Russia: Yet another Central Asian
state By Sergei Blagov
MOSCOW
- In an unprecedented step, Moscow has moved to join a
purely Central Asian grouping, in an apparent attempt to
check Washington's growing clout in a region of
geopolitical competition between the United States and
Russia.
As Central Asian head of states met in
the Kazakh capital Astana over the weekend, they decided
to accept Russia into their regional organization.
Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev told journalists
that "a very important decision was taken".
"Russia submitted an application to join the
Central Asian Cooperation Organization and we decided
that Russia would join the CACO founding treaty,"
Nazarbayev said.
Russian Security Council
Secretary Igor Ivanov told the meeting in Astana that
multilateral integration was supposed to face the
challenges of globalization. The vague statement left
observers wondering whether US policies in the region
were seen as a principal "challenge of globalization".
CACO, founded in 1994 as the Central Asian
Economic Cooperation Organization, provides a framework
for addressing regional and cross-border issues, such as
the sharing of water and energy resources. The group now
includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan. Reclusive Turkmenistan remains the only
Central Asian state not part of the organization.
Now CACO pledges to create a regional common
market and free-trade zone within 15 years. It remains
to be seen whether CACO will be renamed once again in
the wake of Russia's accession.
Russia's move to
join CACO is to be complemented by a military component.
On Monday, Russian General Sergei Chernomordin, head of
the rapid-deployment force of the Collective Security
Treaty Organization, announced that the force would hold
major war games in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan in August.
In the meantime, Moscow seems to remain
suspicious of the United States' intentions in Central
Asia. Last week, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister
Vyacheslav Trubnikov bluntly stated that the US would
not honor its promises and would stay in Central Asia.
"The US will not leave the former Soviet states.
American infrastructure is to remain there," he said.
When the United States established bases at
Khanabad, Uzbekistan, and at Manas, Kyrgyzstan, in the
wake of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks,
Washington promised that US forces would stay only as
long as the regional terrorism threat remained.
Moscow has been insisting that the US military
presence in the region is temporary and should be ended
after anti-terrorism action in Afghanistan. Russia would
accept US bases in Central Asia no longer than the
anti-terrorism operation in Afghanistan, Russian Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov has repeatedly reiterated.
Russia cannot accept the presence of
non-regional states in Central Asia, either the US or
China, Trubnikov said, adding that "it's an area of our
vital interests, after all. It's our priority, and of
course presence of non-regional states cannot please
us."
Trubnikov's suggestion that China is also
unwanted in Central Asia comes as a bit of surprise.
Just a few weeks ago, the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization, a six-member group that comprises Russia,
China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, pledged to address regional security
concerns.
Meanwhile, Moscow is pursuing its
agenda through a number of post-Soviet groupings. Late
last month, the presidents of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus
and Kazakhstan met in Ukraine to discuss a "Common
Economic Space" (CES), modeled loosely on the European
Union. The four leaders agreed to promote greater
coordination of economic policies and trade, including a
free-trade zone. The group's next meeting is to take
place in Kazakhstan in September.
Russia has
been keen to unite its former Soviet brethren in a new
economic grouping. The CES free-trade zone could be set
up by 2010. Moreover, Russia has been suggesting that
its ruble should dominate transactions among post-Soviet
nations, an idea reminiscent of the Soviet-era
"transferable ruble". However, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has dismissed claims that the CES was
somewhat reminiscent of the former Union of Soviet
Socialist Republics and insisted that a return to the
Soviet past was impossible.
Nazarbayev, whom
Putin credited with proposing the idea, emphasized that
it was "not a closed organization" and that the other
former Soviet nations would be encouraged to move toward
membership.
Meanwhile, the CES has been seen as
an apparent potential counterweight to US influence,
which has materialized in the GUUAM group - an acronym
for Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and
Moldova.
GUUAM, a long-dormant group of former
Soviet states, has been trying to make a comeback. The
catalyst for GUUAM's re-emergence from oblivion appears
to be the US, whose interest in the group has risen
recently. The US reportedly helped persuade Uzbekistan,
which had suspended its membership in 2002, to rejoin
the grouping.
That the United States would take
an interest in GUUAM at this point is not especially
surprising. GUUAM countries are located in the Caspian
Basin and Black Sea regions, which have emerged over the
past decade as a zone of geopolitical competition
between Washington and Moscow over energy development
and export routes. In addition, some GUUAM members have
uneasy relationships with Russia, making the United
States a logical strategic partner.
Until
recently, officials in Moscow remained largely silent
about the GUUAM developments. But Russian media left
little doubt that the Kremlin takes a dim view of the
organization. In general, Russia sees GUUAM's prospects
as limited.
Moreover, Moscow has recently made
it clear that it disapproves of GUUAM as a pro-American
group. Trubnikov has described GUUAM as an "absolutely
unnatural entity stuffed with US money". GUUAM is
designed "to counter what they call Russian neo-imperial
ambitions", Trubnikov said.
A primary source of
tension for GUUAM and Russia is competing trade and
transit interests. GUUAM states have supported a
trans-Caucasus transportation corridor, known as
TRASECA, which would link countries in Central Asia, the
Caspian Basin and Black Sea regions, bypassing Russia.
At the same time, Moscow is seeking to promote a
so-called north-south transport corridor, which involves
Iran.
However, Moscow has been keen to avoid an
impression that it is moving to oppose the US. This week
Russia was persuaded to join the US-backed
non-proliferation initiative. Russia's Foreign Ministry
announced on Monday that Moscow would join the group of
core countries in the Proliferation Security Initiative
(PSI). Moscow has made yet another gesture toward
Washington. Russia is going to increase oil output and
exports regardless of world prices, Finance Minister
Alexei Kudrin said in a radio broadcast over the
weekend.
Kudrin's comments came after visiting
US Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham last week reiterated
calls for Russia to boost oil supplies to the United
States. Russia is interested in gaining a 10-12 percent
share of the US crude-oil market, Prime Minister Mikhail
Fradkov said after meeting with Abraham. The call to
increase export capacity was a main point in Putin's
State of the Nation address last week.
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