Chechnya killing hits
Moscow's pocket By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- Not only did Sunday's bomb blast in Grozny kill
Chechnya's pro-Moscow president Akhmad Kadyrov, but it
also dealt a severe blow to Russia's drive to overcome
disagreements with the Arab world over Chechnya and
attract Saudi investment, meanwhile highlighting
similarities between the Iraqi and Chechen insurgencies.
During the 1990s, many Muslim nations, notably
oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, criticized
Russia for its crackdowns in Chechnya. But after Kadyrov
was elected as the pro-Moscow Chechen ruler in October
2003, criticism somewhat subsided. In January, Kadyrov,
who was previously the region's chief Muslim cleric,
traveled to Saudi Arabia to seek much-needed investment
and aid. He called on Saudi businessmen to invest in
Chechnya to revive its oil sector. Kadyrov's mission
indicated possible wider cooperation between the world's
two biggest oil producers and exporters.
Shortly
after Kadyrov's mission to Saudi Arabia, Russia's top
oil company LUKoil signed a major agreement with the
government of Saudi Arabia for the development of
natural gas deposits. LUKoil reportedly plans to invest
up to US$200 million in the project.
Relations
between Russia and Saudi Arabia were given another major
boost in September 2003, when Saudi Arabia's de facto
ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz, paid a
historic visit to Russia. In that month Russian and
Saudi officials signed a five-year agreement on
cooperation in the oil and gas sector. The framework
accord could lead to deals worth up to $25 billion. It
remains to be seen whether Kadyrov's successor, who is
to be elected by September this year, will be able to
sustain contacts with Saudi Arabia.
Chechnya's
own crude oil production is relatively insignificant: it
reached 36,160 barrels per day (bpd) (1.8 million tons)
in 2003. In 2004, Chechnya aims to pump 40,270 bpd (2
million tons) of crude. Chechnya's oil reserves,
estimated at some 220 million barrels (30 million tons),
are sufficient to support current crude oil production
levels for some 15 years.
In the wake of its
civil war, Chechnya needs the time and capital to repair
the damage to oil-related facilities. Many of Chechnya's
oil wells are low-yield, and after being out of
operation for years some wells may never be repaired.
However, Chechnya's oil resources have triggered some
controversy: Kadyrov had insisted that the regional
government take over local oil wells. He also wanted to
have Chechnya's oil revenues reflected in the republic's
coffers.
Meanwhile, the security situation for
Chechnya's oil sector remains unstable. In 2003, some
1.17 million barrels (160,000 tons) of crude were stolen
from oil pipelines in Chechnya. Last month, separatist
forces bombed four oil wells, setting them on fire.
With Moscow's counter-insurgency efforts in
Chechnya now having been dealt a serious blow, Russian
President Vladimir Putin pledged "unavoidable
retribution" for the terrorists responsible for the
assassination of Kadyrov. Kadyrov was a true hero, Putin
was quoted by the Kremlin press service as saying after
meeting Akhmad's son, Ramzan, on Monday. In response,
Ramzan pledged his loyalty to what he described as "the
Chechen people's choice".
Russian politicians
suggested a further crackdown on Chechen militants
should take place. Dmitry Rogozin, head of the
nationalist Rodina parliament faction, urged the Kremlin
to impose direct presidential rule in Chechnya and
punish the perpetrators of the attack.
The
pro-Moscow Chechen government said in a statement that
the bomb attack and Kadyrov's demise "will unite the
people of Chechnya to fight terrorism". The statement
also described the perpetrators as "terrorists and
criminals". Chechen officials also blamed separatist
leaders Aslan Maskhadov and Shamil Basayev of complicity
in the attack.
Exiled tycoon and vocal critic of
Putin, Boris Berezovsky, lost no time to describe
Kadyrov's murder as "an absolute defeat of Putin in
Chechnya". The Russian authorities "demonstrated their
weakness", he was quoted as saying by Ekho Moskvy radio.
Berezovsky, who had previously maintained close ties
with Chechen militants, also urged Russia to seek a
political solution for Chechnya.
Kadyrov's
rebellious past Kadyrov was not always
pro-Moscow: he interrupted his religious studies in Oman
in 1991 to join the rebellion in Chechnya. During the
first war in Chechnya in 1994-1996, Kadyrov, then the
region's chief Muslim cleric, called on Muslims to fight
a jihad against the Russian army. Yet when the second
Russian campaign in Chechnya started in 1999, Kadyrov
sided with Moscow, citing his desire to bring peace to
the region.
Not surprisingly, the former cleric
was from then on seen as a traitor by the militants.
According to Kadyrov himself, he had previously survived
13 assassination attempts.
When Kadyrov won
presidential elections in Chechnya he was virtually
unchallenged, winning 81 percent of what some called a
fixed vote. One of the leading candidates, Aslan
Aslakhanov, withdrew after being offered a job as a
Kremlin adviser by Putin. Kadyrov, a strong leader with
a sizable following in eastern Chechnya, was a
cornerstone of the Kremlin policy of "Chechenization".
He employed his private army of some 3,000 armed men,
headed by his youngest son Ramzan, security chief, to
crack down on separatist militants. The force allegedly
intimidated Kadyrov's opponents, according to his
critics.
Ramzan has emerged as the lead
candidate to succeed the president, having been
appointed first deputy head of the regional government
on Monday, the same day as his father's funeral. If
supported by the Kremlin, the younger Kadyrov could win
a new presidential election in Chechnya, which should be
held no later than September.
Notably, after
Putin's meeting with Ramzan there was speculation of
possible dynastic succession in Chechnya. Presumably,
with a strong tradition of vendettas in Chechnya, Ramzan
is highly unlikely to side with the separatists.
However, it remains to be seen whether Ramzan could
replicate his father's successful dealings with Saudi
princes.
Kadyrov's demise also underlines
similarities between Iraqi insurgents and Chechen
fighters. Both seem to build their respective tactics
around the nexus of high-profile terrorist attacks.
Iraqi insurgents, like Chechen fighters, are armed with
Kalashnikov automatic rifles and RPG-7 antitank grenade
launchers. Fighters from Chechnya are reported to have
been smuggled into Iraq to join the ongoing battles in
Fallujah, among others.
Incidentally, among some
15,000 private bodyguards and security personnel
operating inside Iraq (and being paid up to $1,500 a
day) there are veterans of anti-insurgency conflicts,
including former soldiers who fought in Chechnya.
Another piece of the Russian know-how in
Chechnya is plundering government monies, allocated for
reviving the local infrastructure. For instance,
according to findings of the Russian audit chamber
announced last March, in 2003 the Russian Federal
Government allocated 22 billion rubles (more than $700
million) to rebuild Chechnya. According to the chamber,
at least one tenth of that funding was embezzled.
Of course, the stakes are higher in Iraq. The
World Bank has identified $55 billion worth of work that
is needed to rebuild Iraq over the next four years. One
tenth of that would amount to a considerable bounty for
anyone.
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