing threats," he said.
Smaller SCO nations follow suit, with optimistic
anti-terrorist pronouncements. "There are no reasons,
either political or social, for terrorist outbreaks in
Kazakhstan," Kazakh Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart
Tokayev argued in Moscow on April 22.
But
despite official anti-terrorist pronouncements, border
disagreements between some member states underline the
limits of SCO's abilities and regional influence. If
disputes between smaller SCO states persist, the
Shanghai grouping could remain a discussion forum,
forcing major powers - Russia and China - to reevaluate
the group's perceived initial strategic purpose to
counterweight growing US influence in the region.
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