MOSCOW - In the wake of the
September 11, 2001 attacks, the reinvented partnership
between the United States and Russia has been heralded
as an end to the Cold War era. However, Moscow's
continued objections against the expansion of the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) could serve as an
indication that Russia still faces immense challenges on
the path toward integration with the West.
NATO
has tried to reassure Moscow that the expansion is not
directed against Russia. Nonetheless, Russia seems to
feel isolated and threatened as up to two thirds of
Russians view NATO as an "aggressive" bloc, according to
recent opinion polls.
Russia fears that NATO
will go on expanding and the next round of expansion
could involve Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Uzbekistan and
other Central Asian countries, completing what is seen
in Moscow as the geopolitical encirclement of Russia.
Some Russian commentators say that the eastward
expansion of NATO constitutes the biggest threat to
their country since World War II.
Russia's fears
of encirclement were heightened by speculation that
other former Soviet states could eventually join NATO.
Rumors swirled in Moscow that the Central Asian state of
Kazakhstan could join NATO as well. In April, the Kazakh
Foreign Ministry had to issue a statement, indicating
that Kazakhstan had no plans to join the bloc.
Nonetheless, the State Duma, which is the lower
house of the Russian parliament, lashed out at NATO's
expansion to Russia's frontiers and urged the Russian
government to re-think its defense strategies and
deployment of its forces. The Duma's pro-Kremlin
majority overwhelmingly approved a resolution that
strongly urged NATO members to ratify an amended version
of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty that
would include restrictions on the deployment of weapons
near Russia's borders.
In May 2002, Russia
joined the NATO-Russian Council, which gave Moscow a
role in drafting and implementing several common
policies on peacekeeping, counter-terrorism, weapons
proliferation, humanitarian intervention and regional
crises. The creation of the council indicated a
transformation of NATO, which was established in 1949 to
defend the West against the Soviet threat.
On
March 29, NATO expanded to 26 states, incorporating
seven new members. Now Moscow argues that NATO's move
eastward contradicted its pledge to enhance cooperation
with Russia in counter-terrorism, nonproliferation,
peacekeeping and other areas, contained in the 2002
agreement. NATO, in turn, has blamed Russia for failing
to fulfill its pledge to withdraw its troops from the
former Soviet states of Georgia and Moldova. Moscow
argues that Georgia and Moldova are unrelated to the
CFE.
Despite heated objections, the Kremlin has
said that Russia would continue to cooperate with NATO
However, Moscow indicated it could reassess its military
planning in view of what it called NATO's aggressive
strategy. Moscow was particularly unhappy with NATO's
decision to deploy aircraft to defend the airspace of
the three ex-Soviet Baltic republics of Estonia, Latvia
and Lithuania as soon as they join the bloc.
Although no other countries were likely to be
invited to join NATO soon, Moscow has sounded
increasingly nervous about NATO's eastward expansion.
Many Russian media outlets commented that NATO aircraft
would be deployed "in five-minute flight time" from the
country's second largest city, St Petersburg.
Of
course, four old Belgian jets patrolling Baltic airspace
hardly present any threat to Russia. Nevertheless,
Russia's time-honored fears of encirclement resurfaced
in the 1990s, when Russian power and influence hit near
all-time lows. Furthermore, Moscow probably feels that
its recent friendly moves towards the West did not
really pay off.
In the wake of September 11,
Russia has undertaken a series of gestures towards the
US. In October 2002, the Kremlin announced a shut down
of its Cold War Era military facilities: a spy radar
station in Lourdes, Cuba and a naval base in Cam Ranh
Bay, Vietnam to spare more money for the Russian armed
forces. Russia also dropped its initial opposition to
the stationing of American military forces close to its
borders in Central Asia.
Moscow's pro-Western
course after September 11 reaped benefits for Russia.
Notably, in May 2002 Russia and the US signed a legally
binding treaty to reduce the two countries' long-range
nuclear weapons by two-thirds and liquidate the legacy
of the Cold War. Russia's new cooperative face secured
US backing for Moscow's efforts to join the World Trade
Organization (WTO). Russia also received membership in
the G-8 group of the most industrialized countries.
Russia was recognized as a market economy by the US and
the European Union in 2002.
The invitation to
Russia in 2002 for full participation in political and
economic discussions, as well as to host the 2006
meeting of the G-8, acknowledged Russian support in
Afghanistan following the September 11 attacks, and
President Vladimir Putin's decision to accept the next
round of NATO expansion quietly.
As both NATO
and the EU creep closer to Russian frontiers, Moscow
seems to opt a path of compromise. Russia and the EU,
which on May 1 expanded deep into Eastern Europe, had
agreed in principle on all outstanding problems Moscow
had with EU expansion, apart from the rights of Russian
speakers in the Baltic States.
Russia and the EU
forged a last minute agreement on April 27. The
extension to the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
(PCA) means that the 10 new members joining the EU will
trade with Russia under the same rules as the EU's 15
existing members. The agreement comes after months of
Russian refusal to sign the extension to the PCA. unless
certain concerns were dealt with. The deal covers trade
and all political, economic and cultural links between
Moscow and the EU.
The EU had insisted that the
PCA be extended automatically, causing a stalemate that
lasted for months. Russia fears losing the trade
benefits it enjoys with many of the new members, eight
of which are former communist countries with which
Moscow has close ties. Russia has been seeking
compensation for the expansion. Moscow forwarded a list
of 14 demands, including one to raise quotas on Russian
steel imports.
The EU demanded that foreign and
independent firms be allowed access to Russia's gas
pipelines and to raise domestic gas prices to
international levels. Russia's state-controlled monopoly
Gazprom, the world's biggest gas company, opposes any
liberalization of the system. But Moscow would not be
prepared to hike domestic gas prices and remove another
major EU objection to its WTO accession.
Russia
and the EU also struck a deal on cargo shipments to and
from Russia's Kaliningrad enclave, which is wedged
between incoming EU members Poland and Lithuania.
Yet progress on negotiations on Russia's entry
into the WTO remained slow. The EU reportedly offered
Moscow smoother accession in exchange for ratification
of the Kyoto Protocol, a global environmental pact that
the EU has pressured Moscow to ratify.
The EU
and Moscow have yet to solve a dispute over treatment of
the Russian minorities in the Baltics, particularly in
Latvia and Estonia. Russia has long complained about
what it calls discrimination against Russian-speakers in
Estonia and Latvia. In the end, the joint declaration
did not specifically refer to Russian minorities but to
minorities in general.
Russian objections
against NATO's eastward expansion, combined with
long-standing Russian fears and suspicions over Western
intentions, demonstrate that Moscow still faces a long
path towards full-scale partnership with its Cold War
Era foes.
Published with permission of
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